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Why an Aging Workforce and Demographic Shifts Could Impact Stock Markets—and Weyerhaeuser Employees' Retirement

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Weyerhaeuser Weyerhaeuser's healthcare benefit plans are typically managed through a variety of providers, widely depending on the location and specific employee benefits outlined in their policy documentation. Generally, major national insurers such as UnitedHealthcare, Anthem, and Aetna are among those that may provide coverage options for employees. Health Care Cost Increases in 2026 As 2026 approaches, Weyerhaeuser employees could face significant increases in healthcare costs, driven largely by anticipated steep hikes in Affordable Care Act (ACA) premiums. With some states forecasting premium increases exceeding 60%, and without the renewal of federal premium subsidies, over 22 million individuals may see their out-of-pocket expenses surge by up to 75%. Additionally, rising medical costs-fueled by hospital, physician, and medication price inflation-could contribute to an overall healthcare cost rise of 8.5% for employers, prompting shifts in cost-sharing dynamics between employers and employees. As these challenges unfold, navigating healthcare options strategically will be essential for managing individual financial impacts. Click here to learn more

'Understanding demographic trends, like the Middle-Old ratio, can offer invaluable insight for Weyerhaeuser employees planning for retirement, as it highlights the potential for slower stock market growth in the future and suggests strategic adjustments to portfolios to align with shifting global economic conditions.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'By recognizing the impact of demographic shifts, such as the Middle-Old ratio, Weyerhaeuser employees can better position their retirement portfolios to navigate upcoming market changes and demographic-driven economic shifts, helping their retirement planning to remain resilient in the face of long-term trends.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article, we will discuss:

The impact of demographic shifts, particularly the Middle-Old ratio, on stock market trends and retirement planning.
How population changes influence market cycles and economic growth, with a focus on Weyerhaeuser employees.
Strategies for adjusting retirement portfolios based on demographic forecasts, including exposure to emerging markets.

The long-term outlook for stock markets and retirement planning is being affected by the demographic changes happening in the United States and other industrialized nations. The 'Middle-Old ratio' (M/O ratio), which analyzes the ratio of middle-aged to elderly individuals, is a key factor that investors, particularly Weyerhaeuser employees, should consider when planning for the future. For those preparing their retirement plans over the next decade or more, this ratio offers a unique approach to forecasting long-term stock market trends.

The Effect of the M/O Ratio on Stock Markets

The M/O ratio is determined by dividing the number of individuals aged 40 to 49 by the number of people aged 60 to 69. This metric has shown a strong correlation with long-term stock market cycles, especially in the S&P 500. Research conducted by Alejandra Grindal, chief economist at Ned Davis Research, has revealed that shifts in the M/O ratio often coincide with significant highs and lows in the stock market. ¹

For example, in 2000, when the internet bubble burst and the 1990s bull market reached its peak, the M/O ratio reached its highest point. This marked the end of an era of rapid economic growth and stock market gains. Following this peak, the ratio began to decline, mirroring the 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent bear market. Since the middle of the 2010s, the M/O ratio has been rising, indicating that a shift may be on the horizon within the next decade.

It is essential to note that while the M/O ratio may act as an indicator for long-term market trends, it is not useful for forecasting short-term market movements. For instance, it did not signal the steep market declines in 2022. Nevertheless, it remains a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of the stock market.

The Influence of Demographics on Stock Market Cycles

John Geanakoplos, a professor at Yale University, has made significant contributions to understanding the relationship between financial markets and demographics. His 2002 study highlighted that many of the boom-and-bust cycles in the stock market since World War II can be attributed to shifts in population composition, particularly the proportion of middle-aged versus elderly individuals. ² Geanakoplos explained that stock markets tend to rise when a significant portion of the population is in their prime working years and decline when a larger share of the population is elderly and no longer contributing to the economy.

This demographic shift is driven by the relative sizes of different age groups, not just the overall population. While some may focus on population growth when forecasting economic outcomes, it is the relative sizes of the middle-aged and senior cohorts that most significantly impact stock market performance.

It is expected that the M/O ratio will continue to rise into the 2030s. However, it will begin to decline again around the mid-2030s, which may signal a slowdown in stock market growth. This long-term pattern suggests that investors, particularly those at Weyerhaeuser preparing for retirement, should be ready for potentially weaker equity returns starting in the early 2030s.

Taking Demographic Trends into Account When Managing Your Retirement Portfolio

Anyone preparing for retirement, especially Weyerhaeuser employees with a long investment horizon, should understand how demographic shifts influence stock markets. This information can help you adjust your portfolio to align with anticipated market conditions, particularly if you are more than ten years away from retirement. As the M/O ratio seems to be peaking, it may be time to consider reducing exposure to U.S. stocks and reallocating to other regions, such as emerging markets.

