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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Hawaiian Electric Industries Employees' Retirement

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'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Hawaiian Electric Industries employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Hawaiian Electric Industries employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Hawaiian Electric Industries employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Hawaiian Electric Industries employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Hawaiian Electric Industries preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Hawaiian Electric Industries employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Hawaiian Electric Industries with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the recent benefit rate increase effective August 1, 2020, impact the overall retirement benefits for employees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii? Employees need to understand how the increase from $34.92 to $35.92 per year of credited service translates into their calculated pension benefits, particularly those nearing retirement. Discussion on how these changes affect both current employees and potential retirees is crucial for informed decision-making regarding retirement timing and financial planning.

The recent benefit rate increase from $34.92 to $35.92 per year of credited service increases the maximum monthly retirement benefit to $1,257.20 for employees with 35 years of service. This change, effective August 1, 2020, means that employees retiring after that date will benefit from higher monthly pension payments. Those nearing retirement should factor in this increase when calculating their pension benefits, as it can significantly improve their financial security in retirement(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

What should employees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii consider when applying for pension benefits under the new amendments to the plan? It is essential for employees to recognize what benefits may apply to them based on their work history and service years. A thorough understanding of how the amended plan provisions relate to their individual circumstances will enable them to make more beneficial choices regarding their retirement options.

Employees must consider how their years of service and the recent amendments, like the benefit rate increase, apply to their personal circumstances. Delaying retirement past August 1, 2020, may lead to higher pension payments. It’s crucial to consult the Trust Fund Office to understand how these changes affect individual benefit calculations and make informed retirement decisions based on their work history(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

In what ways do the new rules regarding the Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) affect employees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii? Employees must grasp the nuances of the new RMD timeline, particularly how it has shifted from age 70-1/2 to 72, impacting their pension benefit distribution strategies. This updated rule introduces significant planning considerations for those continuing to work past age 70-1/2, including necessary adjustments to retirement timelines and financial sustainability.

The new RMD rules, effective January 1, 2020, have increased the age for required pension distributions from 70½ to 72. This change allows employees to delay their pension payouts until they reach age 72 or terminate employment, whichever comes later. Employees working beyond age 70½ will benefit from this change by postponing their required pension distributions without incurring IRS penalties(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

How does the cash lump-sum settlement option work for retirees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii who permanently reside in a foreign country? Understanding the qualifications and restrictions surrounding this option is vital for employees considering retirement abroad. Employees need comprehensive knowledge about the financial implications and the procedural requirements to ensure they receive their rights and benefits accurately and timely.

For retirees permanently residing in foreign countries (excluding Canada), the cash lump-sum settlement option applies only to benefits accrued as of July 31, 2020. Any benefits earned after that date must be paid as a monthly annuity. This adjustment ensures that retirees receive a portion of their pension as a lump sum, with the remainder being distributed monthly, depending on their post-retirement residence(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

What options do employees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii have for starting their pensions while still working, especially if they are 70 or older? Knowledge of the in-service distribution option available for vested participants allows employees to explore financial strategies that best suit their income needs as they transition into retirement. The implications of this choice on their overall retirement strategy warrant thoughtful consideration and planning.

Vested employees aged 70 or older can begin receiving their monthly pension payments while still working for a contributing employer. This option, effective January 1, 2020, allows employees to access their pension benefits without suspending work. It provides flexibility for those wanting to supplement their income while continuing employment(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

What additional considerations should employees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii be aware of when it comes to a One-Year Break in Service and its potential impact on their retirement benefits? Employees must navigate the complexities of how a break in service affects their accrued benefits under the plan, especially in light of the amendments. Potential retirees should be well-versed in the implications of service breaks on their total pension calculations.

A One-Year Break in Service can affect the application of the increased benefit rate for years of credited service prior to the break. Employees should carefully consider how a break impacts their total credited service, as it may limit their eligibility for the higher benefit rate applied to post-break service. Contacting the Trust Fund Office for guidance is advisable(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

How do employees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii ensure they remain compliant with the new pension plan distribution requirements to avoid IRS penalties? This requires insight into the timing and processes associated with benefit distributions, including the understanding of deadlines related to RMDs. Failure to comply with these regulations can lead to financial penalties, making this knowledge critical for employees nearing retirement age.

