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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Gray Television Employees' Retirement

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'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Gray Television employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Gray Television employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Gray Television employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Gray Television employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Gray Television preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Gray Television employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Gray Television with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What type of retirement plan does Gray Television offer to its employees?

Gray Television offers a 401(k) savings plan to help employees save for retirement.

Does Gray Television match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Gray Television provides a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which enhances employees' retirement savings.

How can employees at Gray Television enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in the 401(k) plan through the company's HR portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

What is the eligibility requirement for Gray Television employees to participate in the 401(k) plan?

Most employees at Gray Television are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a specified period of employment, typically 30 days.

Can Gray Television employees choose how their 401(k) contributions are invested?

Yes, employees at Gray Television can choose from a variety of investment options for their 401(k) contributions.

What is the maximum contribution limit for Gray Television employees participating in the 401(k) plan?

The maximum contribution limit for Gray Television employees is subject to IRS regulations, which may change annually.

Does Gray Television offer any financial education resources for employees regarding the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Gray Television provides financial education resources and tools to help employees make informed decisions about their 401(k) savings.

Are there any fees associated with managing the 401(k) plan at Gray Television?

Yes, like most 401(k) plans, there may be administrative fees associated with managing the plan at Gray Television.

Can Gray Television employees take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, Gray Television allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to specific terms and conditions.

What happens to a Gray Television employee's 401(k) savings if they leave the company?

If a Gray Television employee leaves the company, they can roll over their 401(k) savings into another retirement account or take a distribution, depending on their preference.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Gray Television Pension Plan Name of the Plan: Gray Television does not appear to have a traditional defined benefit pension plan as of the latest available reports. Eligibility: Gray Television primarily offers a 401(k) plan rather than a traditional pension plan. Pension Formula: Not applicable.. Gray Television 401(k) Plan Name of the Plan: Gray Television 401(k) Plan. Eligibility: Employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing 90 days of service. 401(k) Plan Details: The plan includes employer matching contributions up to a certain percentage.

Restructuring and Layoffs: In August 2023, Gray Television announced a restructuring plan to streamline operations and improve efficiency. This included the elimination of certain positions, particularly in non-core areas. The company cited the need to adapt to changing media consumption patterns and economic pressures as key reasons for these changes. The restructuring is part of a broader strategy to enhance profitability and maintain competitive advantage in the evolving media landscape. It is crucial to address this news due to the current economic environment, which may impact job stability and career planning in the media sector. Changes to Company Benefits and Retirement Plans: In July 2024, Gray Television updated its employee benefits package, which included modifications to its pension and 401(k) plans. The company introduced changes aimed at aligning retirement benefits with industry standards and addressing financial sustainability. These adjustments are part of a broader effort to manage costs and ensure long-term financial health amidst fluctuating market conditions. Employees should stay informed about these changes due to the implications they may have on retirement planning and financial security in the context of ongoing economic uncertainty.

Gray Television (GT) Stock Options and RSUs (2022) Stock Options: Gray Television (GT) offered stock options to select executives and senior management in 2022. The options were granted as part of the company’s long-term incentive plan to attract and retain top talent. Restricted Stock Units (RSU): RSUs were granted to executives as well as key employees based on performance and tenure. These units were designed to align the interests of employees with shareholders. Gray Television (GT) Stock Options and RSUs (2023) Stock Options: In 2023, Gray Television (GT) continued to provide stock options primarily to senior executives and high-performing employees. These options were part of a revised incentive compensation plan. Restricted Stock Units (RSU): RSUs were granted to a broader range of employees, including mid-level management, with vesting schedules tied to performance metrics. Gray Television (GT) Stock Options and RSUs (2024) Stock Options: The company issued new stock options in 2024 under a refreshed equity incentive program. These options were available mainly to upper management and key contributors. Restricted Stock Units (RSU): RSUs in 2024 were expanded to include more employees, aiming to foster long-term commitment and reward performance over time.

Health Benefits Information (2022-2024) 1. Gray Television Official Website: Website: Gray Television Careers Details: Gray Television offers a variety of health benefits including medical, dental, and vision insurance. Their benefits package typically includes options for both employee and family coverage, with various plan tiers available to cater to different needs. 2. Health Insurance Plans: Types of Plans: Gray Television provides several health insurance plans which may include Health Maintenance Organization (HMO), Preferred Provider Organization (PPO), and High Deductible Health Plans (HDHPs). Specific details about plan costs and coverage options are generally available to employees upon hiring and during open enrollment periods. 3. Employee Benefits Review Websites: Glassdoor: Employee reviews often mention health benefits in the context of overall compensation. The benefits are generally considered competitive, with particular emphasis on the quality of medical coverage. Indeed: Similar to Glassdoor, reviews on Indeed highlight that health benefits are a key part of Gray Television’s compensation package. There might be variations in the benefits offered based on job position and location. Payscale: Offers insights into average salaries and benefits, noting that Gray Television provides standard health insurance options. LinkedIn: Discussions on LinkedIn sometimes include employee testimonials about the company’s benefits, including healthcare. These reviews typically praise the availability of comprehensive health plans. Comparably: Provides information on employee satisfaction with health benefits. Gray Television’s benefits are generally rated well compared to industry standards. 4. Recent Healthcare News: Healthcare Initiatives: Recent updates or changes to health benefits are often tied to broader company policy changes or industry trends. Specific details about recent changes might be less frequently updated in public sources but can be available through employee reviews or official company announcements. Employee Health Programs: Gray Television may offer wellness programs or health initiatives, such as mental health support or wellness challenges, though specific details might not always be prominently featured. Healthcare-Related Terms and Acronyms HMO (Health Maintenance Organization): A type of health insurance plan that requires members to get care from a network of doctors and hospitals. PPO (Preferred Provider Organization): A plan that offers more flexibility in choosing healthcare providers and does not require referrals for specialists. HDHP (High Deductible Health Plan): A plan with lower premiums and higher deductibles, often paired with Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). HSA (Health Savings Account): A tax-advantaged account that can be used to pay for qualified medical expenses, often associated with HDHPs.