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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Sonoco Products Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Sonoco Products Sonoco Products, a global packaging solutions company, collaborates with various healthcare providers to manage the health benefits of its employees. While specific providers may vary by location and plan selections, many large employers like Sonoco typically partner with prominent insurance carriers such as UnitedHealthcare, Anthem, and Cigna. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, healthcare costs for employees of Sonoco Products may experience significant increases due to anticipated premium hikes related to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). With projections indicating that premiums could rise by as much as 18% to 66% in certain states, many employees may face sharp out-of-pocket costs, particularly if enhanced federal subsidies expire. These increases will be driven by soaring medical costs and insurers' need to adjust for both economic inflation and the potential loss of critical financial support, raising concerns about accessibility and affordability for many subscribers. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Sonoco Products employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Sonoco Products employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Sonoco Products employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Sonoco Products employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Sonoco Products preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Sonoco Products employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Sonoco Products with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

In the context of the retirement benefits provided by Sonoco Products Company, what are the different scenarios that could lead an employee to choose either the Normal Retirement Benefit or the Early Retirement Benefit, and what factors should be considered in making this decision? Additionally, how do these benefits interact with the vesting service and benefit service calculations specified by Sonoco Products Company?

Normal Retirement Benefit: Available at age 65, provides full monthly pension calculated by a predetermined formula. Early Retirement Benefit: Available from age 55 with 15 years of service, but monthly payments are reduced to account for the longer payment period. Employees must weigh the reduction in monthly benefits against the potential need or desire to retire early. Considerations: The choice largely depends on personal financial needs, health status, and employment circumstances. Early retirement reduces monthly benefits, which could impact long-term financial stability.

Considering the details about tax implications in the Sonoco Pension Plan, what steps should employees take to ensure they understand the taxation of both monthly annuity payments and lump sum payments when they retire from Sonoco Products Company? What resources does Sonoco offer to assist employees in navigating these tax obligations effectively?

Monthly Annuity Payments: Subject to federal income tax; state and local taxes may also apply. Employees can choose whether or not to have taxes withheld. Lump Sum Payments: Subject to mandatory 20% federal withholding if not rolled over into another qualified plan. Employees must consult with tax professionals to understand the taxation and potential penalties, especially if under age 59½. Resources: Sonoco provides access to benefits specialists through their Benefits Center and recommends consultation with tax advisors to manage tax obligations effectively.

How does Sonoco Products Company define and calculate the "Maximum Plan Benefit," and what impact do IRS limits have on the benefits that employees may receive upon retirement? Furthermore, how does this ensure that employees understand their entitlements under the plan?

Defined by IRS limits, which cap the annual benefits an employee can receive. For 2018, the limit was $220,000. Impact: Ensures high earners are aware of the maximum pension they can draw annually, and helps in planning additional retirement savings if necessary.

For employees at Sonoco Products Company who may be considering reemployment after retirement, what are the potential impacts on their pension benefits, and what guidelines does the company provide regarding how these benefits are recalculated upon re-entering the workforce?

Pension benefits cease during reemployment and resume upon re-retirement, recalculated based on additional service. This could affect decisions on returning to work post-retirement. Guidelines: Sonoco outlines how benefits are recalculated and emphasizes consulting with the Benefits Center to understand the specific impacts.

In what ways can employees of Sonoco Products Company calculate their required service years to determine pension eligibility, and what nuances exist in the vesting and benefit service calculations? How do these calculations affect the retirement planning process for long-term employees?

Vesting Service: Determines eligibility for a pension. A minimum of five years is required for a vested pension benefit. Benefit Service: Used to calculate the amount of pension. It includes periods of employment but may exclude certain leaves or breaks in service. Implications: Understanding these definitions helps employees plan their career and retirement timing to maximize benefits.

Employees at Sonoco Products Company are often curious about the various forms of payment they can choose for their pension. What are the available options, and how do these options differ in terms of financial implications for the retiree and their beneficiaries?

Options: Single life annuity, joint and survivor annuities (50%, 75%, 100% survivor benefits). Financial Implications: Each option impacts the monthly benefit amount and the security it provides to beneficiaries, necessitating careful consideration based on marital status and financial needs.

Understanding the process of applying for plan benefits can be complex for many employees. What are the specific steps that Sonoco Products Company employees need to follow to apply for their pension benefits, and what resources are available to help streamline this process?

Process: Initiated via Sonoco Benefits Center, involving choosing a retirement date, understanding benefit options, and completing necessary paperwork. Resources: Detailed support through retirement specialists aids in navigating the process smoothly.

Many employees may not be aware of their rights under ERISA as participants in the Sonoco Pension Plan. What specific rights and protections do employees have, and how can they assert these rights if there are disputes or issues regarding their pension benefits at Sonoco Products Company?

Provides specific rights regarding plan information, appeal processes for denied claims, and protections against plan abuses. Asserting Rights: Outlines steps to take if there are disputes over pension benefits, including the right to sue after exhausting administrative remedies.

If a Sonoco Products Company employee experiences a significant life change, such as divorce or a domestic relations order, what procedures must they follow regarding their pension benefits, and how does Sonoco manage such situations under the guidelines laid out in the plan documentation?

Procedures: Employees must follow specific procedures for dividing pension benefits in the event of divorce, under a Qualified Domestic Relations Order (QDRO). Management: Sonoco’s Benefits Center provides guidance and necessary documentation to ensure compliance with legal requirements.

For employees looking to learn more about their retirement options and benefits at Sonoco Products Company, what contact information is available for them to reach out for assistance? How can employees utilize these resources effectively to gain a clearer understanding of their retirement planning?

Available through the Sonoco Benefits Center, offering comprehensive support for retirement planning and benefit queries, essential for effective retirement planning.