New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and J.B. Hunt Transport Services Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for J.B. Hunt Transport Services J.B. Hunt Transport Services utilizes multiple healthcare providers for its employee benefits, with the specifics often varying by the region and the type of coverage chosen. The company typically offers access to a range of insurers, aligning with industry standards for providing health care to its employees. Healthcare Cost Increases Projection for 2026 As J.B. Hunt Transport Services prepares for 2026, employees may face significant healthcare cost increases due to a convergence of factors. Premiums for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace are projected to rise sharply, with some states reporting hikes exceeding 60% as a result of both the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies and elevated medical costs. Additionally, many employers, including J.B. Hunt, are expected to shift more healthcare expenses onto employees, further straining household finances. This backdrop of rising costs highlights the importance for employees to proactively reassess their healthcare plans and budgeting strategies to mitigate the financial impact. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for J.B. Hunt Transport Services employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, J.B. Hunt Transport Services employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on J.B. Hunt Transport Services employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly J.B. Hunt Transport Services employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at J.B. Hunt Transport Services preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially J.B. Hunt Transport Services employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at J.B. Hunt Transport Services with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What type of retirement savings plan does J.B. Hunt Transport Services offer to its employees?

J.B. Hunt Transport Services offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to its employees.

Is there a company match for contributions made to the 401(k) plan at J.B. Hunt Transport Services?

Yes, J.B. Hunt Transport Services provides a company match for employee contributions to the 401(k) plan, subject to certain limits.

How can employees at J.B. Hunt Transport Services enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees at J.B. Hunt Transport Services can enroll in the 401(k) plan through the company’s HR portal or by contacting the HR department for assistance.

What is the eligibility requirement for employees to participate in the 401(k) plan at J.B. Hunt Transport Services?

Employees at J.B. Hunt Transport Services typically need to be at least 21 years old and have completed a specified period of service to be eligible for the 401(k) plan.

How often can employees change their contribution rate to the 401(k) plan at J.B. Hunt Transport Services?

Employees at J.B. Hunt Transport Services can change their contribution rate to the 401(k) plan at any time, subject to plan rules.

What investment options are available in the 401(k) plan at J.B. Hunt Transport Services?

J.B. Hunt Transport Services offers a variety of investment options in its 401(k) plan, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and other investment vehicles.

Can employees take loans against their 401(k) balance at J.B. Hunt Transport Services?

Yes, J.B. Hunt Transport Services allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) balance, subject to the plan's terms and conditions.

What happens to an employee's 401(k) balance if they leave J.B. Hunt Transport Services?

If an employee leaves J.B. Hunt Transport Services, they can choose to roll over their 401(k) balance to another retirement account, cash out, or leave the funds in the J.B. Hunt plan if permitted.

Does J.B. Hunt Transport Services offer any financial education resources for employees regarding their 401(k)?

Yes, J.B. Hunt Transport Services provides financial education resources and tools to help employees understand and manage their 401(k) plans effectively.

Are there any fees associated with the 401(k) plan at J.B. Hunt Transport Services?

Yes, there may be administrative fees and investment-related fees associated with the 401(k) plan at J.B. Hunt Transport Services, which are disclosed in the plan documents.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Name of Pension Plan: J.B. Hunt Transport Services does not offer a traditional defined benefit pension plan. Instead, the company primarily provides a 401(k) retirement savings plan. Eligibility Criteria: J.B. Hunt Transport Services offers a 401(k) plan to eligible employees. The eligibility for the 401(k) plan typically depends on the employee's length of service and other criteria set by the company. Pension Formula: Since J.B. Hunt does not have a defined benefit pension plan, there is no pension formula applicable. Name of 401(k) Plan: The 401(k) plan offered by J.B. Hunt Transport Services is known as the "J.B. Hunt 401(k) Plan." Eligibility Criteria: Employees typically become eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a specific waiting period, which is usually outlined in the company's employee benefits documentation.

Restructuring and Layoffs: J.B. Hunt announced a restructuring plan in early 2024 aimed at improving operational efficiency. This plan included reducing its workforce by approximately 5% in response to changing market conditions and the need for operational optimization. The company indicated that the layoffs were part of a broader strategy to streamline operations and enhance profitability. This news is particularly important to address in the current economic environment as companies navigate uncertainties and seek to adapt to market changes. Understanding these adjustments can provide insights into how businesses are managing financial pressures and restructuring to remain competitive.

2022: J.B. Hunt offered stock options and RSUs to employees as part of their compensation package. Stock options were granted primarily to executives and senior management, while RSUs were available to a broader group including mid-level managers. 2023: The company continued offering RSUs to a broader group of employees, including those in mid-level positions and above. Stock options were less commonly granted, with a focus on key executive positions. 2024: J.B. Hunt's RSU program was expanded to include more employees, reflecting a trend towards broader equity compensation. Stock options remained targeted at senior executives and key personnel.

Healthcare Benefits Page: This section often includes comprehensive details about employee benefits, including health insurance options, wellness programs, and any recent updates. Company Blog/News Section: Recent announcements or changes related to employee benefits may be highlighted here