New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and NiSource Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: NiSource provides employees with a variety of health insurance options including PPO, HMO, and high-deductible plans with HSAs. Dental and vision coverage is available, along with FSAs for healthcare and dependent care. Life insurance equal to twice base pay is company-paid, with options to purchase additional coverage. Disability benefits, accident insurance, and paid sick leave are also included. Retirement benefits feature a 401(k) plan with matching, and employees may receive opt-out credits if they decline coverage 2. NiSource As ACA premiums rise, NiSources employer-sponsored plans and pre-tax savings accounts offer employees a more affordable and stable alternative to marketplace coverage. With insurers requesting double-digit increases and federal subsidies potentially expiring, employer-backed plans like NiSources help shield employees from steep out-of-pocket costs. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for NiSource employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, NiSource employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on NiSource employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly NiSource employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at NiSource preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially NiSource employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at NiSource with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

Featured Video

Articles you may find interesting:

Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

As an employee of National Grid, what are the key eligibility criteria for participating in the Pension Plan specifically for Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation employees? How might these criteria impact your personal retirement planning and the benefits you expect to receive upon retirement from National Grid?

Eligibility Criteria for Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan: Employees of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation who are represented by Local Union 97 of the IBEW and work at least 20 hours per week or accumulate 1,000 hours in a Pension Plan year are eligible. Participation begins automatically on the first day of employment. These criteria directly impact retirement planning by determining when employees begin accruing pension benefits and how much they will receive at retirement(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

Within the framework of the National Grid Pension Plan, how does the cash balance formula work in calculating retirement benefits, and what implications does this have for employees of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation when considering their long-term financial outlook?

Cash Balance Formula: The National Grid Pension Plan for Niagara Mohawk employees uses a cash balance formula that provides monthly pay-based credits (starting at 4% and increasing with years of service) and interest credits. These accumulate in a hypothetical account, growing until retirement, allowing employees to track their retirement benefits much like a savings account. This formula impacts financial outlook by providing predictable growth tied to service and pay(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

For employees at National Grid, what are the specific rights and options available during the pension benefit application process? How do these rights protect the interests of individual employees and ensure they receive fair treatment under the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan?

Pension Benefit Application Process: National Grid employees must apply for their pension benefits by submitting the required forms at least 90 days before retirement. Spousal consent is required if opting for any form of payment other than the default. This ensures employees understand and select the best payment option for their circumstances, protecting their interests under the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

Given the different types of credits that contribute to the pension benefit for employees of National Grid, how are Pay-based Credits and interest credits calculated? What strategies might Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation employees employ to maximize these credits before retirement?

Pay-based and Interest Credits Calculation: Pay-based credits are determined by years of service, starting at 4% of pay and increasing to 8% after 20 years. Interest credits are based on an annual interest rate tied to the Treasury securities and corporate bond rates. Employees can maximize these credits by continuing to work and contributing to their pension balance(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

How do pension benefits work for Transition Group Employees specifically within National Grid's framework, and what unique provisions apply to them under the Pension Plan as compared to regular employees of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation?

Pension Benefits for Transition Group Employees: Transition Group Employees under the National Grid Pension Plan have benefits calculated using both the former final average pay formula and the cash balance formula, with the greater benefit being paid out. This differs from regular employees who only receive benefits calculated under the cash balance formula(National_Grid_2023_Niag…)(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

What are the repercussions for National Grid employees in terms of benefit loss or limitation if they have not met the Vesting requirements under the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan? How can understanding these repercussions influence an employee's decision-making regarding their career and retirement?

Impact of Vesting Requirements: Employees must complete three years of service to become vested in the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan. If they leave before vesting, they lose all accrued pension benefits. Understanding vesting requirements is crucial for career and retirement planning, as it ensures employees retain their pension benefits if they meet the criteria(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

As a current employee at National Grid, what does the termination of the Pension Plan imply for accrued benefits under the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan? Specifically, how do federal protections through ERISA and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation come into play for employees seeking assurance regarding their retirement funds?

Termination of Pension Plan and Federal Protections: If the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan is terminated, accrued benefits are protected by ERISA and insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). Employees can feel assured that their benefits will be secured up to the PBGC's limits in case of plan termination(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

How does the National Grid Pension Plan accommodate the unique situations of employees during times of disability or military service, and what steps should Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation employees take to ensure their benefits continue during these periods?

Disability and Military Service: Niagara Mohawk employees receive service credits during periods of disability or military leave, ensuring continuous pension accrual. Employees should ensure their disability or military status is properly documented with the company to avoid interruptions in their pension benefits(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

When considering the various forms of pension payments available to retirees from National Grid, what are the potential advantages and disadvantages of choosing an annuity versus a lump-sum payment for employees from Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation?

Annuity vs. Lump-Sum Payment: Retirees at National Grid have the option to choose between an annuity, providing a steady income for life, or a lump-sum payment. The annuity provides financial stability, while a lump sum offers flexibility. The choice depends on individual financial needs and retirement goals(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).

For those looking to gain further clarity on the nuances of the Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan, what are the most effective ways for employees to contact National Grid for assistance? How can engaging with the Pension Service Center enhance an employee's understanding of their benefits and rights?

Contacting National Grid for Pension Assistance: Employees seeking more information about their Niagara Mohawk Pension Plan can contact the National Grid Pension Service Center or use the online pension modeler. Engaging with the Pension Service Center provides personalized guidance, helping employees understand their benefits and make informed decisions(National_Grid_2023_Niag…).