Ernst & Young Economic Outlook: Are You Better Off Than in 2020?

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As the 2024 election approaches, Ernst & Young employees are keenly observing how economic issues dominate the political stage. Polls reveal a divide among voters over which presidential candidate is best suited to manage the economy, with many considering former President Donald Trump to be more competent than Vice President Kamala Harris. This sentiment is largely shaped by how economic discussions are framed, highlighting the complexities of these issues and the challenges Democrats face in effectively communicating their economic achievements. [ source ]

The campaign messages from Trump's team starkly contrast this complexity by highlighting straightforward economic indicators such as gas prices and credit rates. They directly ask voters: 'In November 2020, gas was $1.80 per gallon, and mortgage rates were at 2.5%. Do you feel better off now than four years ago?' This question, while simple, overlooks the broader economic context and the fundamental principles governing these figures.

To understand the state of the economy in November 2020, it's crucial for Ernst & Young employees to revisit the circumstances of that time. The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound effect, causing widespread illness, business closures, and event cancellations from March of that year. The lockdowns led to deserted roads and reduced traffic, paving the way for a significant drop in fuel demand. The shift in consumer behavior highlights the first economic principle at play: supply and demand.

Economic Principle #1: Supply and Demand

The law of supply and demand has a fundamental impact on gas prices and credit rates. During the pandemic, the sudden drop in fuel demand, caused by millions working from home and halting commutes, led to a surplus of fuel and, consequently, lower fuel prices. Real estate also reached historic lows with reduced economic activity and hesitant buyers, reluctant to venture out during a global health crisis. For instance, a gallon of fuel cost $2.69 and mortgage rates were about 3.66% in November 2019. By the end of November 2020, these figures had dropped to $1.80 per gallon and 2.5% for mortgages, representing a significant decrease in demand. [ source ] [ source ]

When the economy was struggling, fears of a recession turning into a depression grew. Due to increased unemployment rates, companies nearing bankruptcy, and consumers' difficulties in acquiring essential products, the federal government took stimulative actions. They aimed to stabilize the economy by sending checks to taxpayers and supporting businesses, non-governmental organizations, and local authorities. [ source ]

Economic Principle #2: Inflation and Exceeding Demand

With the economy gradually recovering and spending resuming, a new challenge arose when demand began to exceed supply. This imbalance is at the heart of the second economic principle: when demand exceeds supply, prices rise, leading to inflation. Supply chains were heavily disrupted by the pandemic, resulting in factory shutdowns and staff shortages. As consumer demand increased post-pandemic, businesses faced difficulties in meeting rising orders, leading to empty shelves, showcasing the ongoing challenges of supply chain management.

In 2022, U.S. inflation rates reached their highest in decades, peaking at 9.1% in June. This spike in inflation drew criticism towards the economic policies of former President Biden, although it's important to note that inflation began to decline the following month, moving closer to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. It's crucial to correct any misperceptions about Biden being the leader of the highest inflation in U.S. history; while the inflation rates during the pandemic were significant, they did not reach the historical highs of post-World War II or the 1970s. [ source ]

Assessing Economic Well-being

The question of whether Ernst & Young employees are better off now than in November 2020 requires detailed analysis. While gas prices and mortgage rates are tangible indicators, they do not fully reflect the economic landscape. In 2020, the U.S. faced an unprecedented crisis, leading to artificially low prices caused by reduced demand.

The resilience of the American economy has been notable today. Unemployment rates have decreased, inflation has stabilized, and there are signs of a solid economic recovery, outpacing many other regions of the world. This recovery, fueled by significant government stimulus, has exceeded expectations. [ source ]

To determine whether one is better off today than in 2020, it is essential to consider various economic indicators, such as employment rates, inflation trends, and overall growth. Focusing solely on gas prices and mortgage rates might suggest deterioration, but a broader perspective reveals a much healthier economy.

Understanding the principles of supply and demand, as well as the consequences of inflation, provides a comprehensive framework for assessing current economic conditions compared to 2020. While simplistic phrases can impact public perception, the realities of economic recovery require a deeper exploration to fully understand the progress made.

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A frequently overlooked but crucial aspect of economic health is the situation with the Social Security fund. According to a 2023 report from the Social Security Administration, the fund is expected to be depleted by 2034, which could lead to decreased benefit payments unless new reforms are implemented. This directly impacts the long-term financial planning of Ernst & Young retirees, making economic stability and current policy responses more significant when individuals near or at retirement age assess their financial situation over the next decade. [ source ]

Assessing your current situation compared to 2020 is like evaluating the health of a garden through the seasons. In 2020, the garden was hit by an unexpected and severe cold snap - the pandemic - which hindered growth and left the landscape unexplored. Essential nutrients were scarce, and daily life seemed at a standstill, reflecting the decreased demand and economic activity. Today, after proper nurturing and strategic feeding through stimulative measures and policy adjustments, the garden is regenerating. Plants are thriving, and the soil is more fertile, suggesting a resurgence. This recovery reflects the economic rebound, indicating a more flourishing environment than the stagnant calm of 2020. For those planning to retire or already retired, this resurgence marks a better opportunity to develop their financial plans, keeping robust growth in the coming years.

This information is not intended as a recommendation. The opinions are subject to change at any time and no forecasts can be guaranteed. Investment decision should always be made based on an investors specific circumstances. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle.