Healthcare Provider Update: Leidos Holdings, Inc. does not directly provide its own healthcare services; instead, it offers health insurance benefits to its employees through various third-party insurance providers. The specifics of these healthcare providers may change based on company contracts and employee preferences during open enrollment periods. Looking ahead to 2026, healthcare costs are anticipated to rise significantly, driven by a combination of factors impacting the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Insurers are requesting steep premium increases-some exceeding 60% in certain states-partly due to higher medical costs and the potential loss of enhanced federal premium subsidies. This could lead to out-of-pocket premium increases of over 75% for a large number of enrollees, primarily affecting middle-income Americans who may struggle to maintain adequate coverage. As the insurance landscape evolves, individuals and families must prepare for these financial implications and consider proactive strategies to mitigate costs. Click here to learn more
'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Leidos Holdings employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.
'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Leidos Holdings employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.
In this article, we will discuss:
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The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
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How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Leidos Holdings employees.
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Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.
The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Leidos Holdings employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.
The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets
The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. 1
For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.
It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.
The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles
John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. 2 Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.
This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.
It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Leidos Holdings preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.
Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio
Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Leidos Holdings employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.
For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.
Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.
In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.
Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes
Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Leidos Holdings with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.
To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.
As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.
Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.
Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.
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Sources:
1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.
2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.
3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.
4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.
5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.
What options does Leidos offer for employees looking to transition into retirement, and how can these options impact employees' financial planning for retirement? Employees may want to consider their defined benefit pension plans and other retirement savings options provided by Leidos, understanding how these plans complement each other.
Retirement Options at Leidos: Leidos offers employees various retirement options, including defined benefit pension plans and retirement savings plans. These options can greatly impact an employee’s financial planning for retirement, helping them ensure a steady income stream post-retirement. Employees should carefully consider how their pension plans complement their 401(k) and other retirement benefits to make informed financial decisions.
In what ways can an employee at Leidos maximize their retirement benefits, particularly regarding the integration of short-term and long-term disability benefits? Employees should assess their eligibility for both STD and LTD benefits to navigate their retirement effectively while ensuring their financial security during any potential health-related absences.
Maximizing Retirement Benefits and Disability: Employees at Leidos can maximize their retirement benefits by understanding how short-term and long-term disability (STD/LTD) benefits integrate with their retirement plans. STD covers up to 180 days, and LTD can provide up to 60% of base salary if a disability extends beyond 180 days. Understanding the eligibility and benefit durations can help employees ensure financial stability during health-related work absences(Leidos_2018 Disability …).
How do the IRS limits for 2024 relate to the retirement savings plans available at Leidos, and what strategies can employees employ to ensure they are on track to meet these limits? Understanding the contribution limits for 401(k) plans and the implications of these limits can provide an essential framework for retirement savings.
IRS Limits for 2024: The IRS contribution limits for 401(k) plans in 2024 are crucial for retirement planning. Employees should stay informed about these limits to ensure they are contributing the maximum allowable amount to their retirement accounts. Leidos’ retirement plans are structured to accommodate these limits, allowing employees to optimize their retirement savings.
What are the distinct differences between the short-term and long-term disability benefits provided by Leidos that employees should understand before entering retirement? Employees must grasp how STD and LTD benefits operate, including eligibility requirements, duration of benefits, and how they can influence financial planning for retirement.
Differences Between STD and LTD at Leidos: Leidos provides both short-term and long-term disability plans, which differ in eligibility, duration, and coverage. STD benefits last for up to 180 days, while LTD benefits take effect afterward and can cover up to 60% of base salary. Understanding these differences is key for employees planning for potential health-related income disruptions(Leidos_2018 Disability …).
How can employees learn more about Leidos’ retirement benefits, including retirement counseling services and resources available for pre-retirement planning? Understanding how to navigate these resources is vital for employees approaching retirement to make informed decisions about their benefits.
Accessing Retirement Counseling and Resources: Leidos provides access to retirement counseling services and resources to support pre-retirement planning. Employees should take advantage of these services to better understand their retirement options, including pension payout options, 401(k) plans, and health coverage post-retirement.
What steps should an employee at Leidos take if they are considering early retirement, particularly concerning their health coverage and pension plan options? Exploring the implications of early retirement on health benefits and retirement income is essential as employees transition into this phase of life.
Steps for Early Retirement: Employees considering early retirement at Leidos should carefully review the impact on their health coverage and pension plans. Early retirement may reduce pension benefits and affect access to certain health benefits, so understanding the full financial impact is essential before making this decision.
How do Leidos’ disability policies affect an employee's retirement plans, and what should they be aware of regarding eligibility and claims processes? Knowing when and how to file claims for disability while planning for retirement can significantly affect financial stability in later years.
Disability Policies and Retirement Plans: Leidos’ disability policies can significantly affect retirement plans. Both STD and LTD policies have eligibility requirements that can influence how long an employee can receive benefits, and they should consider these policies in their broader retirement planning(Leidos_2018 Disability …).
In what ways can retirement planning discussions evolve at Leidos, especially as employees enter their final years of service? This inquiry addresses the evolving nature of retirement benefits and effective planning practices employees should prioritize as they prepare to retire.
Evolving Retirement Planning Discussions: Retirement planning at Leidos should evolve as employees approach the end of their careers. Employees should regularly review their pension plans, retirement savings, and healthcare options to ensure they are maximizing their benefits and making adjustments as needed for a smooth transition into retirement.
What information can Leidos employees access regarding their pension plan's payout options upon retirement, and what factors should they consider when selecting their payout option? Understanding the different distributions available to employees can help them choose the best option for their financial situation post-retirement.
Pension Plan Payout Options: Leidos employees can access detailed information regarding pension plan payout options, including lump-sum and annuity payments. Employees should evaluate factors such as longevity, tax implications, and financial needs when selecting the best payout option to ensure financial security in retirement.
How can employees at Leidos contact Human Resources to inquire further about their retirement options and benefits? Clear communication channels and support can facilitate a smoother transition into retirement for all employees looking to understand their rights and benefits associated with retirement at Leidos.
Contacting Human Resources for Retirement Inquiries: Leidos employees can contact Human Resources to inquire about retirement options, benefits, and any necessary paperwork. Clear communication with HR is essential for understanding the specific retirement resources available and ensuring a smooth retirement process.