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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and TIAA Employees' Retirement

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for TIAA employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, TIAA employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on TIAA employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly TIAA employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at TIAA preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially TIAA employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at TIAA with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does TIAA-CREF's current approach to retirement benefits reflect the changing landscape of retiree health care support, and what implications does this have for employees planning for their retirement? How can TIAA-CREF employees leverage available resources to ensure that they are maximizing their retirement readiness?

TIAA-CREF is adapting to the evolving landscape of retiree health care by integrating defined contribution retirement and health care plans, thereby increasing benefits while maintaining cost control. This shift is crucial for employees planning for retirement as it allows for more predictable and sustainable benefits management. Employees should leverage TIAA-CREF’s educational resources, online tools, and direct consultation with wealth advisors to maximize their retirement readiness, ensuring they understand how to optimize their savings and benefits.

In what ways has the transition from traditional defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans impacted TIAA-CREF employees in terms of financial security during retirement? What strategies can employees employ to manage their defined contribution savings effectively to ensure they meet their retirement needs?

The transition from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans at TIAA-CREF has significant implications for financial security during retirement, potentially increasing the responsibility on employees to manage their retirement savings. Employees can enhance their financial security by taking advantage of TIAA-CREF's automatic enrollment, lifestyle funds, and matching contributions strategies. Additionally, they should consider utilizing financial planning services offered by TIAA-CREF to effectively manage and plan their retirement savings.

TIAA-CREF promotes a robust wellness program alongside its retirement benefits. How can the wellness initiatives offered by TIAA-CREF contribute to an employee's overall preparation for retirement? What measures should employees take to integrate wellness into their retirement planning?

TIAA-CREF’s wellness programs are integral to helping employees prepare for retirement by promoting physical and financial well-being. Engaging in these wellness initiatives can lead to reduced long-term health care costs and improve overall health, which is vital for a secure retirement. Employees should actively participate in these programs and integrate wellness into their retirement planning to ensure they remain healthy and financially prepared for their post-working years.

As employees approach retirement, understanding health care costs becomes essential. What resources does TIAA-CREF provide to help employees estimate their future health care expenses, and why is it crucial for employees to factor these costs into their retirement planning?

TIAA-CREF provides several resources to help employees estimate future health care expenses, which is essential for comprehensive retirement planning. Utilizing tools like health savings accounts and retirement health savings plans can aid employees in planning for these costs effectively. Understanding the specifics of Medicare and supplemental insurance options available through TIAA-CREF can also help employees make informed decisions about their health care in retirement.

Facing the challenges of an aging workforce and rising health care costs, how is TIAA-CREF adapting its retiree health care strategies to remain sustainable? What can current employees learn from these changes as they prepare for their future?

Facing an aging workforce and rising health care costs, TIAA-CREF is adapting its strategies by shifting towards health reimbursement arrangements (HRAs) and providing access to Medicare Advantage plans through private exchanges. These changes help sustain the financial viability of retiree health benefits. Employees should stay informed about these shifts and plan accordingly to utilize the evolving benefits effectively as they prepare for retirement.

The retirement health savings plan (RHSP) at TIAA-CREF offers unique benefits. How does this plan specifically support employees in managing their health care costs post-retirement, and what should employees consider when contributing to this plan while employed?

TIAA-CREF’s RHSP offers unique benefits by allowing employees to save for health care costs with tax advantages. Understanding and contributing to this plan during their employment can significantly aid employees in managing health care expenses post-retirement. Employees should consider maximizing their contributions to take full advantage of TIAA-CREF’s matching offerings and the tax-free growth of these assets.

TIAA-CREF has moved towards providing financial support for retirees through health reimbursement arrangements (HRAs) instead of traditional retiree health benefits. What should TIAA-CREF employees know about the HRA structure, and how can they plan to utilize these funds effectively to cover medical expenses in retirement?

TIAA-CREF’s move to provide financial support through HRAs instead of traditional health benefits requires employees to understand the structure and benefits of HRAs. Planning how to use these funds effectively, including covering medical expenses and insurance premiums in retirement, is crucial. Employees should educate themselves about the terms and optimal uses of their HRA to maximize its value for their retirement health care needs.

Considering recent changes in accounting standards like FAS 106, how has TIAA-CREF adjusted its benefits structure? How can employees understand the implications of these standards when it comes to their retiree benefits and overall financial planning?

With changes in accounting standards like FAS 106 affecting the reporting and funding of retiree benefits, TIAA-CREF has adjusted its benefits structure accordingly. Employees need to understand these changes and their implications on their retiree benefits to plan their finances and retiree benefits more effectively. Awareness of these accounting standards and proactive engagement with HR can help employees navigate these changes.

The rising costs of health care naturally impact retirement planning. How is TIAA-CREF preparing its employees to navigate these rising costs in their retirement? What proactive steps should employees take to mitigate health care costs during their retirement years?

TIAA-CREF is preparing employees for rising health care costs by providing tools and resources to estimate and manage these expenses effectively. Employees should proactively use these resources and consider increasing their health savings contributions to mitigate the impact of medical inflation on their retirement savings.

If TIAA-CREF employees have further questions or need detailed information regarding their retirement benefits, what is the best way to contact TIAA-CREF for assistance? What resources are available through TIAA-CREF's communication channels to ensure employees have comprehensive support during their retirement planning process?

For TIAA-CREF employees seeking further assistance or detailed information regarding their retirement benefits, contacting TIAA-CREF through their dedicated support channels, including customer service lines and online portals, is advisable. Utilizing workshops, webinars, and one-on-one advisement can also provide comprehensive support and guidance in navigating retirement planning effectively.