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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Nordson Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Nordson offers a comprehensive benefits package to its U.S. employees, including medical, dental, vision, and prescription coverage. The company supports employee wellness through HSAs, FSAs, and a wellbeing program. Retirement benefits include both traditional and Roth 401(k) options, life insurance, and disability coverage. Nordson also provides paid time off, adoption reimbursement, and tuition assistance5. Healthcare costs in the United States are projected to continue rising through 2026, with insurers proposing significant premium increases for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans. A recent analysis found that ACA insurers are seeking a median premium increase of 15% for 2026, marking the largest hike since 2018. This surge is attributed to factors such as the anticipated expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, rising medical costsincluding expensive medications and increased hospital staysand a shift in the risk pool towards higher-cost enrollees. Without the renewal of enhanced subsidies, out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees could increase by more than 75% on average. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Nordson employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Nordson employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Nordson employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Nordson employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Nordson preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Nordson employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Nordson with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Nordson Corporation Salaried Employees Pension Plan calculate an employee's Accrued Benefit, and what factors need to be considered to ensure accurate pension benefits at retirement? Understanding the components that contribute to the calculation is crucial for employees planning their retirement through Nordson Corporation.

Accrued Benefit Calculation: Nordson Corporation calculates an employee’s Accrued Benefit based on the Final Average Monthly Pay, the number of Years of Benefit Service, and an estimate of the employee’s Social Security benefit. The formula used includes a reduction if an employee has less than 30 Years of Benefit Service(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

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Eligibility Criteria: Employees become eligible for the Nordson Corporation Salaried Employees Pension Plan after completing a Year of Eligibility Service, which requires at least 1,000 hours of work annually. Vesting occurs after completing 5 Years of Vesting Service, ensuring full entitlement to benefits(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

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Accessing Pension Information and Claiming: Employees can access their pension plan details through John Hancock’s website or phone service. If a benefit claim is denied, employees can follow the claims procedure outlined by Nordson, which includes submitting a written request and appealing decisions(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

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Early Retirement Options: Nordson Corporation offers early retirement options starting at age 55, with at least 5 years of vesting service. Benefits are reduced by 6% per year for each year that early retirement is taken before the Normal Retirement Date(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

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Monthly Benefit Payments: Employees retiring from Nordson Corporation can choose various payment methods, including a Life Annuity or a 50% Joint & Survivor Annuity for married participants. Payments start after the Normal Retirement Date or early retirement, depending on the selected option(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

What rights do participants have under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) concerning their Nordson Corporation pension plan, and what should they do to enforce these rights effectively? Employees should be aware of their rights to protect themselves during the benefit claiming process.

ERISA Rights: Under ERISA, participants have the right to receive information about their benefits, file claims, and sue if benefits are denied. Plan fiduciaries must act in the best interest of employees, and participants are protected from retaliation for asserting their rights(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

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Plan Termination or Amendment: If the plan is terminated or amended, accrued benefits cannot be reduced, and employees’ benefits become 100% vested. This ensures that employees retain the benefits they have earned up to the point of the change(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

In what situations might employees at Nordson Corporation lose their pension benefits, and what preventative actions can they take to ensure they remain eligible for these benefits? Understanding the risks involved in pension plans can aid employees in maintaining their retirement security.

Loss of Pension Benefits: Employees may lose pension benefits if they leave Nordson Corporation before vesting or fail to select appropriate survivor options. Keeping the Plan Administrator informed of current contact information is crucial to avoid losing benefits(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

How can employees at Nordson Corporation address questions or concerns related to their retirement planning, and what resources are available for personalized assistance? Access to proper resources is vital for employees needing guidance throughout their retirement journey.

Retirement Planning Resources: Employees can contact the Plan Administrator or use John Hancock’s automated services to address questions about retirement planning. Personalized assistance is available for any specific pension-related inquiries(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

What steps should employees take to contact Nordson Corporation or the Plan Administrator to get detailed information about their pension plan, and what should they include in their inquiries to ensure a comprehensive response? Effective communication techniques can significantly enhance employees' understanding of their benefits. These questions have been designed to help employees of Nordson Corporation navigate their pension plan and retirement effectively.

Contacting the Plan Administrator: Employees can contact Nordson Corporation or the Plan Administrator by calling the number listed in the Summary Plan Description. It’s advisable to provide detailed questions regarding benefit amounts, vesting status, or payment options to receive a thorough response(Nordson Corporation_Feb…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

Pension Plan Name: Nordson Corporation Retirement Plan Qualification Criteria: Years of Service: Generally requires a minimum of 5 years. Age Qualification: Typically eligible at age 65. Pension Formula: Formula is based on a percentage of final average salary and years of service. 401(k) Plan Name: Nordson Corporation 401(k) Savings Plan Qualification Criteria: Employees are eligible to participate after completing 30 days of service. Company Contribution: Nordson matches employee contributions up to a certain percentage.

News: In early 2024, Nordson Corporation announced a significant restructuring plan, including a reduction of approximately 5% of its global workforce. This move was part of a broader strategy to streamline operations and improve overall efficiency. The company also updated its employee benefits package, including modifications to its pension and 401k plans. Specific changes included adjusting the company’s matching contributions and modifying pension benefit accrual rates.

Nordson Corporation (NDSN) provides stock options and RSUs to employees as part of their compensation packages. Stock options at Nordson Corporation (NDSN) are generally granted to senior executives and key employees based on performance and tenure. RSUs are also awarded to employees as a form of long-term incentive, typically vesting over a period of time.

Benefits Overview: Nordson's official site provides information on various health benefits including medical, dental, and vision insurance plans. Employees have access to comprehensive health coverage, which typically includes options for health savings accounts (HSAs) and flexible spending accounts (FSAs). Recent Updates: The company has updated its benefits plans over the years. Specific changes for 2022, 2023, and 2024 can be found in their annual benefits summaries or employee communications.