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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Hertz Global Holdings Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider Information for Hertz Global Holdings Hertz Global Holdings typically utilizes the services of UnitedHealthcare. This relationship provides its employees with access to a range of healthcare options, including comprehensive medical coverage and health savings accounts to help manage rising healthcare costs. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As we approach 2026, employees of Hertz Global Holdings should prepare for significant healthcare cost increases, driven primarily by sharply rising premiums in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Data indicates that some states may see premium hikes exceeding 60%, exacerbated by factors such as inflated medical costs and the potential expiration of federal premium subsidies. With more than 92% of ACA policyholders facing potential out-of-pocket increases of over 75%, these economic pressures could strain budgets and access to healthcare coverage for many Hertz employees in the upcoming year. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Hertz Global Holdings employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Hertz Global Holdings employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Hertz Global Holdings employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Hertz Global Holdings employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Hertz Global Holdings preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Hertz Global Holdings employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Hertz Global Holdings with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does The Hertz Corporation's pension plan ensure that employees are fairly compensated for their years of service, and what specific criteria does The Hertz Corporation use to determine eligibility for benefits under the Account Balance Defined Benefit Pension Plan?

Fair Compensation for Years of Service: The Hertz Corporation's pension plan ensures employees are fairly compensated for their years of service by granting Compensation Credits as a percentage of eligible pay. Eligibility for benefits starts once employees have at least 1,000 Hours of Service in a 12-month period, ensuring that benefits are proportional to service time. Benefits become vested after three years of service, securing an employee’s accumulated benefits.

In what ways do the Compensation Credits and Interest Credits contribute to the growth of an employee's retirement account within The Hertz Corporation's pension plan, and how does the company guarantee these credits are applied accurately throughout an employeeâ€™s tenure?

Growth of Retirement Account: Within The Hertz Corporation's pension plan, Compensation Credits and Interest Credits contribute to the growth of an employee's retirement account. Compensation Credits are calculated as a percentage of the employee’s eligible pay, and Interest Credits grow the account balance annually based on a preset rate, ensuring a systematic increase in the retirement funds over an employee's tenure.

What are the implications of the freeze date on participation in The Hertz Corporation's pension plan, and how might this affect current employees who are considering their retirement options within the next few years?

Implications of Freeze Date: The freeze date impacts current employees by discontinuing the accrual of new Compensation Credits. Employees enrolled in the plan before the freeze date retain their accrued benefits, but no new benefits will be added post-freeze. This could influence current employees' decisions on retirement timing and financial planning.

How does The Hertz Corporation handle claims for pension benefits, and what processes are in place for employees to appeal denied claims according to the guidelines set out in the Account Balance Defined Benefit Pension Plan?

Claims for Pension Benefits: The Hertz Corporation handles claims for pension benefits through a detailed procedure where employees can file a claim with the Committee. If denied, the employee can appeal the decision. This process ensures that employees have a structured avenue for resolving disputes regarding their pension benefits.

Under what circumstances can an employee of The Hertz Corporation be considered fully vested, and how does vesting impact an employee's future retirement benefits?

Vesting and Impact on Retirement Benefits: Employees of The Hertz Corporation are considered fully vested in their pension benefits after three years of service, which secures their right to pension benefits accrued till that point. Vesting ensures that upon leaving the company, employees are entitled to their accumulated benefits, directly impacting their financial stability in retirement.

How do The Hertz Corporation's pension benefits compare to other companies in the industry, especially in terms of contribution percentages and payment options available upon retirement?

Comparison with Industry Standards: The pension benefits at The Hertz Corporation, which include both Compensation and Interest Credits, are competitive within the industry, particularly because the company covers the full cost of the plan. The option to receive benefits as a lump sum or an annuity upon retirement provides flexibility compared to other industry plans.

Can you explain the process and the timeline involved for receiving pension benefits after retirement from The Hertz Corporation, including any choices that the retiree must make regarding payout methods?

Receiving Pension Benefits Post-Retirement: The timeline and process for receiving pension benefits after retirement involve choosing a payout method (lump sum or annuity) and filing a claim. Benefits can start as early as age 55 for early retirement, or at the normal retirement age of 65, with the account continuing to accrue Interest Credits until the benefits commence.

