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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Fox Employees' Retirement

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'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Fox employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Fox employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Fox employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Fox employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Fox preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Fox employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Fox with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does 21st Century Fox America Inc. determine the funding status of its pension plan, and what key metrics are utilized in evaluating its financial health? Employees may want to understand the significance of the Funding Target Attainment Percentage and how it influences their retirement benefits, especially as it pertains to both the general and specific circumstances affecting funding levels.

Funding Status and Metrics: 21st Century Fox America Inc. determines the funding status of its pension plan by calculating the Funding Target Attainment Percentage (FTAP), which divides the plan’s net assets by its liabilities. For the 2022 plan year, the FTAP was 125.79%. This metric is crucial because it indicates how well the plan is funded. A high FTAP suggests that the plan is well-funded and capable of meeting its obligations, which directly influences employees' retirement security(21st Century Fox Americ…).

What considerations does 21st Century Fox America Inc. take into account when deciding the investment strategies for its pension plan? Employees should be informed about the policy guidelines that govern the allocation of the plan's assets, including which asset classes are prioritized and the expected outcomes from such investment decisions.

Investment Strategy Considerations: The company follows specific investment policies that establish guidelines for asset allocation within the pension plan. These policies ensure that assets are allocated among major categories like equities, fixed income, and cash. The fiduciaries of the plan determine the target ranges for each category, aiming for stable returns and long-term viability(21st Century Fox Americ…).

How can employees of 21st Century Fox America Inc. assess their rights and the processes involved should the pension plan terminate? This includes evaluating the stipulations provided by federal laws that dictate what happens to vested benefits upon termination and what steps participants can take to secure their entitlements.

Rights and Pension Termination: Should the pension plan terminate, federal law requires 21st Century Fox America Inc. to follow certain procedures. If fully funded, the plan would undergo a standard termination, where an insurance company provides annuities, or a lump sum may be offered. In underfunded cases, a distress termination could occur, where the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) takes over(21st Century Fox Americ…).

What are the recent changes in federal regulations influencing how pension plans, such as the one at 21st Century Fox America Inc., calculate their liabilities? Employees need to grasp the implications of these regulations on their future benefits, specifically regarding the new methodologies for determining financial sufficiency.

Impact of Federal Regulations: Recent changes in federal regulations, including the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, adjusted the methodologies for calculating pension liabilities. Plans now incorporate a 25-year interest rate average, which typically results in higher interest rates and lower liabilities, affecting the funding status and employer contributions(21st Century Fox Americ…).

In the context of 21st Century Fox America Inc., what is the role of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) in guaranteeing pension benefits, and what are the criteria for ensuring benefits remain secure? Understanding how the PBGC functions and its limits is critical for employees planning their retirements.

Role of PBGC: The PBGC provides a guarantee for vested pension benefits in the event of plan termination. The guarantee is subject to legal limits, which vary depending on the participant’s age and the plan’s termination date. For 2023, the maximum annual benefit for a 65-year-old retiree was $81,000(21st Century Fox Americ…).

What steps can employees take to access information related to their pension plan from 21st Century Fox America Inc., and how can they ensure they receive timely updates regarding their benefits? Details about the channels available for inquiries and the importance of keeping informed about funding levels and benefits are crucial.

Accessing Pension Information: Employees can access information about their pension plan through the Disney Benefits Center by calling (800) 354-3970. Staying informed about the plan’s funding levels and benefits is essential, and employees are encouraged to review the annual funding notice for updates(21st Century Fox Americ…).

How does 21st Century Fox America Inc. manage the risks associated with its pension investments, particularly in a volatile market climate? Employees could benefit from insights into risk management strategies and how they affect long-term pension viability.

Risk Management in Investments: To manage investment risks, 21st Century Fox America Inc. adheres to a diversified asset allocation strategy. This approach helps mitigate market volatility and ensures the long-term sustainability of pension benefits despite changing economic conditions(21st Century Fox Americ…).

