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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Halliburton Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Halliburton: Halliburton primarily utilizes the services of Aetna for its employee health benefits. Aetna offers a range of health insurance plans, including employer-sponsored coverage that meets the needs of Halliburton's workforce. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: In 2026, Halliburton may face significant increases in healthcare costs, impacting its employee benefits strategy. The health insurance marketplace is experiencing anticipated premium hikes, with some states potentially exceeding a staggering 60%. Contributing factors include rising medical costs, the possible expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies, and aggressive price adjustments by major insurers. As a result, Halliburton might need to adjust its health plan offerings, explore cost-sharing strategies, and prepare for a financial landscape where employee out-of-pocket expenses could rise dramatically. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Halliburton employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Halliburton employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Halliburton employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Halliburton employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Halliburton preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Halliburton employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Halliburton with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the main eligibility criteria for employees under the Halliburton Retirement Plan, and how have these criteria evolved since the plan was frozen to new participants after December 31, 1996? In what ways do these eligibility requirements impact current and future Halliburton employees?

Eligibility Criteria: The Halliburton Retirement Plan was frozen to new participants after December 31, 1996. Employees who were active participants and at least 55 years old by that date remain eligible under the plan. The eligibility criteria have remained largely unchanged for these participants, affecting current employees by limiting new enrollments, which can reduce the overall scope of retirement benefits offered to newer hires(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

How does the funding mechanism of the Halliburton Retirement and Savings Plan impact the retirement benefits provided to employees? Discuss the actuarially determined contribution method and how it aligns with IRS regulations for pension plans in 2024.

Funding Mechanism: The Halliburton Retirement and Savings Plan uses an actuarially determined contribution method to fund retirement benefits, ensuring that the plan is in line with IRS regulations. This approach calculates contributions based on the plan’s liabilities and participants' service, helping maintain the financial health of the plan in 2024 by adjusting employer contributions as needed to meet legal obligations(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

In the context of the Halliburton Retirement Plan, what options do employees have for distribution upon reaching retirement age or in the event of early retirement? Elaborate on the various distribution forms available, such as lump-sum payouts and annuities, and how these options are designed to support employeesâ€™ financial needs after retirement.

Distribution Options: Halliburton employees have various distribution options upon reaching retirement age, including lump-sum payouts and annuities. These options are designed to cater to diverse financial needs, with employees being able to choose between a one-time lump sum or recurring payments in the form of annuities for greater financial stability post-retirement(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

What are the implications of excluding certain employee groups (e.g., union members, non-resident aliens) from the Halliburton Retirement Plan on the workforce's overall retirement security? Assess how this could affect Halliburton's ability to attract and retain diverse talent in the company.

Exclusion of Employee Groups: The Halliburton Retirement Plan excludes union members, non-resident aliens, and leased contractors from participation, which can impact the overall retirement security of these groups. This exclusion might limit Halliburton's ability to attract a more diverse workforce, as retirement benefits are a key factor in talent retention(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

How can Halliburton employees access their retirement plan benefits, and what steps do they need to take to initiate a distribution request? Provide a detailed explanation of the distribution request process as outlined in the Halliburton Retirement Plan documentation.

Accessing Retirement Benefits: To access their retirement benefits, Halliburton employees must contact the Halliburton Benefits Center at the provided phone number. The distribution request process involves completing specific forms and complying with eligibility requirements to initiate benefit disbursement(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

Considering changes in the economy and retirement landscape, how does Halliburton's approach to retirement benefits compare to industry standards? Analyze the strengths and weaknesses of Halliburton's retirement offerings relative to competitors in the same market segment.

Industry Comparison: Halliburton's retirement offerings, including a defined benefit plan, are competitive but limited due to the freezing of new participants after 1996. This places the company slightly behind competitors that offer more flexible or modern retirement plans, although its pension benefits remain a strong feature for eligible long-term employees(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

How is the financial health of the Halliburton Retirement Plan monitored, and what measures are in place to ensure that the plan remains funded adequately to meet the obligations to its participants? Delve into the regulatory requirements that Halliburton must adhere to, including any recent updates to the IRS regulations in 2024.

Monitoring Financial Health: Halliburton monitors the financial health of its retirement plan through regular actuarial reviews to ensure that it remains adequately funded. The company adheres to IRS regulations and uses plan assets to cover necessary expenses, ensuring the plan can meet obligations to participants(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

What role do Halliburton employees play in influencing the future of the retirement plan? Discuss any avenues available for employees to provide feedback or suggestions regarding changes to the retirement plan offerings or structure.

Employee Influence: While Halliburton employees may not directly influence retirement plan policy changes, they can provide feedback through the Benefits Center. However, changes to frozen plans are rare, so employee input may have limited impact on restructuring or reopening the plan(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

What specific resources does Halliburton offer to employees for learning about and planning their retirement, and how can they be leveraged effectively? Discuss the importance of these resources in helping employees make informed decisions about their retirement.

Retirement Resources: Halliburton offers resources such as retirement planning tools and access to benefits counselors to help employees make informed decisions about their retirement. These resources are crucial in helping employees understand their retirement options and optimize their benefits(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

How can employees at Halliburton contact the company to learn more about the retirement plan and its provisions? What specific contact methods or resources are available for employees seeking further information or assistance regarding their retirement benefits?

Contacting Halliburton: Employees seeking more information about their retirement benefits can contact the Halliburton Benefits Center directly. This service provides guidance on plan details, distribution options, and general retirement inquiries, ensuring employees have access to the assistance they need(Halliburton_2_27_2015_H…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Pension Plan Information: Name of Pension Plan: Halliburton Retirement Plan Years of Service and Age Qualification: Halliburton typically requires a minimum number of years of service and/or a specific age for eligibility in its pension plan. This information is usually detailed in the pension plan documents or summary plan descriptions. Pension Formula: The formula used to calculate the pension benefits under the Halliburton Retirement Plan will be outlined in the plan documents. 401(k) Plan Information: Name of 401(k) Plan: Halliburton 401(k) Plan Eligibility: Information on who qualifies for the Halliburton 401(k) Plan, including any age or service requirements. Details on Contribution Matching: How Halliburton matches contributions to the 401(k) Plan, if applicable.

Restructuring and Layoffs: Halliburton has undergone significant restructuring in recent months as part of its strategy to streamline operations and reduce costs. The company announced in early 2024 that it would lay off approximately 2,000 employees globally. This move is intended to improve operational efficiency and adapt to fluctuating demand in the oil and gas sector. Given the current economic climate and ongoing volatility in energy markets, this restructuring is crucial for Halliburton to remain competitive and financially stable.

Stock Options: Halliburton provides stock options to its employees as part of its compensation package. These options are typically offered to executives and high-level employees. The options allow employees to purchase Halliburton shares at a set price, usually lower than the market price, after a specified vesting period. Restricted Stock Units (RSUs): Halliburton grants RSUs as a form of long-term incentive compensation. These RSUs are awarded to employees with certain performance criteria and vesting schedules. The value of RSUs is tied to Halliburton’s stock performance and converts to actual shares upon vesting.

Health Benefits Overview: Halliburton offers a range of health benefits including medical, dental, and vision coverage. They also provide wellness programs and employee assistance programs. Healthcare-Related Terms: PPO (Preferred Provider Organization), HSA (Health Savings Account), FSA (Flexible Spending Account), EAP (Employee Assistance Program).