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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Schneider National Employees' Retirement

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Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Schneider National: Schneider National primarily utilizes UnitedHealthcare as its healthcare provider for employee health benefits. UnitedHealthcare is renowned for offering a range of health insurance plans, including those that cater to commercial trucking and logistics companies through tailored healthcare solutions. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026: As we move toward 2026, Schneider National, like many employers, may face significant healthcare cost increases primarily due to anticipated premium hikes in the ACA marketplace. With some states expected to see increases over 60%, and the loss of enhanced federal premium subsidies looming, employees could experience out-of-pocket premium costs rising by as much as 75%. This alarming trend stems from escalating medical costs and the financial pressures on insurers, which may lead to tougher choices for companies in managing benefits while ensuring their workforce stays adequately covered. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Schneider National employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Schneider National employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

  1. The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.

  2. How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Schneider National employees.

  3. Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Schneider National employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. 1

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. 2  Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Schneider National preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Schneider National employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Schneider National with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.'  Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.'  Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.'  MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.'  VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.'  BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the eligibility criteria for employees to participate in the Schneider Electric pension plan, and how do these criteria vary for salaried and hourly employees of Schneider Electric? In your answer, please elaborate on the implications of the different eligibility dates and any exceptions that may apply, such as coverage under collective bargaining agreements or participation in other retirement plans maintained by Schneider Electric.

Salaried and Hourly Employees: Eligible employees include those hired before January 1, 2006. Salaried employees become plan members the January 1 after joining the company if they are scheduled to work at least 17.5 hours per week, or if working less but completing 1,000 hours in a year. Hourly employees become members upon completing one hour of service. Exceptions: Employees hired or rehired after December 31, 2005, those covered under a collective bargaining agreement unless specified otherwise, and employees currently accruing benefits under another qualified company plan are ineligible.

How does the Schneider Electric pension plan calculate the monthly retirement benefit for participants, and what factors contribute to the final benefit amount? Discuss the importance of years of service, salary history, and the effect of any early or late retirement provisions on the final pension benefit.

The pension benefit for salaried employees is calculated using a formula considering years of benefit service, average monthly compensation, and covered compensation as of December 31, 2009. The benefit depends on the retirement age, chosen benefit payment form, and if benefits are received under another company plan. For hourly employees, the pension benefit is determined by the years of benefit service as of December 31, 2009, and a pension rate effective at that time.

What options are available for employees of Schneider Electric regarding spousal benefits under the pension plan, particularly if a participant passes away before or after retirement? In answering this question, detail how these options could affect survivors' financial stability and the importance of proper beneficiary designations during an employee's tenure at Schneider Electric.

Pre-Retirement: If an employee dies before pension payments start, the surviving spouse may receive a monthly death benefit at the employee’s normal retirement date, with payments potentially starting as early as the employee's 55th birthday. Post-Retirement: Joint and survivor annuity options are available, which provide continuing income to the spouse after the participant's death. The benefit amount is adjusted based on the selected payment option.

What procedures must be followed by Schneider Electric employees to initiate the retirement process and apply for pension benefits? Include in your discussion the timeframes and eligibility requirements for different retirement options, and highlight the consequences of failing to comply with these processes.

Employees must actively apply for pension benefits through the Schneider Electric Retiree Benefits Center. The application should be made close to the retirement date but no later than 90 days prior. The process includes choosing a payment method and, if applicable, obtaining spousal consent for certain payment options.

How does Schneider Electric ensure that benefits under its pension plan comply with the regulations set forth in ERISA, and what protections are offered to plan participants regarding benefit entitlement? Discuss the implications of these regulations and how they safeguard the interests of Schneider Electric employees.

The plan is designed to comply with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), offering protections like vesting rights and fiduciary standards to ensure benefit security. Participants are entitled to a fair process for benefit claims and appeals.

What steps can Schneider Electric employees take if their claim for pension benefits is denied, and what rights do they have under ERISA to appeal such denials? Explain the importance of understanding the claims review process and the role that documentation plays in successfully navigating benefits disputes.

If a pension claim is denied, participants can appeal the decision by following the process outlined in the plan document, which includes a review and potentially an adjustment of the claim.

How does the Schneider Electric pension plan handle the calculation of benefits for employees who were re-hired after a break in service? In addressing this question, explore the effect of prior service on future benefits and the rules governing vesting and accrual for these employees as stated in the plan.

Re-hired employees retain their previously earned benefits as of December 31, 2009, but they do not accrue additional benefits. If re-hired after a break and not fully vested, previous service may count towards vesting upon return, depending on the duration of the break in service.

What is the significance of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) in the context of Schneider Electric's pension plan, and how does it provide an additional layer of security for employees’ retirement benefits? Discuss how the PBGC's involvement affects participants’ perceptions of the safety and reliability of their pension benefits.

PBGC provides an insurance backstop that guarantees continuous payment of earned pension benefits up to legal limits in the event the plan fails financially, enhancing the security of the pension for employees.

What considerations must employees of Schneider Electric keep in mind when planning for early retirement, especially concerning the benefit reduction factors that apply? Elaborate on how consistent planning and understanding of these factors can influence an employee’s financial readiness for retirement.

Employees can elect early retirement beginning at age 55 with at least 10 years of vesting service. However, benefits are reduced based on how early the retirement starts relative to the normal retirement age.

How can Schneider Electric employees contact the company to obtain more information about the pension plan and retirement benefits? Detail the available resources, including specific contact numbers and web links, ensuring that employees know where to direct their inquiries regarding the Schneider Electric pension plan.

Employees can contact the Schneider Electric Retiree Benefits Center at 1-800-964-8843 for information about their pension plan and benefits, or access details online at the provided portal.

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