In what ways can a participant's years of service and salary history with 21st Century Fox America Inc. affect their retirement benefits, and what mechanisms are in place to ensure accurate benefit calculations? Exploring the relationship between service, salary, and pension outcomes can help clarify employee expectations.

Service and Salary Impact on Benefits: The pension plan is structured to account for employees' years of service and salary history in calculating their retirement benefits. These factors directly affect the benefit amount, and the plan ensures that accurate records are maintained to reflect this information(21st Century Fox Americ…).

What unique benefits does 21st Century Fox America Inc. offer that may enhance its pension plan, and how can employees maximize their advantages while planning for retirement? Understanding available supplemental benefits can empower employees in their retirement planning journeys.

Enhancing Pension Benefits: Employees of 21st Century Fox America Inc. may benefit from supplemental retirement benefits, including early retirement options or disability benefits. Understanding and maximizing these options can significantly impact long-term retirement planning(21st Century Fox Americ…).

How can employees of 21st Century Fox America Inc. get in touch with the Disney Benefits Center to inquire further about their employee benefits or to clarify any aspects of the pension plan? Having clear contact information and the process for accessing support can greatly assist employees in navigating their retirement preparation.

Contacting the Disney Benefits Center: Employees can reach out to the Disney Benefits Center at (800) 354-3970 for any inquiries related to their pension plan or other employee benefits. This resource is crucial for clarifying benefit details and addressing any concerns(21st Century Fox Americ…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Fox Corporation offers a 401(k) plan and a pension plan to its employees. The 401(k) plan includes a company match, typically up to 4-6% of the employee's salary, with a partial match beyond that percentage. The company also offers a defined benefit pension plan, although specific details like the pension formula, years of service, or age qualifications were not detailed in the sources reviewed. However, Fox emphasizes comprehensive benefits, including financial security through retirement plans.

In 2023, Fox News underwent significant layoffs as part of a broader restructuring effort, largely driven by the financial strain following the $787.5 million lawsuit settlement with Dominion Voting Systems. These layoffs, including those from the investigative unit, are believed to be part of cost-cutting measures. This is critical to address due to the current economic and political environment, where the company must adjust to financial pressures while maintaining investor confidence and adapting to changing tax regulations.

Stock Options: Fox Corporation offers stock options that allow employees to purchase company stock at a predetermined price, known as the exercise or strike price, after the options have vested. Vesting periods for these options vary, typically ranging from 1 to 5 years. Once vested, employees can exercise their options within a specified period, generally up to 10 years from the grant date. The value of the stock options depends on the market price of Fox Corporation’s stock at the time of exercise; if the market price is higher than the exercise price, the options are "in the money" and can be profitable. Stock options at Fox are primarily available to executives and senior management, although some plans extend to other key employees depending on their role within the company. Restricted Stock Units (RSUs): Fox Corporation also provides RSUs, which represent a grant of company stock that is transferred to employees once the RSUs vest. Unlike stock options, RSUs do not require the employee to purchase the stock; instead, the shares are automatically granted at no cost upon vesting. The value of RSUs is more predictable, as it is tied directly to the market value of Fox Corporation’s stock at the time of vesting. The vested shares are considered taxable income and are typically subject to withholding for taxes. RSUs at Fox are usually granted to a broader group of employees, including executives, senior management, and other employees as part of their annual performance reviews or hiring packages.

Fox Corporation offers a comprehensive range of health benefits to its employees, which are designed to support their well-being from the first day of employment. The health benefits package includes medical, dental, and vision coverage, which are available without any waiting period for many positions. In addition to these core health benefits, Fox also provides flexible spending accounts (FSAs), life insurance, business travel insurance, and long-term disability insurance. Fox places a strong emphasis on whole-person health, including not just physical but also mental health support through their Employee Assistance Program (EAP). This reflects broader trends in employee health benefits, where companies are increasingly focusing on holistic wellness programs that address both physical and mental well-being, especially given the rising costs of healthcare and pharmaceuticals.

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