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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Southwest Gas Holdings Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Southwest Gas Holdings Southwest Gas Holdings provides healthcare benefits through a variety of insurers, primarily utilizing Aetna for their healthcare plans. This partnership enables employees to access a broad network of healthcare services. Expected Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As we approach 2026, healthcare costs are anticipated to soar, significantly impacting those affiliated with Southwest Gas Holdings. This expected surge stems from factors such as the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies for Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans, which could lead to a staggering increase of over 75% in out-of-pocket premiums for many enrollees. Moreover, aggressive rate hikes from major insurers, combined with rising medical costs, suggest that employees and retirees may face a challenging financial landscape in the coming year. Proactive management of health benefits and planning will be crucial for individuals navigating these increasing costs. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Southwest Gas Holdings employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Southwest Gas Holdings employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Southwest Gas Holdings employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Southwest Gas Holdings employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Southwest Gas Holdings preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Southwest Gas Holdings employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Southwest Gas Holdings with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan accommodate changes in benefits for employees who have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and what specific provisions have been implemented to ensure continuity of pension credit during such interruptions? Employees of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan are particularly encouraged to review how these provisions may impact their retirement plans and benefits, especially given the unprecedented circumstances of the pandemic.

The Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan accommodated changes due to COVID-19 by extending various deadlines for participants, such as the 12-month deadline to apply for pension credit for periods of disability, and other deadlines regarding claims and appeals. These extensions were applied from March 1, 2020, to a period of up to one year after the original deadline or 60 days after the end of the COVID-19 national emergency, ensuring continuity of pension credit during the pandemic interruptions(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

What enhancements to pension benefit calculations have been introduced for the years following January 1, 2021, under the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan, and how do these changes affect participants working more than 1,800 hours? This question emphasizes the implications of increased benefit accrual rates and the actual processes employees must follow to calculate their pensions effectively.

Enhancements to pension benefit calculations effective January 1, 2021, under the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan include an increase in the monthly benefit accrual rate for participants working 1,800 hours or more. The rate increased from $100 to $200, and for those working more than 1,800 hours, a maximum benefit accrual rate of $244.44 was introduced(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

In the context of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan, could you explain the eligibility criteria for receiving a Service Pension and how employees can accumulate the necessary Pension Credits more quickly? This consideration is vital for members who wish to understand the retirement options available to them and the strategies they might employ in their careers to maximize their benefits under the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan.

Employees of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan are eligible for a Service Pension after earning 30 years of Pension Credit. Additional Service Pension Eligibility Credit was introduced, allowing employees working over 1,800 hours annually to accumulate credits more quickly, up to a maximum of 2,200 hours(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

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Temporary disability benefits under the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan allow participants to accumulate Pension Credits during non-working periods if they are on short-term disability or receiving workers' compensation. Pension Credits can be granted for up to 1,200 hours annually, depending on the nature of the disability and employment history(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

What are the implications of the revised definitions under the Required Beginning Date as specified by the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan, particularly in compliance with the SECURE Act (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act)? Employees should understand how these legislative changes affect their retirement strategies, especially in light of penalties for failing to comply with mandatory commencement dates.

The Required Beginning Date for the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan was revised to comply with the SECURE Act. Participants born on or after July 1, 1949, must begin receiving benefits by April 1 of the calendar year following the year they turn 72. Failure to comply with this could result in a 50% excise tax(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

How can employees of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan navigate the process for applying for pension credit during periods of Temporary Disability, and what specific documentation is required? This inquiry encourages a deeper understanding of protocol surrounding disability applications and the associated benefits that participants are entitled to under the Plan.

Employees applying for pension credit during periods of Temporary Disability must submit a written application within one year of the onset of the disability, and provide documentation such as state-approved short-term disability certification or workers' compensation benefits(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

What are the implications of the retroactive increases to the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan benefits aimed at participants who accrued credit during the years 2011 to 2020, and how can affected employees determine their eligibility for said increases? Employees often seek clarification on how historical contributions can manifest in current benefits.

Retroactive increases to the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan benefits for the years 2011 to 2020 apply to participants who worked at least 1,000 hours in 2020 or under specific collective bargaining agreements. A 50% increase in benefit accrual rates was applied to these years, and eligible employees can determine their eligibility based on their hours worked(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

What role does the Southwest Carpenters Administrative Office play in assisting employees who have questions regarding modifiability in their pension plans, and what are the best methods for contacting them for assistance? This question highlights the importance of communication within the organization concerning employee inquiries and issue resolution.

The Southwest Carpenters Administrative Office assists employees with questions regarding modifications to their pension plans. Participants can contact them at (213) 386-8590 or (800) 293-1370 for personalized assistance(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

Can you detail the factors influencing the Benefit Accrual Rate for participants of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan for the calendar years after 2021, and how might employees calculate their expected pension benefits? Participants will want to understand the nuances of how their benefits are computed to make informed decisions regarding their retirement planning.

The Benefit Accrual Rate for participants of the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan after 2021 increased to $200 for 1,800 hours worked, with higher accrual rates for additional hours. Employees can calculate their benefits by multiplying their benefit accrual rate by the applicable benefit factor(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).

In the event of legal actions regarding benefits under ERISA against the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan, what venue restrictions apply, and what does this mean for participants seeking resolution in disputes? Employees need to be informed of the legal frameworks governing their benefits and understand their rights and the procedures that affect their claims within the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan.

Legal actions regarding benefits under ERISA against the Southwest Carpenters Pension Plan must be filed in Federal District Court in Los Angeles County, California. This venue restriction defines the jurisdiction where participants must file claims(Southwest Carpenters Pe…).