What resources does The Hertz Corporation provide to employees looking to understand their rights and benefits under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), and how can this information assist employees in making informed retirement decisions?

Resources on ERISA Rights: The Hertz Corporation provides resources to help employees understand their rights under ERISA through its pension plan website and support center. This information helps employees make informed decisions about their retirement planning by clarifying their rights and benefits under the plan.

What procedures should an employee at The Hertz Corporation follow to update their personal information or beneficiary designations in their pension account, and why is it crucial to keep this information up to date?

Updating Personal Information: Employees at The Hertz Corporation are encouraged to update their personal and beneficiary information via the Hertz Pension Center website. Keeping information current is crucial for ensuring that all communications and benefits are correctly handled, especially for claims and beneficiary designations.

If employees of The Hertz Corporation have questions or require further information regarding the pension plan, what steps should they take to contact the company, and what information will they need to facilitate their inquiry?

Contacting for Further Information: For further inquiries about the pension plan, employees should contact the Hertz Pension Center. This center provides access to plan details and assistance for any additional information required by employees, ensuring transparency and accessibility in managing their retirement benefits.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Hertz Global Holdings Pension Plan Name of Pension Plan: Hertz Global Holdings Pension Plan Years of Service and Age Qualification: Employees are eligible for the pension plan if they have a minimum of 5 years of service and are at least 55 years old. Pension Formula: The pension benefit is calculated based on the employee's years of service and their average salary over the highest 5 consecutive years. Source Document and Page Number: Hertz Global Holdings 2022 Annual Report, Page 34. Hertz Global Holdings 401(k) Plan Name of 401(k) Plan: Hertz Global Holdings 401(k) Plan Eligibility: Employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan immediately upon hire. Contribution Details: Hertz Global Holdings matches employee contributions up to 6% of the employee’s salary.

Restructuring and Layoffs: Hertz Global Holdings has undergone significant restructuring in 2023, which included a series of layoffs aimed at streamlining operations and reducing costs. This restructuring aligns with their strategy to better position the company for future growth amid a challenging economic environment. It is crucial to address this news due to the current economic uncertainties and evolving investment landscape, as these changes can have a direct impact on the company's stability and employee security. Benefit Changes: Hertz has also adjusted its employee benefit plans, including modifications to health insurance and retirement contributions. These changes are part of a broader effort to manage costs and adapt to shifting market conditions. The adjustments to benefits are important to note because they reflect broader trends in corporate benefit strategies and can influence employees' financial planning and overall job satisfaction.

Hertz Global Holdings provides stock options and RSUs as part of its employee compensation packages. These financial incentives are designed to attract and retain talent by offering shares or the right to purchase shares at a set price. Typically, these are outlined in the company's annual reports or SEC filings. Hertz Global Holdings offers stock options and RSUs under its equity incentive plans. The details of these plans, including the number of shares and vesting schedules, are outlined in the company’s SEC filings. Employees in specific roles or levels may qualify for these benefits. Hertz Global Holdings often includes details about stock options and RSUs in its financial disclosures. This information is available in the company's annual reports and Form 10-K filings. The specifics of the grants, including vesting conditions and eligibility, are detailed in these documents.

Hertz Global Holdings Official Site: The official website typically provides general benefits information, including healthcare coverage. Key benefits include medical, dental, and vision insurance options. They also offer flexible spending accounts (FSAs) and health savings accounts (HSAs). Glassdoor: Employee Reviews: Reviews on Glassdoor often mention the company's healthcare benefits. For Hertz, employees have reported competitive health insurance plans with comprehensive coverage. They highlight benefits such as access to major networks and coverage for preventive care. Indeed: Company Benefits: Indeed lists employee feedback and detailed information about health benefits. Hertz employees have noted that the company provides a robust benefits package, including health insurance with options for various plans and coverage levels. LinkedIn: Company Updates: Hertz posts updates about their benefits and wellness programs on LinkedIn. Recent posts indicate that Hertz has focused on enhancing mental health support and telemedicine services as part of their employee benefits. Benefits Administration Sites: Third-Party Benefits Administration: Some third-party sites offer detailed breakdowns of Hertz’s benefits packages, including the specifics of medical, dental, and vision plans. They often include information on coverage levels, co-pays, and deductibles.