For those nearing retirement, traditional strategies like those in target-date funds often recommend gradually decreasing equity exposure. For example, Vanguard’s target-date funds suggest a 30% allocation to U.S. stocks by the time an investor turns 65. However, due to demographic trends, a more cautious approach may be needed, especially for those in their 60s who wish to limit exposure to U.S. stocks.

Investors should also reevaluate the international component of their portfolios. While Vanguard's glide path recommends a 20% allocation to non-U.S. stocks, this may need to be adjusted based on the demographic outlook of specific countries. Over the next 25 years, developed nations outside the U.S. will also experience a decline in their M/O ratios, but not as sharply as in the U.S.

In the coming decades, emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to see higher M/O ratios. As a greater portion of their populations enters middle age, these regions could experience economic expansion and market growth. To capitalize on these trends, it might make sense to increase your exposure to emerging markets, especially if you are nearing or already in retirement.

Conclusion: Preparing for Population Shifts and Stock Market Changes

Demographic trends, as illustrated by the M/O ratio, may influence stock markets and retirement planning. These trends indicate that starting in the early 2030s, investors, particularly those at Weyerhaeuser with long-term horizons, may want to prepare for a period of potentially slower equity growth. As the middle-aged population reaches its peak, the stock market dynamics may shift, potentially leading to reduced returns in developed nations, including the United States.

To account for these anticipated demographic changes, it may be helpful to consider lowering your exposure to U.S. stocks and increasing your investment in emerging markets, where demographic trends appear more favorable. By adjusting your portfolio to reflect these long-term patterns, you can potentially position for a future with slower market growth and shifting global economic conditions. For a more sustainable retirement, begin planning now.

As the elderly population grows, the global workforce is shrinking, which could slow economic growth. A 2023 World Economic Forum report states that aging populations are contributing to a decline in the global workforce, potentially dampening economic productivity. This trend may lead to slower stock market returns and increased inflation, especially in developed countries where the aging population is advancing more rapidly.

Retirement planning must evolve as demographic changes and stock market patterns change. Understanding the M/O ratio and its implications could help you adjust your retirement portfolio, especially when considering opportunities in emerging markets. By aligning your investments with these demographic shifts, you can better prepare for a future where market growth may slow, supporting a more sustainable retirement.

Think of the stock market as a vehicle traveling along a winding road. For years, the car has been running smoothly, driven by a powerful engine (the large working-age population). But now, the engine is aging, and the fuel (economic growth and productivity) is running low. The aging population is like the car approaching a steep incline. Investors must adjust their speed, refuel with more strategic investments, and be ready for a slower journey into retirement.

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Sources:

1. Grindal, Alejandra. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' Morningstar , 2 June 2025.

2. Geanakoplos, John, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii. 'Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market.' Brookings Institution , Jan. 2004, pp. 245–311.

3. Roberts, Stan. 'Why America's Aging Population Will Be a Problem for Stocks and Your Retirement.' MarketWatch , 2 June 2025.

4. VanEck Research Team. 'Emerging Markets: Policy Uncertainty Tempers a Strong Start to 2025.' VanEck , May 2025.

5. BlackRock. 'Five Forces Shaping Retirement.' BlackRock , Feb. 2025.

What are the specific eligibility criteria for employees to participate in the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan, and how do these criteria differ among salaried, non-union hourly, and union hourly employees? Understanding the nuanced eligibility requirements for the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan is vital for employees considering their future retirement options. These guidelines not only determine who can partake in the plan but also influence the pension benefits they may accrue. Additionally, it would be beneficial to explore how changes in employment statusâ€”such as termination or reduction of hoursâ€”impact continuous eligibility in the plan.

Eligibility Criteria: Participation in the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan depends on several factors, including whether an employee is salaried, non-union hourly, or union hourly. Salaried and non-union hourly employees accrue service until their employment ends, whereas union hourly employees' participation depends on collective bargaining agreements, with specific plan closure dates applicable at certain locations(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).

Can you explain the process for calculating retirement benefits under the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan, and what factors might affect final benefit amounts? This question delves into the critical components utilized in determining the retirement benefits for employees at Weyerhaeuser Company. Various elements such as length of service, salary history, and any contribution caps set by the IRS can significantly shape what an employee ultimately receives. Itâ€™s essential for employees to grasp how these factors interplay and what they can do to optimize their benefits as they approach retirement.

Retirement Benefit Calculation: Retirement benefits under the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan are determined by a combination of vesting service and credited service. Vesting service establishes eligibility for benefits, while credited service calculates the benefit amount. Other factors, such as salary history, age at retirement, and IRS contribution limits, also affect the final benefit(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).

