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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Jones Lang LaSalle Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider Information for Jones Lang LaSalle Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) offers a comprehensive range of healthcare real estate services. The company specializes in managing, optimizing, and developing healthcare facilities, leveraging its deep expertise to support healthcare providers in enhancing operational efficiency and improving patient care environments. Through its Healthcare Center of Excellence, JLL provides clients with tailored real estate solutions to navigate the complexities of the healthcare landscape effectively. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As we head into 2026, healthcare costs are projected to see significant increases due to a perfect storm of factors. Record hikes in health insurance premiums for ACA marketplace plans, sometimes exceeding 60% in various states, combined with the likely expiration of enhanced federal subsidies, could result in over 75% more out-of-pocket premiums for the majority of enrollees. Coupled with persistent medical cost inflation driven by high hospital and drug prices, consumers may find healthcare increasingly unaffordable unless proactive steps are taken now. The evolving regulatory environment will further complicate the landscape, emphasizing the necessity for strategic decisions in coverage and care. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Jones Lang LaSalle employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Jones Lang LaSalle employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Jones Lang LaSalle employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Jones Lang LaSalle employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Jones Lang LaSalle preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Jones Lang LaSalle employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Jones Lang LaSalle with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by Jones Lang LaSalle?

The 401(k) plan at Jones Lang LaSalle is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their salary on a pre-tax basis, helping them build a nest egg for retirement.

Does Jones Lang LaSalle match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, Jones Lang LaSalle offers a matching contribution to the 401(k) plan, which helps employees maximize their retirement savings.

How can employees at Jones Lang LaSalle enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees can enroll in the 401(k) plan at Jones Lang LaSalle by accessing the benefits portal or contacting the HR department for assistance.

What types of investment options are available in the Jones Lang LaSalle 401(k) plan?

The Jones Lang LaSalle 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and company stock.

When can employees at Jones Lang LaSalle start contributing to their 401(k) plan?

Employees at Jones Lang LaSalle can typically start contributing to their 401(k) plan after completing their initial eligibility period, which is outlined in the employee handbook.

Is there a vesting schedule for the employer match in the Jones Lang LaSalle 401(k) plan?

Yes, Jones Lang LaSalle has a vesting schedule for the employer match, which means employees must work for a certain period to fully own the matched contributions.

Can employees take loans against their 401(k) savings at Jones Lang LaSalle?

Yes, employees can take loans against their 401(k) savings at Jones Lang LaSalle, subject to specific terms and conditions outlined in the plan documents.

What happens to the 401(k) plan if an employee leaves Jones Lang LaSalle?

If an employee leaves Jones Lang LaSalle, they have several options for their 401(k) plan, including rolling it over to an IRA or a new employer's plan, or cashing it out.

How often can employees change their contribution rate to the Jones Lang LaSalle 401(k) plan?

Employees at Jones Lang LaSalle can change their contribution rate to the 401(k) plan at designated times throughout the year, as specified in the plan guidelines.

Are there any fees associated with the 401(k) plan at Jones Lang LaSalle?

Yes, there may be fees associated with the 401(k) plan at Jones Lang LaSalle, which are disclosed in the plan documents and can vary based on investment choices.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Plan Name: Jones Lang LaSalle Employee Pension Plan Years of Service and Age Qualification: Employees typically need to complete a minimum number of years of service to qualify for the pension plan. The specific requirements can vary based on the plan’s terms. Pension Formula: The pension formula used by Jones Lang LaSalle is based on factors such as years of service, salary history, and age at retirement. The exact formula can be found in the pension plan documentation. Qualification for 401(k) Plan: Eligibility for the 401(k) plan generally includes all full-time employees who meet certain service and age requirements. 401(k) Plan Name: Jones Lang LaSalle 401(k) Plan

Layoffs and Restructuring: In early 2023, Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) announced a significant restructuring plan, including the reduction of around 5% of its global workforce. This move was attributed to the company's strategy to streamline operations and adapt to changing market conditions. The reduction affects various departments, particularly those in support functions. It’s important to follow this news given the current economic climate, as companies are reassessing their structures amid economic uncertainty and shifting investment priorities. Understanding these changes can provide insights into broader market trends and potential impacts on employee benefits and job security. Changes to Benefits and Retirement Plans: In mid-2023, JLL also updated its employee benefits, including modifications to its pension and 401(k) plans. The company reduced its matching contributions to 401(k) plans and revised its pension plan options to align with its new business strategy and cost management efforts. These changes come as part of JLL's broader efforts to optimize financial performance amid fluctuating economic conditions. Monitoring these adjustments is crucial as they reflect broader trends in corporate benefits adjustments, influenced by tax and investment factors, and can impact employee retirement planning and financial security.

Stock Options: Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) offered stock options primarily to senior executives and high-level employees in 2022. The company used stock options to align executives' interests with shareholders' interests. JLL’s stock options were generally tied to performance metrics and long-term strategic goals. RSUs: In 2022, Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) at Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) were granted to employees across various levels, including middle management and above. RSUs served as a retention tool and were often granted based on performance evaluations and tenure. JLL utilized RSUs to provide employees with ownership stakes in the company, typically vesting over a period of time.

Health Benefits Information: JLL provides a comprehensive benefits package, including medical, dental, and vision coverage. They also offer health savings accounts (HSAs) and flexible spending accounts (FSAs). Specific details for 2022-2024 can be found in the benefits section of their career page or employee handbook, though exact details may vary based on location and employment status. Acronyms and Terms: HSAs (Health Savings Accounts), FSAs (Flexible Spending Accounts), PPO (Preferred Provider Organization), HMO (Health Maintenance Organization).