New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Knights of Columbus Employees' Retirement

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Knights of Columbus employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Knights of Columbus employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Knights of Columbus employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Knights of Columbus employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Knights of Columbus preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Knights of Columbus employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Knights of Columbus with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the factors that determine an employee's retirement benefits under the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan, and how are these factors influenced by an employee's length of service and compensation? Understanding the nuances of these factors can help employees plan for their retirement more effectively. Additionally, how does the recent shift in tenure and wages in the industry affect the calculation of these retirement benefits for employees of the Christian Brothers organization?

Factors Determining Retirement Benefits: Under the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan (CBERP), retirement benefits are determined by a combination of years of continuous service, credited past and future service, and compensation. The benefit formulas consider W-2 earnings and past service contributions if applicable. The length of service increases the number of credited years, leading to higher benefits, while higher compensation during service periods also boosts the overall calculation(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

How does the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan define "vesting" and what are the implications for employees regarding their retirement benefits as outlined in the plan? Furthermore, what strategies can employees implement to ensure they maximize their vesting and thus, their retirement fund contributions during their tenure with the Christian Brothers organization?

Vesting: Vesting refers to an employee's right to receive retirement benefits, and under CBERP, employees become vested after 4 years and 9 months of continuous service. Employees can always receive the return of their contributions plus interest, but to maximize vesting, they should maintain continuous employment for the full vesting period(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

Can you elaborate on the "Golden Rule of 90" regarding early retirement and the criteria that must be met for employees of Christian Brothers to qualify for this benefit? How does meeting this qualification potentially affect an employee's retirement income stream and financial planning going forward?

Golden Rule of 90: The "Golden Rule of 90" allows employees to retire early without a reduction in benefits if their age and years of service sum to 90, provided they are at least 55 years old. Meeting this qualification offers employees a full retirement benefit without the reduction typically associated with early retirement(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

What steps should Christian Brothers employees take if they become temporarily disabled and wish to initiate their retirement benefits? Additionally, what provisions does the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan offer to ensure that the disability status does not adversely impact their overall retirement benefits?

Temporary Disability and Retirement Benefits: Employees who become temporarily disabled may initiate retirement benefits if they meet Social Security’s disability requirements. If qualified before July 1, 2018, employees continue to accrue benefits until normal retirement without employer contributions. Starting benefits early due to disability results in a cessation of future accruals(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

In the context of re-employment after retirement, what specific conditions must Christian Brothers employees be aware of under the retirement plan regarding their eligibility for benefits? Furthermore, how can returning to work impact their benefits and what should they consider when making this decision?

Re-employment After Retirement: Employees who return to work for a participating employer after retirement must be cautious, as working more than the required hours will suspend their retirement benefits. This could reduce their income stream and interrupt the collection of benefits(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

What methods does the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan outline for employees to designate beneficiaries for their retirement benefits, and how do those designations change upon events like marriage or divorce? Understanding these provisions is crucial for employees to ensure their final wishes regarding benefits are honored.

Beneficiary Designations: CBERP allows employees to designate beneficiaries for their retirement benefits. These designations can be updated after major life events such as marriage or divorce. Employees should ensure that their designations reflect current relationships to ensure that their wishes are honored(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

How can employees of Christian Brothers effectively contact the benefits department for further clarification on their retirement benefits? What information should they prepare to facilitate a productive conversation regarding the specifics of their retirement plan?

Contacting the Benefits Department: Christian Brothers employees can contact the Benefits Department at 800-807-0700 or via email at rpscustomerservice@cbservices.org. Employees should prepare personal and employment details, along with specific questions about their plan, to facilitate a productive conversation(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

What are the available forms of benefit distribution upon retirement for employees in the Christian Brothers organization, and how does the choice between these options affect overall retirement security? Employees must weigh their options carefully to ensure they select a distribution method aligned with their financial needs.

Benefit Distribution Forms: CBERP offers several forms of benefit distribution, including life-only options and joint and survivor annuities. The choice between these options significantly affects retirement security. For example, choosing a joint and survivor annuity reduces the primary benefit but provides ongoing income for a spouse(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

How does the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan address potential changes to the plan and the rights of employees in such instances? Understanding the procedures in place for plan amendments is vital for employees to stay informed about their benefits and rights.

Plan Amendments: CBERP includes provisions for amending the plan. Employees' rights to accrued benefits are protected, meaning that any modifications will not affect benefits that have already been earned. Understanding these protections can help employees stay informed about changes(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).

Can you explain the relationship between Social Security benefits and the retirement benefits provided through the Christian Brothers Employee Retirement Plan? Specifically, how will employeesâ€™ Social Security benefits interact with their retirement funds, and what should they consider when planning for a holistic retirement income strategy?

Interaction with Social Security: CBERP retirement benefits do not reduce or integrate with Social Security benefits. Employees need to consider both sources of income separately when planning their overall retirement strategy(Christian_Brothers_Empl…).