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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and U.S. Bancorp Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for U.S. Bancorp U.S. Bancorp, the parent company of U.S. Bank, primarily partners with UnitedHealthcare for its corporate health insurance offerings. This relationship allows U.S. Bancorp to provide a range of health benefits to its employees through UnitedHealthcare's extensive network and services. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 In 2026, U.S. Bancorp may face substantial healthcare cost increases, influenced predominantly by rising insurance premiums driven by multiple factors. Record hikes in premiums are anticipated as federal subsidies from the Affordable Care Act expire, which could result in over 22 million enrollees experiencing steep out-of-pocket expenses. With major insurers like UnitedHealthcare requesting rate increases upward of 66% in certain markets, U.S. Bancorp's healthcare costs could rise significantly, compelling both the company and its employees to navigate a more expensive healthcare landscape. This situation highlights the urgent need for strategic planning to mitigate the financial impact on employees and the company's overall benefits strategy. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for U.S. Bancorp employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, U.S. Bancorp employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on U.S. Bancorp employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly U.S. Bancorp employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at U.S. Bancorp preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially U.S. Bancorp employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at U.S. Bancorp with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

How does the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan calculate the Final Average Total Pay and Final Average Base Pay for employees, and what implications might these calculations have for retirement planning? What factors should employees at U.S. Bank consider when planning for their eventual retirement based on their pay history?

The U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan calculates Final Average Total Pay by taking the average of an employee's Total Pension Pay for the five consecutive calendar years during the last ten years of employment that provide the highest average. Similarly, Final Average Base Pay is calculated by averaging the Base Pension Pay for the same five-year period. Total Pension Pay includes base pay plus commissions, bonuses, and overtime, while Base Pension Pay only includes base salary and a few other components such as shift differentials and premium pay. These calculations significantly affect retirement planning, as higher pay during the last years of employment can lead to a more substantial pension benefit(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What steps does U.S. Bank require for employees who wish to commence their pension benefits, and how does the timing of this commencement affect the benefits they will ultimately receive? Employees at U.S. Bank should understand the critical timelines associated with the retirement process, including the importance of initiating their requests within specific timeframes.

Employees who wish to commence their pension benefits must initiate the process at least 30 to 90 days before their intended benefit commencement date. The timing affects the benefits, as early retirement (before age 65) results in reduced monthly benefits due to the extended period over which benefits are paid. Conversely, delaying the commencement of benefits until the full retirement age (65) or later ensures the maximum monthly pension benefit(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What are the different forms of payment options available under the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and how might these options change based on the employeeâ€™s age and years of service? U.S. Bank employees need clarity on how to choose the best payment option to meet their individual needs in retirement.

The Plan offers several payment options, including a single life annuity, joint and survivor annuities (50%, 75%, or 100%), and estate protection annuities. These options can vary based on the employee's age and years of service. For example, younger employees may have a reduced monthly benefit if they choose early retirement, while older employees nearing or beyond age 65 will receive full benefits without reduction. The employee's choice of annuity type also affects the monthly payout and survivor benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How does U.S. Bank ensure the security of employees' pension plan information and personal benefits data, and what measures should employees take to protect their information? Employees should be informed about the companyâ€™s security protocols and best practices for safeguarding sensitive information related to their pension.

U.S. Bank implements several security measures, including encouraging employees to use strong, unique passwords for accessing benefit information and enabling multifactor authentication. Employees should also regularly monitor their account for unauthorized transactions, update contact information to receive notices, and use secure networks when accessing their pension plan data(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

In the event that an employee at U.S. Bank undergoes reemployment after retirement, how does this impact their pension benefits and what should they be aware of regarding benefit accrual? Employees need guidance on how transitioning back to work could affect their pension plans and retirement strategies.

If a retired U.S. Bank employee is rehired, their pension payments continue as usual. However, they will not accrue any additional benefits under the Legacy Pension Plan but may be eligible for participation in the Legacy 2010 Cash Balance Portion of the Plan. It is essential for rehired employees to understand the implications on their pension accrual and benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What are the eligibility requirements for participation in the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and how do changes in employment status affect an employee's pension benefits? U.S. Bank staff should have a comprehensive understanding of eligibility criteria and how various employment changes can impact their pension rights.

Eligibility is limited to employees who had earned a benefit before January 1, 2020, or those rehired in an eligible position. Employment status changes, such as termination or reemployment, can affect whether an employee remains in the Plan. For example, employees rehired after January 1, 2020, may not accrue additional benefits under the Legacy Pension Plan(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What specific rights do U.S. Bank employees have under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) in relation to their pension plan benefits, and how can they enforce these rights? U.S. Bank employees must be made aware of their legal rights to access plan information and contest any disputes regarding their benefits.

Employees have rights under ERISA to access plan information, file claims, and appeal denied claims. U.S. Bank employees can enforce these rights by submitting claims or appealing denials through the Plan's claims and appeals procedures. Additionally, employees may bring legal action if they exhaust the Plan's internal processes(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How does U.S. Bancorp ensure that its pension plan complies with current IRS limits, and what should employees know about potential tax implications on their pension benefits? Clear communication from U.S. Bank regarding tax consequences and IRS guidelines for retirement benefits is crucial for employees to manage their finances effectively post-retirement.

The Plan adheres to IRS regulations, including limits on annual earnings ($330,000 in 2023) that can be considered for pension benefit calculations. Employees should understand the potential tax implications on their pension distributions and are encouraged to consult tax advisors to ensure proper tax handling(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

What processes are in place for U.S. Bank employees to file claims or appeals if they believe they are entitled to additional benefits under the pension plan? Employees at U.S. Bank should be informed about the claims process and know their options for seeking justice if their claims are disputed.

Employees can file claims or appeals by contacting U.S. Bank Employee Services or accessing the Plan’s claims procedures. Deadlines apply, and employees must submit claims within the specified time limits to avoid losing their rights to additional benefits(US Bancorp_January 2023…).

How can U.S. Bank employees contact the company for further assistance regarding the U.S. Bank Legacy Pension Plan, and what resources are available to them through the Employee Services division? Itâ€™s essential that U.S. Bank staff knows how to reach out for support regarding their retirement benefits and understands the services provided to help them navigate their pension plans.

Employees can contact U.S. Bank Employee Services by calling 800-806-7009 and selecting "Savings and retirement." Additionally, the Your Total Rewards website provides 24/7 access to pension information and support. Employees are encouraged to use these resources for assistance with their pension plan(US Bancorp_January 2023…).