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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and UPS Employees' Retirement

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'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for UPS employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, UPS employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on UPS employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly UPS employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at UPS preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially UPS employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at UPS with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How can employees take full advantage of the retirement benefits offered by UPS, including the pension plan enhancements implemented in 2024, and what specific eligibility criteria must they meet to secure these benefits? In your experience, how have changes in the UPS pension plan over the years, especially the recent increases to service pension benefits, impacted the financial planning of UPS employees nearing retirement?

To fully take advantage of the UPS retirement benefits, including the pension plan enhancements implemented in 2024, employees must meet specific eligibility criteria, such as length of service and retirement age, which are outlined in the company's pension plan documents. Recent increases in service pension benefits, particularly for employees nearing retirement, have allowed UPS workers to better secure their financial future, giving them a more stable foundation as they transition out of the workforce. These changes have made financial planning more predictable for those close to retirement.

What are the steps that part-time employees at UPS need to follow to transition to full-time status, and how does this transition affect their eligibility for the UPS Pension Plan? Additionally, can you outline how the accrual of Credited Service works for both part-time and full-time UPS employees under the current plan rules?

Part-time employees at UPS must follow an established process to transition to full-time status, often based on seniority, availability, and performance reviews. Once they transition to full-time, their eligibility for the UPS Pension Plan improves, allowing for faster accrual of service credits. Accrual of Credited Service for part-time employees is typically prorated based on the hours worked, while full-time employees accumulate service credits more quickly, based on a 40-hour workweek under the current plan rules.

Considering the rise in healthcare costs, what healthcare options are available to UPS employees upon retirement, and how do the TeamCare plans differ between full-time and part-time retirees? How does the retiree medical coverage through TeamCare ensure that UPS employees maintain health insurance access without significant financial burden after retirement?

UPS offers comprehensive healthcare options through TeamCare for retirees, which vary for full-time and part-time employees. Full-time retirees generally receive more extensive coverage, while part-time retirees may have more limited options. TeamCare ensures that UPS retirees have access to affordable healthcare coverage post-retirement by providing plans designed to reduce the financial burden of rising healthcare costs, helping retirees maintain health insurance with manageable out-of-pocket expenses.

How does the UPS pension plan accommodate employees who have worked in multiple states or for different employers within the Teamsters system? What provisions are in place to ensure that their service credits are recognized and valued, particularly for those who may approach retirement age with a patchwork of employment history?

The UPS pension plan accommodates employees who have worked in multiple states or for different employers within the Teamsters system by recognizing their service credits across various jurisdictions. This ensures that even employees with patchwork employment histories can count their service toward pension eligibility, helping them qualify for retirement benefits despite moving between employers or locations within the Teamsters network.

What specific provisions exist for retirees at UPS who may choose to return to part-time employment post-retirement? Can you detail how this affects their pension benefits and any other retirement-related income they might receive, alongside UPS's policies regarding reemployment for retirees?

UPS retirees who choose to return to part-time work after retirement can do so under certain conditions without affecting their pension benefits. However, there may be limits on how much they can work without reducing their pension income. UPS’s policies on reemployment allow retirees to maintain some of their retirement-related income while taking on part-time roles, ensuring financial stability alongside continued employment.

How can employees at UPS navigate the process of filing a grievance if they feel their retirement benefits have not been administered fairly? What are the resources available to them, and how does the grievance procedure relate to the overall benefits they receive under the UPS pension and welfare plans?

If employees feel their retirement benefits have been unfairly administered, they can file a grievance through the UPS grievance procedure. This process often begins with discussions between the employee and management, with the option to escalate the issue to the union for formal dispute resolution. Resources such as union representatives and detailed plan documents are available to help employees navigate these disputes under the UPS pension and welfare plans.

With the introduction of new benefit contribution rates in 2024, how do these changes reflect UPS's commitment to its employees' financial futures? In what ways are employees encouraged to participate in decision-making regarding their benefits, and how might this shift impact employee satisfaction and retention rates at UPS?

The new benefit contribution rates introduced by UPS in 2024 reflect the company’s commitment to securing the financial futures of its employees. These changes encourage employees to be more engaged in the decision-making process regarding their benefits, which can lead to greater satisfaction and retention. UPS fosters this involvement by providing clear communication about how benefits are structured and how employees can contribute to their long-term financial health.

For employees looking to enhance their retirement savings beyond the UPS Pension Plan, what additional options are available, such as 401(k) or health savings accounts, and how do these integrate with the retirement benefits provided by UPS? Additionally, how can employees get the most out of these supplemental plans during their working years at UPS?

Beyond the UPS Pension Plan, employees have additional retirement savings options, such as 401(k) plans and health savings accounts (HSAs). These plans complement the pension benefits and allow employees to further enhance their retirement savings during their working years. UPS offers matching contributions for the 401(k), and employees are encouraged to maximize these plans to ensure robust retirement savings.

How does UPS support employees facing long-term disabilities in relation to their pension plans and health care coverage? Can you explain the interaction between long-term disability benefits and retirement benefits, particularly for employees who may leave the workforce earlier than anticipated due to health issues?

For employees facing long-term disabilities, UPS provides both long-term disability benefits and continued healthcare coverage, which are integrated with their pension plans. Employees who leave the workforce early due to health issues can rely on these benefits to maintain financial stability, as the long-term disability benefits help bridge the gap until they reach retirement age and are eligible for pension payments.

For employees seeking more information on their retirement benefits and options available through UPS, what channels are best for contacting the benefits department? Are there specific representatives dedicated to assisting employees with retirement questions to ensure they understand the nuances of their benefits effectively?

UPS employees seeking more information about their retirement benefits can contact the benefits department through designated channels, such as the employee portal or direct phone lines. UPS also provides representatives who specialize in retirement benefits, ensuring employees receive personalized guidance to understand the nuances of their pension plans and other retirement options effectively.

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.

UPS offers both a traditional defined benefit pension plan and a defined contribution 401(k) plan. The defined benefit plan includes a cash balance component, where benefits grow based on years of service and compensation, with interest credits added annually. The 401(k) plan offers company matching contributions and various investment options such as target-date funds and mutual funds. UPS also provides financial planning resources and tools to help employees manage their retirement savings.

UPS offers RSUs that vest over time, giving employees shares upon meeting vesting conditions. Stock options are also provided, allowing employees to purchase shares at a fixed price.