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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Lubrizol Employees' Retirement

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Lubrizol employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Lubrizol employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Lubrizol employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Lubrizol employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Lubrizol preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Lubrizol employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Lubrizol with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the considerations Lubrizol employees should take into account when deciding between a monthly annuity payment and a one-time lump sum payment from the BHCPP Plan? How does each option affect their overall retirement strategy, particularly regarding tax implications and cash flow management?

Monthly Annuity vs. Lump Sum Payment: Lubrizol employees choosing between a monthly annuity and a lump sum payment should consider their personal financial needs, tax situation, and cash flow. The lump sum payment offers a one-time cash amount that can be invested or used immediately but could be subject to higher taxes if not rolled over properly. On the other hand, an annuity provides steady income for life, which may be beneficial for long-term cash flow management. Consulting a financial advisor is crucial to determine the best option based on individual circumstances(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

In what ways do early retirement age milestones affect the value of retirement benefits for Lubrizol employees? Specifically, how do the age thresholds of 55 and 62 impact the reduction of benefits, and what strategies can employees employ to maximize their benefits around these key ages?

Early Retirement Age Milestones: Retirement age milestones, particularly 55 and 62, play a significant role in determining benefit values. At age 55, employees with 10 years of service receive a partially subsidized early retirement benefit, reducing the financial penalty for early retirement. At age 62, employees qualify for a full early retirement subsidy, which significantly boosts benefit value. Employees should consider these age thresholds when planning their retirement strategy(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

How does the current interest rate environment influence the lump sum value offered to retiring Lubrizol employees? Can you elaborate on how employees can use the pension modeler to forecast the potential financial outcomes of their lump sum offer in relation to interest rate changes?

Interest Rates and Lump Sum Value: The lump sum value for Lubrizol retirees is heavily influenced by the Federal interest rates. As interest rates rise, lump sum payments decrease, and vice versa. Employees can use the pension modeler provided by Lubrizol to forecast how interest rate changes will affect their lump sum payment. This tool allows employees to simulate different scenarios based on their planned retirement dates and interest rate assumptions(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

What resources and tools does Lubrizol provide to help employees understand the implications of their retirement benefits? Additionally, how can employees utilize Empower's financial planning team to align their retirement savings and pension benefits with their long-term financial goals?

Resources for Retirement Planning: Lubrizol provides several resources to help employees understand their retirement benefits. These include the pension modeler, which simulates retirement scenarios, and access to Empower’s financial planning team. Employees can use these tools to align their retirement savings and pension benefits with long-term goals and gain a clearer picture of what retirement may look like(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

In the context of the BHCPP Plan, what are the steps Lubrizol employees should follow to ensure they receive the correct retirement kit and benefit calculation based on the upcoming interest rates? What are the key deadlines and documentation required for making an informed decision?

Steps for Accurate Retirement Kit and Benefit Calculation: To receive the correct retirement kit and benefit calculation, Lubrizol employees need to request a retirement kit from the BHCPP Pension Service Center before key deadlines. For example, those targeting a benefit commencement date of December 1, 2022, must request a kit by November 1, 2022. Using the pension modeler can also help employees estimate their lump sum based on upcoming interest rates(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

How do Lubrizol's retirement benefits integrate with Social Security and other personal savings an employee may have? What should employees consider when evaluating their total retirement package, and how can they effectively project their income in retirement?

Integration with Social Security and Other Savings: Lubrizol’s retirement benefits should be considered alongside Social Security and personal savings. Employees can model their total retirement income using Empower's tools, which include data from their pension and 401(k). It's essential for employees to project their income from all sources to ensure financial stability in retirement(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

How does the pension modeler work for Lubrizol employees, and what unique features does it offer to help in planning their retirement? Can you discuss specific scenarios that employees might model, such as varying retirement dates or different financial assumptions?

Pension Modeler for Retirement Planning: The pension modeler available to Lubrizol employees is a powerful tool that allows them to simulate different retirement scenarios, including varying retirement ages and financial assumptions. Employees can model up to three scenarios simultaneously, enabling them to make informed decisions about the timing of their retirement and the potential financial outcomes(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

What information should Lubrizol employees gather prior to consulting with personal financial planners or the Lubrizol-sponsored CFPs? How can being well-prepared enhance the quality of advice and strategies received during such consultations?

Preparation for Financial Planner Consultations: Prior to consulting with financial planners, Lubrizol employees should gather comprehensive details about their personal financial situation, including monthly income, savings, expenses, and retirement goals. Being well-prepared will enhance the quality of advice they receive and enable more effective retirement planning(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

Can you explain the impact of Federal interest rates on the calculation of lump sum payments for Lubrizol retirees? How frequently are these rates updated, and where can employees find the most recent data relevant to their retirement planning?

Impact of Federal Interest Rates on Lump Sum Payments: Federal interest rates, updated annually in October, significantly affect the calculation of lump sum payments for Lubrizol retirees. These rates are used to discount future annuity payments to present value. Employees can find the latest interest rate data on the IRS website or through Lubrizol’s pension modeler(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…)(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).

How can Lubrizol employees contact the BHCPP Pension Service Center for further assistance regarding their retirement benefits? What specific information should they have on hand to facilitate a productive conversation about their retirement options? These questions are designed to provide depth and complexity, encouraging detailed exploration and resources related to the retirement process for Lubrizol employees.

Contacting the BHCPP Pension Service Center: Lubrizol employees can contact the BHCPP Pension Service Center at 877-459-2403 for assistance with retirement benefits. To have a productive conversation, employees should have their retirement kit request details, planned retirement dates, and personal financial information readily available(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…)(Lubrizol_11_1_2022_Lump…).