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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Jabil Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Jabil Jabil employs a diverse range of healthcare providers to support its workforce, focusing on comprehensive health plans that address various medical needs. These providers often include a mix of major national insurance carriers such as UnitedHealthcare, Aetna, and Cigna, which offer extensive networks and accessible care options for employees. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases for Jabil in 2026 As healthcare costs are projected to surge in 2026, Jabil will likely be affected by the anticipated sharp increases in Affordable Care Act (ACA) premiums and medical expenses. With reports indicating that some states may encounter premium hikes exceeding 60%, plus the potential loss of federal subsidies, employees could see out-of-pocket premiums rise significantly-potentially by 75% or more. Coupled with ongoing inflation in medical costs and increasing demand for care, Jabil must strategize to mitigate these financial impacts on employee healthcare benefits in the coming year. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Jabil employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Jabil employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Jabil employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Jabil employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Jabil preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Jabil employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Jabil with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does Jabil Circuit ensure the long-term sustainability of its Pension Scheme, and what role do the trustees play in this? In what ways does the investment strategy align with Jabil Circuit's overall business goals and the financial security of its employees?

Jabil Circuit Sustainability of Pension Scheme: Jabil Circuit ensures the long-term sustainability of its pension scheme by setting clear investment objectives that align with the interests of its members and beneficiaries. The trustees, operating under Jabil Pension Trustees Limited (JPT), focus on meeting the scheme's obligations and achieving asset returns above gilts over the long term, while balancing risk control and return generation. The investment strategy is designed to be consistent with return assumptions used by the scheme actuary, considering Jabil's interests in employer contribution payments.

What are the primary objectives of the investment policy for the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme, and how do these objectives impact the decision-making process regarding asset allocation and risk management? Additionally, how do Jabil Circuitâ€™s obligations to its beneficiaries shape these objectives?

Investment Policy Objectives: The primary objectives of Jabil Circuit's pension scheme investment policy are to meet the scheme's obligations to beneficiaries and to achieve long-term asset returns above gilts. These objectives influence decision-making in asset allocation and risk management by ensuring a balance between risk control and return generation. Jabil Circuit's obligations to beneficiaries shape these objectives by prioritizing financial security and the interests of the members.

Can you elaborate on the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) policies of Jabil Circuit and how these policies influence investment decisions made by the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme? In what ways does Jabil Circuit engage with its investment managers to uphold these ESG principles?

ESG Policies Influence: Jabil Circuit incorporates Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) policies into its investment decisions through a structured policy that includes climate change considerations. This policy guides the trustee's engagement with investment managers, ensuring ESG factors are considered in the investment process. Regular reviews and training provided by Mercer help reinforce these principles and ensure they are integrated into the pension scheme's investment strategy.

How do climate change considerations factor into Jabil Circuit's investment approach, particularly in the context of the Pension Scheme? What measures does Jabil Circuit take to assess and manage climate-related risks associated with its investment portfolio?

Climate Change Considerations: Climate change is a significant factor in Jabil Circuit's investment approach, particularly for the pension scheme. The trustees undertake climate scenario modeling and stress testing annually, aligning the investment portfolio with climate-related financial disclosure recommendations and the Paris Agreement objectives. This approach helps manage climate-related risks and ensures the portfolio is positioned to handle various climate scenarios.

What strategies does Jabil Circuit employ to communicate and engage with employees regarding their pension benefits and retirement options? How can employees participate in discussions about changes or updates to the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme?

Employee Communication and Engagement: Jabil Circuit employs strategies to actively engage with employees regarding their pension benefits and retirement options. Regular reporting and updates are provided, and employees have opportunities to participate in discussions about changes to the pension scheme. This open communication ensures employees are well-informed and can make knowledgeable decisions about their retirement planning.

In the context of the current IRS limits for 2024, how does Jabil Circuit assist employees in understanding their retirement savings options, particularly in relation to contributions to the Pension Scheme? What resources are available for employees to navigate these changes?

Understanding Retirement Savings Options: In light of the current IRS limits for 2024, Jabil Circuit assists employees by providing resources and guidance on retirement savings options, particularly concerning contributions to the pension scheme. Educational materials and support systems are in place to help employees understand how these changes affect their retirement planning and contributions.

How does the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme address the issue of responsible investing, and what are the specific exclusions that have been put in place? How does Jabil Circuit balance ethical investment practices with the need for financial returns?

Responsible Investing: Jabil Circuit addresses responsible investing through clear exclusions and ethical investment practices within its pension scheme. The scheme excludes investments in controversial and civilian weapons and tobacco from its active fixed income funds. This approach balances ethical considerations with the need for financial returns, adhering to broader corporate responsibility standards.

What is the frequency and nature of the reporting provided to Jabil Circuit regarding the performance of the Pension Scheme investments? How does this reporting influence the strategic decisions made by the trustees in managing the scheme?

Investment Performance Reporting: The frequency and nature of reporting on the pension scheme's investment performance involve regular updates from Mercer, the investment consultant. These reports influence the trustees' strategic decisions by providing insights into asset performance, risk management, and compliance with investment objectives. This systematic reporting ensures that the trustees are well-informed to manage the scheme effectively.

How has the trustee board of the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme evolved over time, and what qualifications or experiences do board members bring to their roles? In what ways do these factors contribute to effective oversight of the Pension Scheme?

Evolution and Qualifications of Trustee Board: The trustee board of the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme has evolved to include members with specific qualifications and experiences that contribute to effective oversight. Regular training sessions and strategic reviews help trustees stay informed and capable of managing complex investment decisions, ensuring the pension scheme is managed with expertise and due diligence.

How can employees contact Jabil Circuit to learn more about their specific benefits under the Pension Scheme and to seek guidance during the retirement process? What channels are available for employees to access this information effectively?

Contacting Jabil Circuit for Pension Benefits: Employees seeking information about their benefits under the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme can contact the human resources department or designated pension scheme administrators. Multiple channels, including direct consultations, informational seminars, and online resources, are available to ensure employees have effective access to guidance throughout their retirement process.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Name of Plan: Jabil Pension Plan Years of Service Qualification: 5 years of service (as per the document, page 14) Age Qualification: Age 55 (document, page 14) Pension Formula: Calculated based on years of service and average salary over the final 5 years (document, page 15) Name of Plan: Jabil 401(k) Plan Eligibility: All full-time employees who have completed 30 days of service (document, page 22) Employer Match: Jabil matches up to 4% of employee contributions (

Restructuring and Layoffs: In 2023, Jabil announced significant restructuring plans aimed at optimizing their global operations. This included a reduction in workforce by approximately 5% in certain divisions to streamline operations and improve efficiency. This move is a response to shifting market demands and an effort to remain competitive in the evolving economic landscape. It's crucial to monitor these changes due to their potential impact on employee job security and company performance amid the current economic and investment climate.

Jabil offers stock options with a standard vesting period of four years. Stock options are granted to executives and key employees. Jabil’s RSUs RSUs at Jabil typically vest over three to four years and are performance-based. These are available to senior management and selected key employees.

Healthcare Benefits: Jabil typically offers a range of healthcare benefits including medical, dental, and vision insurance. Coverage options may include various plan tiers, such as HMO, PPO, or high-deductible health plans (HDHPs). Wellness Programs: The company often provides wellness programs which can include fitness reimbursements, mental health support, and employee assistance programs (EAPs). Acronyms and Terms: Common acronyms such as HMO (Health Maintenance Organization), PPO (Preferred Provider Organization), EAP (Employee Assistance Program), and HDHP (High-Deductible Health Plan) are used in their benefits communication.