What are the available options for beneficiaries under the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan, and what specific documentation is necessary for designating a beneficiary? Naming a beneficiary is a crucial aspect of financial planning within the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan. Employees must understand the rules surrounding beneficiary designations, especially in scenarios involving spouses and children. Furthermore, it is essential to explore the implications of these designations on peace of mind and financial security for the employeeâ€™s family.

Beneficiary Designation: Employees are required to designate a beneficiary for the pension plan, especially if they are married. If married, the spouse must be the primary beneficiary unless written consent is provided. Employees can name contingent beneficiaries if their spouse predeceases them, and these designations must be submitted on approved forms(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).

In what ways can employees initiate the claims process if they believe there has been an error in their pension benefit calculations at Weyerhaeuser Company? This process encompasses several steps, starting with how to formally lodge a complaint about potential discrepancies in pension calculations. Clear communication channels within Weyerhaeuser's administrative structure must be succinctly outlined for employees. Additionally, understanding the implications of unresolved claims on their financial future adds depth to this inquiry.

Claims Process: If an employee believes there has been an error in their pension benefit calculation, they can file a claim in writing with the Weyerhaeuser Pension Service Center. The employee will receive a written decision within 90 days, with an additional 90-day extension if needed. If the claim is denied, the employee can appeal the decision(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).

What kind of healthcare benefits is available to retirees from Weyerhaeuser Company, and how do these benefits interplay with the pensions under the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan? Examining the intersection of pension benefits with retiree healthcare provisions can reveal critical information for employees planning their post-retirement lives. Employees should understand what healthcare coverage entails and how it could affect their overall financial wellbeing once they transition into retirement.

How does Weyerhaeuser Company ensure compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) with respect to the administration of the Pension Plan? ERISA sets forth numerous regulations that govern employee benefits plans, and understanding how Weyerhaeuser adheres to these guidelines is important for employees. This inquiry should focus on specific practices that ensure transparency, equity, and protection for employees' pension rights under this federal law.

ERISA Compliance: Weyerhaeuser ensures compliance with ERISA by providing employees with the necessary documents, including summary plan descriptions and annual reports. ERISA also grants employees the right to obtain information about their benefits, including the Plan's funding status and eligibility requirements(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).

What potential risks should employees be aware of when considering the termination of the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan, and what recourse do they have if this occurs? Understanding the risks associated with plan termination, including the financial impact on retirement savings, is crucial for employees. Furthermore, Weyerhaeuser's obligations in such a scenario and the options available to employeesâ€”whether itâ€™s transitioning to another plan or taking a lump-sum payoutâ€”should be addressed.

Plan Termination Risks: Employees should be aware that if Weyerhaeuser terminates the pension plan, their benefits may still be insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). However, some benefits, such as recent increases or non-vested benefits, may not be fully covered by PBGC(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).

What resources does Weyerhaeuser Company provide for employees to calculate their estimated benefits before retirement, and how can these estimates assist in retirement planning? Tools and resources offered by Weyerhaeuser to facilitate personal benefit calculations play a pivotal role in financial planning. Employees should know where to access these tools, which can provide insights into potential retirement income and underscore the importance of proactive planning.

Resources for Estimating Benefits: Weyerhaeuser provides tools and resources, such as benefit estimate calculators, through the Weyerhaeuser Pension Service Center. Employees are encouraged to use these tools to help with retirement planning, including understanding potential income and preparing for retirement(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).

How can Weyerhaeuser employees effectively contact the Pension Service Center for detailed inquiries regarding their pension benefits or the claims process? Efficient communication with the Pension Service Center is vital for employees seeking clarification about their benefits. Detailing the various methods availableâ€”such as phone, mail, or onlineâ€”will ensure that employees can swiftly address their questions and concerns regarding the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan.

Contacting the Pension Service Center: Employees can contact the Weyerhaeuser Pension Service Center via phone at 866-288-2510 or online through the company's benefits portal. The service center provides assistance with benefit calculations, claims, and general inquiries about the pension plan(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).

What changes to the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan should employees be aware of that might affect their benefits or participation in the plan, and how are these communicated to employees? Awareness of any amendments to the pension plan is essential for employees to understand how their benefits may be influenced. Weyerhaeuser's approach to communicating these changes, whether through direct correspondence or public announcements, is key to ensuring that employees stay informed and can adapt their retirement planning accordingly.

Plan Changes: Employees will be notified of any material changes to the Weyerhaeuser Pension Plan through Summary of Material Modifications (SMM) documents. It is essential for employees to stay informed of these updates, as they can impact pension benefits and participation(Weyerhaeuser Company_Ef…).