Value Series II: FedEx Employees Can Use the P/CF Ratio to Find Value

For FedEx employees building a Retirement strategy, focusing on undervalued stocks with a high Price-to-Cash Flow ratio can be a useful tool to improve portfolio performance and plan for the future, 'says [Advisor Name], a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement Group.

'As market volatility continues to mount, FedEx employees should look for investment strategies that reward cash flow more than traditional earnings to help them achieve their long-term Retirement goals,' says [Advisor Name], a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement Group.

In this article we will discuss:

1. Importance of Price-to-Cash Flow ratio in the evaluation of investment opportunities.

2. Long-term returns how value investing outperformed glamour investing.

3. Role of Price to Cash Flow ratio in retirement planning for FedEx employees & retirees.

Given current market volatility, we think now is a good time to revisit important value metrics with FedEx employees and retirees in our four-part series. Part two of this four part value series will examine the Price-to-Cash Flow ratio. But sometimes investors want to beat the market. Those investors should consider the following proven strategy that some great investors have used.

Value investors learned how to beat the average annualized returns of the S&P 500 decades ago - and many have decades of track record to prove it. The most famous value investor is obviously Warren Buffett, but so are Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Charlie Munger, Christopher Browne and Seth Klarman. This style invests in four metrics that define a value investment. These are the Price-to-Earnings Ratio, Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio, High Dividend Yield and Price-to-Book Ratio. These metrics are strong indicators of undervalued security, as you will see. These cheap FedEx securities regularly beat the market. How they affect investing depends on some characteristics and how their investment returns are correlated.

Today we examine the Price-to-Cash Flow ratio (P/CF) as a tool for planning for the retirements of FedEx employees. Many feel that using cash flow rather than accounting earnings paints a more complete picture of a company's business performance that may help with investment decisions and investment performance. We understand researched solutions are important to FedEx employees. Below are the results of two Fama and French [1] backtests of cash flow yield (the inverse of P/CF ratio) data from 1951 to 2013. As of December 2013, the sample had 2,526 firms (Carlisle-PCF, P2). The value decile had the 269 stocks with the highest cash flow yield and the glamour decile had the 311 with the lowest cash flow yield. The glamour stocks average USD 4.74 billion in size and stocks are worth USD 4.80 billion. (The average is skewed by the largest companies. In context, the smallest company is worth USD 272 million today (much smaller than average but still investable for most investors).

Stocks having negative cash flow were excluded. Portfolios are formed June 30 and rebalanced annually. In this backtest, the two portfolios are weighted by market capitalization, so bigger firms drive the portfolio performance more and smaller firms less. Here the value decile has returned 16.7 percent compound (18.6 percent in the average year) versus 9.3 percent for the glamour decile (11.5 percent in the average year) (Carlisle-PCF, P3) This is because the value portfolios generated more cash flow per dollar invested compared to the glamour decile. 27.2 percent versus 4.3 percent for the glamour portfolio (Carlisle-PCF, P5). I used a rolling average. The 'average' I've quoted is for the full period. The rolling average is higher but never lower. The rolling average is the annualized mean return for each year-long period (sometimes called a 5-year rolling return) As we noted above, value's outperformance over glamour is not a historical anomaly.

Taking just the period from 1999 we see that even though the return is lower than the long-term average, value has remained the better bet. Since 1999, value outperformed glamour 8.7 percent compounded and 6.2 percent in the average year (Carlisle-PCF, P7) Possibly the popularity of simple value strategies has contributed to lower returns recently. I think it's because the market is still working off the massive overvaluation of the late 1990s Dot Com boom. We think a value-based strategy is best for FedEx employees and retirees Market capitalization-weighted returns can be used to show that the outperformance of value over glamour is not due to value portfolios with smaller stocks. They mean absolutely nothing unless you're running an index or hugging an index. It is easiest to just weight all positions equally in a portfolio. (If we are prepared to take a little more volatility in exchange for a little extra return, we can also Kelly weight [2] our best ideas). Kelly Weighting is based on the Kelly Criterion - a formula for determining what percentage of capital should be invested in each trade to achieve maximum long-term growth.

