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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Resolute Forest Products Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Resolute Forest Products offers health insurance benefits that include enhanced dental and vision coverage, life insurance, and long-term disability. Recent union agreements have increased benefit amounts and added vacation time. Employees also have access to a benefits portal for managing coverage and making changes during open enrollment 8. Healthcare costs in the United States are projected to continue rising through 2026, with insurers proposing significant premium increases for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans. A recent analysis found that ACA insurers are seeking a median premium increase of 15% for 2026, marking the largest hike since 2018. This surge is attributed to factors such as the anticipated expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, rising medical costsincluding expensive medications and increased hospital staysand a shift in the risk pool towards higher-cost enrollees. Without the renewal of enhanced subsidies, out-of-pocket premiums for ACA marketplace enrollees could increase by more than 75% on average. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Resolute Forest Products employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Resolute Forest Products employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Resolute Forest Products employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Resolute Forest Products employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Resolute Forest Products preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Resolute Forest Products employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Resolute Forest Products with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan interact with other retirement savings options that employees may have? Employees at the Pulp and Paper Industry are encouraged to understand the implications of their pension benefits when considering their overall retirement strategy. Given the complexity of retirement planning, how should one factor in the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan alongside personal savings, employer-matched contributions, and other investment accounts?

Pension Plan Interaction with Other Retirement Savings: Employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry should consider the Pension Plan as a foundational part of their overall retirement strategy. When planning for retirement, it's crucial to balance the pension benefits alongside personal savings, employer-matched contributions, and other investment accounts such as RRSPs or TFSAs. The Pension Plan, contributing a stable retirement income, can complement more flexible savings vehicles that provide additional liquidity and growth potential, especially considering tax implications and withdrawal strategies for an efficient retirement portfolio.

What are the key factors that determine the monthly pension payment upon retirement for employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry? Understanding the formula that calculates the pension benefits based on earnings, years of service, and the applicable rates is crucial for employees planning their retirement. Can you elaborate on how these elements work together to produce an individual's retirement income?

Key Factors Determining Pension Payments: The monthly pension payment for employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry is primarily calculated based on credited service, eligible earnings, and the applicable pension benefit rate. The formula integrates years of service with the employee's average earnings and the benefit accrual rate of 1.55%. This means the longer the employee's service and the higher their eligible earnings, the larger the pension payout. The calculation is also influenced by early retirement reductions or post-65 service, ensuring that employees' retirement income reflects their contribution history(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

In what circumstances can employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry expect a reduction in their pension benefits, and what specific actions can be taken to mitigate this reduction? An in-depth examination of early retirement options, the choices available at different ages, and the financial implications is vital for long-term planning. What steps should an employee take before deciding to retire early?

Circumstances Affecting Pension Reductions: Employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry may face pension reductions if they retire before the age of 65. Early retirement between 55 and 65 incurs a reduction in pension benefits, ranging from 3% to 18%, depending on the age of retirement. To mitigate this reduction, employees can consider working longer or maximizing other retirement savings before electing early retirement. It's essential to review the pension reduction tables and consult the Plan Administrator to understand the financial implications of early retirement(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How are employee contributions structured under the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan, and what is the impact of these contributions on overall retirement savings? Employees need to understand how their contributions, along with the employer's match, affect their future pension benefits. Could you detail the contribution rates and how they relate to the final pension payout?

Employee Contributions and Pension Benefits: Employees contribute 8% of their earnings to the Plan, while employers contribute 10%. These contributions directly impact the pension benefits, with higher contributions resulting in more substantial retirement payouts. Contributions stop once 2080 hours are paid within a plan year. Understanding how both employee and employer contributions accumulate is crucial for estimating future benefits and integrating them into overall retirement savings(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What is the process for employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry who experience a significant life event, such as marriage breakdown or disability, to adjust their pension plan? Employees need to be aware of the rights and options available to adjust their benefits in light of personal circumstances. What documentation is needed, and how does the process work?

Adjusting Pension Plan for Life Events: Significant life events such as marriage breakdown or disability allow employees to adjust their pension benefits. In the event of a marriage breakdown, 50% of the pension earned during the marriage may be split with the spouse, and specific forms and legal agreements are required for this process. Disability provisions may allow the employee to continue earning credited service without contributing. Employees should submit medical evidence or legal documents as necessary to the Plan Administrator to process adjustments(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How can employees in the Pulp and Paper Industry ensure that their personal information remains secure while accessing their pension benefits? Given the sensitive nature of financial information, it is crucial for employees to understand the privacy measures in place. What steps are taken to protect personal data, and what should employees do if they have concerns regarding their privacy?

Securing Personal Information: The Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan takes employee privacy seriously by using appropriate safeguards to protect personal information. Data is only shared with pension professionals for plan administration purposes. Employees can access their personal information and correct inaccuracies by contacting the Plan Administrator. If employees have concerns about data security, they should report them immediately to ensure their privacy is maintained(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What resources are available for employees of the Pulp and Paper Industry to access more detailed information about their pension benefit calculations and options? Seeking information through the right channels is essential for making informed decisions about retirement planning. Can you provide an overview of the tools and resources available to employees for understanding their benefit entitlements?

Resources for Pension Information: Employees have access to a variety of resources to help them understand their pension benefits. These include the Plan’s official web portal, personalized pension statements, and direct assistance from the Plan Administrator. For more detailed information, employees can consult their collective agreement and Plan documents, or they may contact the Administrator for personalized pension projections and guidance(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

In terms of the Pulp and Paper Industry's collective agreements with the Public and Private Workers of Canada (PPWC) or Unifor, how do those agreements affect pension benefits? Understanding these agreements is critical for employees as they directly influence the terms of the pension plan. Can you explain how these agreements shape the benefits structure and payout options?

Impact of Collective Agreements: Collective agreements between the Pulp and Paper Industry and unions like PPWC or Unifor directly influence pension plan provisions. These agreements determine contribution rates, eligibility, and benefit structures. Changes in collective agreements may lead to adjustments in pension benefits, so employees should stay informed about any updates to their collective agreement terms(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

What implications does the Pulp and Paper Industry Pension Plan have for employeesâ€™ beneficiaries, and what should employees know about designating a beneficiary? It is imperative for individuals to understand the importance of beneficiary designations. What processes should employees follow to ensure that their beneficiaries are appropriately designated and informed?

Pension Plan for Beneficiaries: Employees must ensure they appropriately designate a beneficiary for their pension benefits. In the event of death before retirement, the spouse or designated beneficiary will receive the pension benefits. If no beneficiary is designated, benefits are paid to the estate. Employees should complete and update their beneficiary designation form regularly to reflect their wishes and avoid legal complications(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).

How can an employee in the Pulp and Paper Industry contact the Plan Administrator for assistance regarding their pension benefits? Knowing the proper contact information and support channels is essential for employees navigating their retirement benefits. What are the best ways to reach out for help, and what types of inquiries can the Plan Administrator assist with?

Contacting the Plan Administrator: Employees can contact the Plan Administrator, LifeWorks, for assistance with their pension benefits. They can reach out by phone, email, or mail for inquiries about retirement estimates, pension adjustments, or general benefit calculations. The Administrator provides essential support for processing retirement, termination, and death benefits(Pulp_and_Paper_Industry…).