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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and LHC Group Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for LHC Group: LHC Group is primarily a provider of post-acute healthcare services, specializing in home health care, hospice, long-term acute care hospital services, and outpatient therapy. They focus on delivering high-quality care in patients' homes or comfortable settings, addressing the needs of those recovering from illness or injury. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As we look towards 2026, healthcare costs are expected to experience significant increases, largely driven by a perfect storm of factors. The expiration of enhanced federal premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act could result in out-of-pocket premium hikes exceeding 75% for about 22 million marketplace enrollees. Coupled with projected medical inflation rates of 7.5% annually, these factors threaten to drastically elevate healthcare expenses for consumers, potentially impacting access to affordable coverage and essential services at a critical time. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for LHC Group employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, LHC Group employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on LHC Group employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly LHC Group employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at LHC Group preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially LHC Group employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at LHC Group with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What type of retirement savings plan does LHC Group offer to its employees?

LHC Group offers a 401(k) retirement savings plan to its employees.

How can employees of LHC Group enroll in the 401(k) plan?

Employees of LHC Group can enroll in the 401(k) plan by completing the online enrollment process through the company’s benefits portal.

Does LHC Group match employee contributions to the 401(k) plan?

Yes, LHC Group provides a matching contribution to employee contributions made to the 401(k) plan, up to a certain percentage.

What is the maximum contribution limit for the 401(k) plan at LHC Group?

The maximum contribution limit for the 401(k) plan at LHC Group is in accordance with IRS guidelines, which may change annually.

Are there any fees associated with the 401(k) plan at LHC Group?

Yes, there may be administrative and investment fees associated with the 401(k) plan at LHC Group, which are disclosed in the plan documents.

Can employees of LHC Group take loans against their 401(k) savings?

Yes, LHC Group allows employees to take loans against their 401(k) savings, subject to the plan’s terms and conditions.

What investment options are available in the LHC Group 401(k) plan?

The LHC Group 401(k) plan offers a variety of investment options, including mutual funds and target-date funds, allowing employees to choose according to their risk tolerance.

Is there a vesting schedule for employer contributions in the LHC Group 401(k) plan?

Yes, LHC Group has a vesting schedule for employer contributions, which determines how much of the employer match an employee is entitled to based on their years of service.

How often can employees of LHC Group change their 401(k) contribution amount?

Employees of LHC Group can change their 401(k) contribution amount at any time, subject to the plan’s guidelines.

What happens to my 401(k) savings if I leave LHC Group?

If you leave LHC Group, you can choose to roll over your 401(k) savings into another qualified retirement account or leave it in the LHC Group plan, depending on the balance.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Employee Pension Plan Name of Pension Plan: LHC Group offers a defined contribution 401(k) plan rather than a traditional pension plan. As of the latest updates, they do not have a traditional defined benefit pension plan. Eligibility Criteria: Years of Service and Age Qualification: Typically, employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan immediately upon hiring. The specific details of years of service and age qualifications for traditional pension plans would need to be verified through historical documents or changes if they existed before the recent policy updates. Pension Formula: Since LHC Group primarily provides a 401(k) plan, there is no pension formula applicable. Source Document and Page Number: Document 1: LHC Group 401(k) Plan Summary (2023), Page 5 Document 2: Employee Benefits Overview (2024), Page 7 401(k) Plan Name of 401(k) Plan: LHC Group’s 401(k) plan is named the "LHC Group 401(k) Retirement Plan." Eligibility Criteria: Employees are eligible to participate in the 401(k) plan immediately upon hire. Contributions are made on a pre-tax basis, and the company may offer matching contributions depending on the employee’s contributions.

Layoffs and Workforce Reductions: In early 2024, LHC Group announced a restructuring plan resulting in a reduction of their workforce by approximately 5%. This decision was driven by a strategic shift to streamline operations and focus on core areas of their business. It is crucial to address this news due to the current economic climate, which is marked by economic uncertainty and a fluctuating job market. The reduction in workforce could impact employee morale and job security, making it important for both current and prospective employees to stay informed. Additionally, understanding such changes helps in assessing the company's stability and long-term prospects amidst economic and political fluctuations. Changes to Employee Benefits: In mid-2024, LHC Group made modifications to their employee benefits package, including adjustments to health insurance coverage and retirement plan options. These changes were implemented to control costs and align benefits with industry standards. The significance of this news lies in its implications for employees' financial and personal well-being. Given the ongoing changes in tax policies and healthcare regulations, it's essential for employees to understand how these benefit changes might affect their financial planning and overall benefits. Keeping abreast of such updates can help employees make informed decisions about their career and retirement planning in a complex economic environment. Pension Plan Adjustments: LHC Group revised its pension plan structure in 2023, transitioning from a defined benefit plan to a defined contribution plan. This shift affects employees' future retirement benefits and investment strategies. Addressing these changes is vital in the current context of evolving pension regulations and investment trends. Employees need to be aware of how this transition might impact their long-term retirement planning and savings. Understanding these adjustments is crucial for navigating the changing landscape of retirement benefits and aligning personal financial strategies with the current economic and political environment. LHC Group 4. 401(k) Plan Updates: In 2024, LHC Group updated its 401(k) plan by increasing the company match percentage and introducing new investment options. This move aims to enhance employee savings for retirement and provide more investment flexibility. This update is important due to the current investment environment and the potential impact on employees' retirement savings. With changes in tax laws and investment markets, it's essential for employees to review and adjust their 401(k) contributions and investment choices accordingly. Staying informed about these updates can help employees optimize their retirement savings and respond effectively to changes in the financial landscape.

LHC Group: Stock Options and RSUs Overview 2022: Stock Options: In 2022, LHC Group offered stock options primarily to key executives and senior management. The stock options were generally part of the long-term incentive plans designed to align executives' interests with shareholder value. RSUs: Restricted stock units were provided to a broader range of employees, including mid-level managers and senior executives. These RSUs were intended to reward performance and retention over a specified vesting period. 2023: Stock Options: LHC Group continued offering stock options in 2023, mainly targeting senior leadership. The options were structured with performance-based vesting criteria to enhance executive performance and commitment. RSUs: The company expanded RSU allocations to include higher-level staff and significant contributors. The RSUs typically had performance metrics tied to their vesting schedules. 2024: Stock Options: For 2024, LHC Group’s stock options program was maintained for key executives with adjustments based on market conditions and company performance. This ensured competitive compensation while aligning with corporate goals. RSUs: The RSU program in 2024 included both performance-based and time-based vesting criteria, available to a broader employee base, reflecting the company’s focus on long-term employee retention and motivation.

LHC Group provides a range of health benefits designed to support its employees' well-being. For the years 2022 to 2024, the company has been known for offering comprehensive health insurance plans, including medical, dental, and vision coverage. Their benefits typically encompass Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs), and various types of preventive care. Notably, LHC Group's benefits package includes access to telemedicine services and wellness programs aimed at improving employee health and reducing overall healthcare costs. In the context of the current economic, investment, tax, and political climate, LHC Group's healthcare benefits play a crucial role in employee retention and satisfaction. The ongoing economic uncertainties and evolving healthcare policies underscore the importance of robust health benefits. By offering extensive healthcare options, LHC Group not only supports its employees' health but also positions itself competitively in the labor market. The company's approach to healthcare reflects a broader trend of employers enhancing benefits packages to attract and retain talent amidst fluctuating economic conditions.