There are two parts to the formula (Kelly% = W-[(1 - W)/R]: the winning probability factor W and the win/loss ratio R. It is a winning probability that the probability trade will result in a positive return. The win/loss ratio is the sum of the positive trade amounts minus the negative trading amounts. Its result will tell investors what percentage of their total capital they should invest in each investment. Equal weight return statistics for cash flow yield are given below. The value returned 20.7 percent compounded (23.8 percent on average) against glamour's 9.3 percent compounded return (12.5% on average) in the equal weight backtests (Carlisle-PCF, P9).

And you might notice that there is a tiny advantage for the cash flow yield's value decile over the earnings yield's value decile: 20.7 percent to 20.1 percent. We'll examine the impact of that small cash flow win in coming weeks. Again the value portfolios generate more cash flow than the glamour portfolios - 24.6 percent versus 4.1 percent in the glamour portfolios. We saw last week that the average cash flow yield of the equally weighted value portfolio is a bit lower than that of the market capitalization-weighted portfolios.

This means that over the whole period, bigger stocks were generally cheaper than smaller stocks to buy cash flow. Not always, of course, but it is interesting nonetheless. In equal-weight portfolios, value has beaten glamour since 1999 by 11.1 percent compounded and 10.0 percent in the average year. Since the value portfolios generate more cash flow than the glamour portfolios (on average 24.6 percent versus 4.1 percent in the glamour portfolios) we value research just as much as FedEx employees and retirees do (Carlisle-PCF, P10). We saw last week that the average cash flow yield of the equally weighted value portfolio is a bit lower than that of the market capitalization-weighted portfolios.

This means that over the whole period, bigger stocks were generally cheaper than smaller stocks to buy cash flow. Not always, of course, but it is interesting nonetheless. In the equal-weight portfolios, value has outperformed glamour Since 1999 by 11.1 percent compounded and 10.0 percent in the average year (Another study analyzing the P/CF metric is listed below. Brandes study In a Brandes Research Institute Study, exhibit 6 shows global all-cap results across three price metrics. They confirmed a consistent premium across all metrics. Focus is on P/CF ratio and outperformance in decile 10 value stocks. The smallest outperformance between decile 1 glamour stocks and decile 10 value stocks is seen in P/B measurement, where the average outperformance was 7.1% (Brandes, p. 8) In the same Brandes study they tracked Price-to-Cash Flow in the U.S., Non-U.S. and Emerging Markets. In rolling 5 year annualized returns of price-to-cash flow deciles for 1980-2014, the lower price-to-cash flow deciles outperform the higher Price - to-Cash flow deciles.

Results are shown on the graph 'Appendix C: Figure 4' Using P/CF Deciles Findings by Regions. ' Even though all of the lowest Price-to-Cash Flow deciles outperform the high Price-to-Cash Flow deciles, the biggest premiums occur outside of the United States. Actually, the biggest premium is found in emerging markets where companies that generate more cash are better positioned to weather market downturns. This highlights how useful P / CF ratio analysis can be in planning for FedEx employees' and retirees' retirements Currently the average Price-to-Cash Flow (P / CF) for the stocks in the S&P 500 is 13.9.

But like the P/E ratio, any value below 15 to 20 is generally good. A study from Zach's confirms this. According to their testing, a P/CF of 0-10 delivered the best result (17.1% in 10 years). The second best was 10-20, up 10.2%. But at + 30, the odds are stacked against a loss (-2.8%). And over 40, the odds are even greater - -6.9%. You can see that low-price-to-cash-flow stocks outperform high-price-to-cash-flow stocks The Retirement group is a national group of financial advisors. We only plan for and design retirement portfolios for transitioning corporate employees.

