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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Gannett Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: For Gannett, the healthcare provider is UnitedHealthcare, which has been affiliated with the company and serves its employees. In 2026, healthcare costs are expected to rise substantially, with many states experiencing dramatic premium increases for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans. With the potential expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies, more than 22 million Americans could face out-of-pocket premium hikes exceeding 75%. Contributing factors include escalating medical costs, projected increases in provider reimbursements, and aggressive rate hikes from major insurers, resulting in an overall perfect storm pushing affordability beyond reach for many families. As these factors coalesce, it's crucial for Gannett employees and ACA marketplace enrollees to stay informed and consider their healthcare options carefully for the upcoming year. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Gannett employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Gannett employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Gannett employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Gannett employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Gannett preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Gannett employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Gannett with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan ensure that members are informed about their pension benefits, and what steps should an employee take to understand their earned Pension Credits within this Plan?

Member Information on Pension Credits: Members are informed about their pension benefits and earned Pension Credits through an annual statement provided by the Board of Trustees. This statement includes details about years of service, vesting status, and accrued Pension Credits. Members are encouraged to keep their contact information updated to ensure they receive all pertinent information.

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Contribution Rates Structure: The pension contributions by employers are structured based on collective bargaining agreements. These contributions are pivotal in determining the monthly benefits members receive upon retirement. The rate of contributions, along with the number of years of service and accumulated Pension Credits, directly influences the calculation of retirement benefits.

Can you elaborate on the different types of pensions offered by The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan, including the eligibility criteria and the benefits associated with each type?

Types of Pensions Offered: The plan offers several types of pensions: Regular Pension, Early Pension, Disability Pension, and Deferred Pension. Each type has specific eligibility criteria: Regular Pension is available upon reaching Normal Retirement Age, generally age 65. Early Pension can be taken from age 55, provided certain service and Pension Credit conditions are met. Disability Pension is awarded if a member becomes disabled as per the plan's criteria and Social Security Administration’s confirmation. Deferred Pension applies if a member leaves employment after vesting but before qualifying for early or regular pension.

How does The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan address the calculation of pensions for members who have participated in more than one pension contribution plan, and what specific guidelines govern these calculations?

Multiple Pension Plans Participation: If a member has participated in more than one pension contribution plan, their pensions are calculated by taking into account all the Pension Credits accumulated across different plans. Specific guidelines ensure that the benefits from all plans are integrated correctly to reflect total earnings and contributions.

What implications does the merger of the NewsGuild-CWA Adjustable Pension Plan into The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan have for current and future pension benefits for employees covered under both plans?

Implications of Plan Mergers: The merger of the NewsGuild-CWA Adjustable Pension Plan into The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan ensured that no accrued benefits were reduced. All benefits from the merged plan are honored, with provisions made to integrate the benefits and maintain the financial integrity of the merged plan.

How should an employee of The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan respond if they experience a change in employment status that may affect their pension eligibility and what steps do they need to take to maintain their benefits?

Change in Employment Status: Members experiencing a change in employment status that might affect their pension eligibility should immediately notify the plan administrators. Steps include reviewing the impact on their Pension Credits and adjusting their retirement planning accordingly.

In the event of an employeeâ€™s death, what provisions are made under The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan for survivor benefits, and how can family members navigate the process of claiming these benefits?

Provisions for Survivor Benefits: In case of a member’s death, the plan provides survivor benefits to the spouse or domestic partner. These benefits are structured based on the type of pension the member was receiving or entitled to receive, ensuring ongoing support for the beneficiaries.

How does The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan define what constitutes "disqualifying employment," and what are the consequences for a member if they engage in such employment before reaching normal retirement age?

Disqualifying Employment Definition: Disqualifying employment under The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan refers to any job that might affect a member's pension benefits if engaged in before reaching the normal retirement age. Engaging in such employment could potentially suspend or reduce pension benefits.

What resources does The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan provide for employees seeking assistance with their pension plans, and who specifically should they contact for detailed inquiries regarding their benefits?

Resources for Assistance: Members seeking assistance with their pension plans are encouraged to contact the Board of Trustees directly. The plan’s office provides detailed inquiries and support regarding benefit calculations, eligibility, and other pension-related questions.

How can an employee contact The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan for further information about their pension benefits, and what specific inquiries should they be prepared to discuss during their interaction with the Office?

Contacting for Further Information: Members can contact The Newspaper Guild International Pension Plan office via provided contact details for further information about their pension benefits. When interacting with the office, members should be prepared to discuss their employment history, Pension Credit details, and any specific questions about their retirement benefits.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Pension Plan Name: Identify the name of Gannett’s pension plan. Years of Service and Age Qualification: Determine the requirements for eligibility in terms of years of service and age. Pension Formula: Find out the formula used to calculate pension benefits. Review Gannett's 401(k) Plan: 401(k) Plan Name: Identify the name of Gannett’s 401(k) plan. Eligibility: Determine who qualifies for participation in the 401(k) plan. Gannett Employee Pension Plan

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Gannett, the publisher of USA Today, announced a series of layoffs and restructuring efforts aimed at reducing operational costs. The company faced significant financial challenges due to declining print advertising revenues and increased digital competition. Gannett's workforce reduction strategy was part of a broader plan to streamline operations and focus on digital transformation. The move also involved consolidating regional newsrooms and reducing staff in various departments to improve overall efficiency. This restructuring is crucial to address, given the current economic climate where media companies are grappling with shifting revenue models and increasing operational costs. Benefits, Pensions, and 401(k) Changes: In response to these challenges, Gannett made adjustments to its employee benefits, including changes to its pension plan and 401(k) offerings. The company revised its pension benefits, moving to a more streamlined defined contribution plan, and made modifications to its 401(k) match program. These changes reflect the broader trend of companies reassessing their retirement benefits in light of economic pressures and the evolving investment landscape. For employees and retirees, understanding these adjustments is essential, given the current investment environment and the impact of such changes on long-term financial planning.

Gannett provided stock options and RSUs primarily to executives and senior management. The options are typically granted as part of the annual compensation review and vest over a period of time, usually four years. Gannett uses RSUs to retain and motivate key employees, with the vesting schedule commonly tied to performance and tenure. (Source: Gannett 2022 Annual Report, p. 32)

Visit Gannett’s official website to check for health benefits information. Employee Benefits Websites: Look at websites like Glassdoor, Indeed, or LinkedIn for employee reviews and insights into their health benefits. News Outlets: Search reputable news websites like Reuters, Bloomberg, or CNBC for recent news regarding Gannett’s health benefits and any changes in healthcare offerings. Industry Reports: Review industry-specific reports or publications for detailed information on Gannett’s employee benefits. Benefit-focused Websites: Check websites that focus specifically on employee benefits, such as BenefitsPro or Employee Benefit News. Search Results for Gannett's Health Benefits Information: Gannett Official Website: Benefits Overview: Gannett offers a variety of health benefits including medical, dental, and vision coverage. They also provide wellness programs and employee assistance programs (EAP). Acronyms: Common acronyms include EAP (Employee Assistance Program), HDHP (High Deductible Health Plan), and FSA (Flexible Spending Account). Glassdoor: Employee Reviews: Employees have reported that Gannett’s health benefits include competitive health insurance plans, but some have noted concerns about high premiums and limited coverage options. Acronyms: Employees often mention PPO (Preferred Provider Organization) and HSA (Health Savings Account). Indeed: Employee Insights: Reviews suggest that Gannett offers standard health benefits with options for dental and vision care. Some employees have commented on the variability of benefits depending on job role and tenure.

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