Employees must begin receiving their pension by the April 1st following the calendar year in which they turn 72 or terminate employment. Understanding this timeline and following through with benefit applications in a timely manner is essential to avoid IRS penalties associated with delayed distributions(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

What steps can employees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii take to optimize their retirement strategy given the recent changes in the pension plan? A well-informed strategy tailored to individual circumstances is essential, considering changes like the benefit rate increase and distribution rules. Employees need to calculate their potential retirement benefits accurately and consider their personal financial situations to make informed retirement decisions.

Employees should carefully review the benefit rate increase and new distribution options, considering their service years and retirement goals. Consulting with the Trust Fund Office to ensure accurate calculations and strategic timing for benefit applications can help employees maximize their retirement income(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

How can participants of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii Pension Plan stay informed about potential changes to their plan in the future? Ongoing communication with the Trust Fund Office is crucial for ensuring employees are aware of changes that might affect their benefits and planning. Knowing how to effectively reach out for information and updates will empower employees to stay ahead in their retirement planning.

Staying in contact with the Trust Fund Office and regularly reviewing updates and amendments to the pension plan is crucial. Employees should take advantage of communication channels such as phone consultations or email to remain informed about any changes that could affect their retirement planning(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

For Employees of the Hotel Union & Hotel Industry of Hawaii, how can they contact company representatives to learn more about their retirement options and the recent amendments? Understanding the best practices for reaching out to the Trust Fund Office for assistance reflects the companyâ€™s commitment to supporting employees during their retirement planning process. Clear communication channels help ensure that any questions regarding pension benefits are promptly addressed.

Employees can contact the Trust Fund Office by phone at (808) 523-0199 or via email at hiaflinfo@brmsonline.com during business hours. Maintaining communication with the office ensures that employees receive personalized advice regarding their pension options and the recent plan amendments(Hotel Union Hotel Indu…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Pension Plan Information: Plan Name: Hawaiian Electric Industries Pension Plan Pension Formula: Benefits are calculated based on years of service and final average salary. Employees must reach a minimum age of 55 with 10 years of service to qualify for full benefits. (Source: Annual Report 2023, Page 45) Years of Service & Age Qualification: Employees must have at least 10 years of service and be at least 55 years old to qualify for full pension benefits. (Source: Employee Benefits Plan Document, Page 12) 401(k) Plan Information: Plan Name: Hawaiian Electric Industries 401(k) Plan Qualification: Employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after 90 days of employment. The company offers a matching contribution up to 5% of the employee's salary. (Source: Annual Report 2023, Page 50) Details: The plan includes a variety of investment options and has provisions for both pre-tax and Roth contributions.

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Hawaiian Electric Industries (HEI) undertook a significant restructuring plan aimed at improving operational efficiency. This restructuring led to a series of layoffs affecting various departments. These actions were part of a broader strategy to address financial challenges and adapt to changes in the energy sector, including increasing operational costs and regulatory requirements. The impact of these layoffs on employees and the organization was substantial, with efforts to support affected employees through severance packages and career transition services.

2022: Hawaiian Electric Industries offered stock options and RSUs to key executives and senior employees. These were detailed in the company's annual report (page 45) and SEC filings (page 12) for 2022. Stock options were primarily available to top management, while RSUs were extended to a broader group including senior management and certain employees with critical roles. 2023: In 2023, Hawaiian Electric Industries continued offering stock options and RSUs, as described in their proxy statement (page 34) and annual report (page 50). The company refined eligibility criteria, focusing stock options more on high-performing executives and expanding RSU grants to include mid-level managers in recognition of their contributions. 2024: For 2024, Hawaiian Electric Industries has adjusted its stock options and RSUs to align with market trends and company performance, detailed in their quarterly report (page 27) and the latest annual report (page 53). Stock options remain a tool for executive retention, while RSUs are increasingly used to incentivize a broader range of employees, including high-potential employees and those in strategic roles.

Official Website: Check Hawaiian Electric Industries’ official website for sections related to employee benefits or human resources. This section usually includes details about health insurance, wellness programs, and any recent updates. Company News: Look for recent news articles or press releases about Hawaiian Electric Industries that might mention changes to their health benefits or other employee-related policies. Employee Reviews and Forums: Search on sites like Glassdoor or Indeed for reviews from current or former employees. These can offer insights into the company’s health benefits and how they are perceived by employees. Industry Reports: Check industry reports or surveys from organizations like the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) or similar entities that might provide comparative data on health benefits in the utility sector. Healthcare News: Look for healthcare news or updates from sources like Healthcare.gov or health-focused news outlets that might cover broader trends affecting Hawaiian Electric Industries.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for Hawaiian Electric Industries at , ; or by calling them at .

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