And each representative of The Group has been hand picked by the Retirement Group in select cities throughout The United States. Each advisor was screened for pension expertise, financial planning experience and portfolio construction knowledge. TRG believes in teamwork to find solutions to our clients' problems. A conservative investment philosophy guides the team in constructing client portfolios with laddered bonds / CDs / mutual funds / ETFs / Annuities / Stocks and other investments. They handle Retirement / Pensions / Tax / Asset Allocation / Estate / Elder Care issues. This document uses different research tools and techniques. All attempts to estimate future results involve assumptions and judgments and are therefore only tentative estimates.

The law, investment climate, interest rates and personal circumstances will all change and will affect how accurate our estimations are and how appropriate our recommendations are. Such a plan requires ongoing change sensitivities as well as constant re-examination and alteration of the plan. So update your plan a few months before your expected retirement date and do an annual review. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an attempt by the Retirement Group, LLC or any of its employees to practice law or accounting. We look forward to speaking with any tax and/or legal professionals you may select regarding the implications of our recommendations. Through your retirement years we will continue to update you on issues affecting your retirement via our complimentary and proprietary newsletters, workshops and periodic updates. Or call us at (800) 900-5867.

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Sources:

1. 'Layoffs and Job Cuts News - 2024.' The Layoff , 2024, www.thelayoff.com

2. .'Cognizant Technology Solutions Restructuring and Layoff Updates. ' The Layoff , 2024, www.thelayoff.com .

3. 'Cognizant Technology Solutions Pension Plan and 401(k) Details. ' Investopedia , 2024, www.investopedia.com .

4. 'Stock Options and RSU Details for Cognizant Technology Solutions. 5. ' Forbes , 2024, www.forbes.com .

5. 'Cognizant Technology Solutions Employee Stock Options and RSU Guide.' Business Insider , 2024, www.businessinsider.com .

What are the implications of the Funding Target Attainment Percentage for FedEx Corporation employees, and how does it impact the security of the pension benefits offered by FedEx Corporation? This question seeks to explore the nuances of the funding target attainment percentage as reported in the annual funding notice, examining how this metric not only reflects the financial health of FedEx Corporation's pension plan but also how it affects employee confidence in future benefit payments and retirement planning.

Funding Target Attainment Percentage: The Funding Target Attainment Percentage for FedEx Corporation indicates the degree to which the pension plan is funded. A percentage of 101.33% for 2022 suggests that the plan has sufficient assets to cover its liabilities, providing security for employees' pension benefits. This high percentage likely increases employee confidence in the stability and reliability of their future pension payouts, essential for long-term retirement planning.

How does the merger of the FedEx Freight Pension Plan into the FedEx Corporate Employeesâ€™ Pension Plan influence the benefits currently available to FedEx Corporation employees? This question aims to delve into the practical changes that may arise due to this merger, assessing whether it aligns with employee expectations regarding their pension benefits and how the transition process is managed by FedEx Corporation.

Merger of Pension Plans: The merger of the FedEx Freight Pension Plan into the FedEx Corporate Employees’ Pension Plan appears to have been strategically managed to maintain benefit stability. Despite increasing liabilities by 5.3%, the merger was structured to ensure no negative impact on the benefit amounts payable to participants from either plan, preserving the expected pension benefits for all affected FedEx Corporation employees.

In terms of investment strategies, what measures does FedEx Corporation implement to ensure that its pension plan investments align with the long-term liabilities expected to be paid out to retirees? This question encourages an exploration of the investment policies in place, examining the asset allocations and risk management strategies that FedEx Corporation employs to ensure sustainable funding for its pension obligations, which could potentially include detailed analyses of stocks, debts, and alternative investments.

Investment Strategies: FedEx Corporation employs a diversified investment strategy across equities, fixed income, and alternative investments, aiming to meet long-term pension liabilities. This approach, which includes both active management strategies and the limited use of derivatives, is designed to generate returns that exceed market indices, thus ensuring adequate funding of pension obligations.

