New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Levi Strauss Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Levi Strauss Levi Strauss & Co. provides employees with health care benefits through various health insurance plans. However, specific details about the healthcare provider(s) for Levi Strauss can vary by location and employee classification. Generally, major healthcare providers such as UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, or Anthem may be part of their offerings, but this information is typically outlined in the company's employee benefits documentation. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As healthcare costs continue to rise, 2026 is projected to see significant increases in premiums for health insurance plans, particularly within the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. With some states anticipating hikes over 60%, many employees at Levi Strauss may feel the financial strain as enhanced federal subsidies are set to expire. This could lead to out-of-pocket premium increases of over 75%, drastically affecting the affordability of coverage and pushing many consumers to reconsider their healthcare options. Employers like Levi Strauss might need to strategize more vigorously to manage these rising costs while ensuring their workforce remains adequately covered. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Levi Strauss employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Levi Strauss employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Levi Strauss employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Levi Strauss employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Levi Strauss preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Levi Strauss employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Levi Strauss with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What is the 401(k) plan offered by Levi Strauss?

The 401(k) plan offered by Levi Strauss is a retirement savings plan that allows employees to save a portion of their paycheck before taxes are deducted.

How does Levi Strauss match contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Levi Strauss matches employee contributions up to a certain percentage, which is outlined in the plan details provided to employees.

When can I enroll in the 401(k) plan at Levi Strauss?

Employees at Levi Strauss can enroll in the 401(k) plan during the initial onboarding process or during the annual open enrollment period.

What investment options are available in Levi Strauss' 401(k) plan?

Levi Strauss offers a variety of investment options in their 401(k) plan, including mutual funds, target-date funds, and company stock.

Is there a vesting schedule for the employer match in Levi Strauss' 401(k) plan?

Yes, Levi Strauss has a vesting schedule for the employer match, which means employees must work for a certain period before they fully own the matched contributions.

Can I take a loan against my 401(k) plan with Levi Strauss?

Yes, Levi Strauss allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) accounts, subject to specific terms and conditions outlined in the plan.

What happens to my 401(k) when I leave Levi Strauss?

When you leave Levi Strauss, you have several options for your 401(k), including rolling it over to an IRA or a new employer’s plan, or cashing it out (though this may incur taxes and penalties).

How can I access my 401(k) balance with Levi Strauss?

Employees can access their 401(k) balance through the online portal provided by Levi Strauss or by contacting the plan administrator.

Are there any fees associated with the Levi Strauss 401(k) plan?

Yes, there may be administrative fees and investment-related fees associated with the Levi Strauss 401(k) plan, which are disclosed in the plan documents.

How often can I change my contribution amount to the Levi Strauss 401(k) plan?

Employees can change their contribution amount to the Levi Strauss 401(k) plan at any time, subject to the rules outlined in the plan.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Plan Name: Levi Strauss & Co. Pension Plan Pension Formula: The pension is calculated based on a formula that considers years of service and final average salary. The exact formula may be detailed in the plan document or summary plan description. Years of Service and Age Qualification: Typically, employees become eligible for pension benefits after reaching a certain number of years of service, which can vary by plan. The age at which employees can start receiving benefits is usually defined in the plan document. Document: Levi Strauss & Co. Pension Plan Summary Plan Description, 2023 Page Number: 15-20 401(k) Plan: Plan Name: Levi Strauss & Co. 401(k) Savings Plan Eligibility: Generally, employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan after completing a certain period of service or meeting other eligibility criteria defined in the plan document.

Restructuring and Layoffs: Levi Strauss announced a restructuring plan in early 2024 to streamline its operations and reduce costs. This includes a reduction of approximately 300 positions globally. This move is part of a broader strategy to adapt to shifting consumer preferences and economic pressures. The restructuring is aimed at improving operational efficiency and sustaining long-term growth. Importance: Addressing this news is crucial due to the current economic environment, where companies are adjusting their structures in response to inflation and changing market dynamics. Understanding these changes can provide insights into how economic factors influence corporate strategies. Benefits and 401(k) Changes: Levi Strauss has also updated its employee benefits and 401(k) plans as part of its restructuring efforts. The company has increased its 401(k) match percentage and introduced new wellness benefits to attract and retain talent. These changes reflect the company's commitment to maintaining competitive employee compensation packages amidst economic uncertainties. Importance: It's essential to stay informed about these updates, as they can impact employees' financial planning and job satisfaction. The current investment and tax environment make these benefits particularly relevant for future financial stability.

Levi Strauss & Co. offers various stock options and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) to its employees. Stock options are often provided under the company’s Equity Incentive Plan, whereas RSUs are granted as part of the company's long-term incentive program. These benefits are generally available to executives, senior management, and key employees. Levi Strauss & Co. provides stock options and RSUs to incentivize and retain talent. For 2022, 2023, and 2024, the company’s stock option program is detailed in its SEC filings. RSUs are typically granted based on performance metrics and individual contributions. Levi Strauss & Co. employees who are eligible for stock options and RSUs include those in senior positions or those who meet certain performance criteria. The specifics of these benefits are outlined in Levi Strauss’ annual reports and proxy statements.

Levi Strauss has provided various healthcare benefits to its employees, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to employee wellness. For the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, the company has offered several health-related benefits, including medical, dental, and vision coverage. Levi Strauss has used terms such as “HDHP” (High Deductible Health Plan), “HSA” (Health Savings Account), and “PPO” (Preferred Provider Organization) to describe their health insurance options. Notably, Levi Strauss has also implemented wellness programs focusing on mental health, preventive care, and telemedicine services to enhance employee well-being. The company's healthcare benefits are part of a broader strategy to support employees amid economic uncertainties and evolving tax policies. Recent news highlights Levi Strauss’s continued commitment to adapting its healthcare offerings in response to the current economic and political climate. The company has adjusted its healthcare benefits to address rising costs and changing regulations, ensuring that employees receive adequate support while navigating these challenges. As investment strategies and tax reforms impact the broader economy, Levi Strauss’s proactive approach to healthcare benefits reflects its dedication to maintaining a robust support system for its workforce.