New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Graybar Electric Employees' Retirement

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Graybar Electric employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Graybar Electric employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Graybar Electric employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Graybar Electric employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Graybar Electric preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Graybar Electric employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Graybar Electric with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What steps must an employee take to ensure they accurately calculate their pension benefits when planning for retirement under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995? Employees need to understand the various factors that contribute to benefit calculations, including years of service credits, age, and any early retirement reductions. Participants should also familiarize themselves with the formulas outlined in the plan regarding Normal Retirement and Early Retirement benefits.

Employees under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 can ensure accurate pension calculations by reviewing the plan's formulas, which consider factors like service credits, age, and early retirement reductions. The plan provides specific calculation methods for Normal and Early Retirement pensions, so employees should refer to their accrued credits and apply the appropriate formula based on the years of service to get a precise benefit estimate(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

How does the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, treat periods of active service compared to breaks in service when determining eligibility for pension benefits? Employees should be aware that their length of service is critical to establishing eligibility, and any periods identified as breaks in service may impact their pension status. Understanding the definition and implications of breaks in service can be vital for maximizing retirement benefits.

Service periods under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 are critical for pension eligibility and accrual. Breaks in service, defined as periods where an employee is not credited with at least 250 hours in a plan year, can disrupt benefit accrual and participation. However, the plan provides grace periods for specific situations such as disability or maternity, preventing these gaps from affecting eligibility(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

What are the implications of returning to work after starting to receive benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, and how can it affect ongoing pension payments? It's important for employees to recognize the conditions classified as "Disqualifying Employment" that can lead to suspending their pension benefits. Knowing how working while receiving benefits influences the plan can help retirees make informed decisions about their post-retirement employment.

Returning to work after starting to receive benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 can result in a suspension of benefits if the work qualifies as "Disqualifying Employment." Employees should check the plan’s definitions to see if their employment will affect their pension payments. Generally, working over 40 hours per month in covered employment or similar trades can trigger a suspension(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

In what ways can an employee's spousal status influence the benefits they receive from the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995? Employees need to understand how their marital status affects pension distributions, including survivor benefits and waivers. This knowledge is crucial for planning, as certain benefit structures depend significantly on whether the participant has a qualified spouse.

Spousal status significantly affects the distribution of benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995. If an employee is married, the default pension option is the Joint and Survivor Annuity, which provides a continued payout to the spouse upon the participant’s death. The plan also outlines the necessary waivers and consents required for changing these benefits based on marital status(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

How do changes in the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regulations affect the contribution limits and benefit payouts related to the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995? Employees should keep informed on the most current IRS guidelines, as they directly influence how benefits are calculated and dispersed. Awareness of IRS limits can prevent unexpected tax penalties and ensure compliance with pension law.

IRS regulations play an important role in determining contribution limits and payout structures under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995. Changes to IRS rules may affect the maximum allowable benefits and tax treatments. Employees should keep up to date with IRS guidelines to avoid potential tax penalties and ensure their pension plan remains in compliance(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

What documentation is required for employees to maintain their eligibility for pension benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, especially after significant life events such as marriage, divorce, or disability? Employees must notify the plan office of life changes and provide necessary documentation. Understanding what these documents are and how they should be submitted is crucial for maintaining eligibility and accessing benefits.

Significant life events such as marriage, divorce, or disability require timely submission of documentation to the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 to maintain eligibility. This may include marriage certificates, divorce decrees, or proof of disability. Employees should contact the plan office to ensure all required paperwork is properly submitted to avoid interruptions in benefits(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

What processes are in place for employees to appeal a denial of benefits under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, and what timelines must they adhere to? Employees should be aware of their rights under ERISA concerning claims and appeals, including the time limits for submitting appeals. This knowledge ensures they are equipped to address any potential issues they may encounter during the pension claim process.

If a claim for benefits is denied, the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 provides an appeals process. Employees must file a written appeal within 60 days of receiving the denial notice. The appeal should include any relevant documentation, and employees should follow the timeline and procedures outlined in the plan to ensure proper consideration of their case(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

How can employees determine if their employer is meeting its financial obligation to the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, particularly regarding contributions? Understanding the mechanisms for verifying employer contributions can help employees ensure that they are accruing the appropriate benefits. Employees should know whom to contact and what reports they can access to gather this information.

Employees concerned about their employer meeting its contribution obligations to the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 can contact the plan’s administrative office for verification. The plan allows participants to access contribution reports to confirm that employers are properly crediting their accounts(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

What resources are available through the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, for employees seeking to enhance their understanding of their retirement options and benefits? Employees should seek detailed information provided through the plan documents and know how to access educational resources, such as workshops or one-on-one sessions with plan administrators. Utilizing available resources ensures they are making informed decisions about their retirement.

The Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995 offers various resources to help employees understand their retirement options. These include the plan’s summary description, workshops, and individual consultations with plan administrators. Employees should make use of these tools to gain a clear understanding of their pension and plan effectively(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).

How can employees contact the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, for additional questions or clarification regarding their retirement benefits or the plan's provisions? It is essential for employees to know how to reach the plan's administrative office or the Board of Trustees for inquiries. Understanding the contact methods, including phone numbers and office addresses, greatly aids in effective communication when navigating retirement planning. These questions are framed to guide employees in understanding their rights and responsibilities as they prepare for retirement under the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW

For additional questions or clarification regarding the Electricians Pension Plan, IBEW 995, employees can contact the plan's administrative office at the provided phone number or address. The office offers support for all queries related to pension benefits, eligibility, and documentation(Electricians_Pension_Pl…).