What options do employees of FedEx Corporation have for accessing their pension plan statements, and how frequently are these statements generated? The focus here is to understand the communication strategies employed by FedEx Corporation regarding pension benefit statements, including technological access points and the importance of these documents for employee financial planning.

Pension Plan Statements: FedEx Corporation provides annual pension plan statements through their Retirement Service Center, available electronically each fall. Employees can access their statements online or request them if notifications are not received, ensuring transparency and aiding in personal financial planning.

How are contributions to the FedEx Corporation Employeesâ€™ Pension Plan determined, and what role do excess contributions play in the plan's overall funding strategy? This question aims to educate employees about how the company balances mandatory contribution levels with potential excess contributions, exploring how these factors interact to influence the plan's solvency and employee benefits.

Contributions to the Pension Plan: Contributions to the FedEx Corporation Employees' Pension Plan are calculated to meet at least the minimum legal requirement and potentially include voluntary excess contributions. These excess contributions can help manage the plan's funding level and ensure its solvency, benefiting overall pension security for employees.

What types of benefits are guaranteed under the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) for FedEx Corporation employees, and what limitations exist that employees should be aware of? By focusing on the guaranteed benefits, this question prompts a discussion on the security of specific benefits provided by FedEx Corporation and highlights limitations, allowing employees to understand their rights fully.

PBGC Guarantee: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation guarantees certain types of benefits for FedEx Corporation employees, such as pension benefits at normal retirement age and most early retirement benefits. However, there are limitations, such as exclusions for benefits without vested rights and recently increased benefits, which employees should be aware of to fully understand their pension security.

In what ways does the FedEx Corporation plan to adjust its pension funding strategy in light of changing federal laws that impact pension obligations? Employees are encouraged to consider how legislative changes influence corporate policies surrounding retirement benefits and the proactive strategies FedEx Corporation might take to remain compliant while ensuring the security of employee pensions.

Adjustments to Funding Strategy: FedEx Corporation is likely to adjust its pension funding strategy in response to legislative changes affecting pension obligations, such as those introduced by recent acts adjusting how pension liabilities are calculated. This proactive approach aims to ensure compliance with new laws while continuing to secure the financial health of the pension plan.

What are the steps that FedEx Corporation employees must take if they are considering retirement, particularly in how to navigate the pension plan and gain access to their benefits? This question aims to provide clarity on the retirement process, ensuring that employees are equipped with the necessary information regarding required documentation, timelines, and points of contact within FedEx Corporation.

Steps for Retirement Planning: Employees considering retirement should contact the FedEx Retirement Service Center to navigate their pension plan benefits. This process involves understanding necessary documentation, timelines, and available support, facilitating a smooth transition into retirement.

How does FedEx Corporation plan to manage potential funding shortfalls in the pension plan, and what mechanisms are in place for notifying plan participants should such an event occur? Employees would need to understand the proactive measures put in place by FedEx Corporation to address funding-related challenges while also knowing what this means for their benefits.

Managing Funding Shortfalls: In the event of potential funding shortfalls, FedEx Corporation has policies in place to manage such situations, including strategic contributions to mitigate shortfalls. The company maintains transparency with plan participants about funding levels and any significant changes affecting the pension plan.

For those seeking more information about their pensions and retirement options, how can FedEx Corporation employees contact relevant departments, and what resources are available for assistance? This question provides an opportunity for employees to familiarize themselves with contact points such as the FedEx Retirement Service Center, emphasizing the importance of open communication channels for addressing inquiries related to their pensions. Feel free to consult the provided document for more in-depth exploration of these topics.

Contacting for Pension Information: FedEx Corporation employees seeking more information about their pensions or retirement options can contact the FedEx Retirement Service Center. This center provides essential resources and support, ensuring employees have access to all necessary information regarding their retirement planning.

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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for FedEx at 942 south shady grove rd Memphis, TN 38120; or by calling them at 901-818-7500.