The Ripple Effects of Tariffs: How Cummins Inc Employees Can Navigate Inflation, Pensions, and 401(k) Impacts

Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for Cummins Inc. Cummins Inc. primarily administers its employee health benefits through major insurance providers, including UnitedHealthcare and Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield (BCBS), among others. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As Cummins Inc. anticipates significant healthcare cost increases in 2026, employees should prepare for potential spikes in premiums driven by a combination of factors. A projected rise of up to 8.5% in employer-sponsored insurance costs, alongside the potential expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies, may lead many employees to see their out-of-pocket expenses grow considerably. With certain states experiencing premium hikes exceeding 60%, comprehensive financial planning, including the strategic use of Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), will become essential for mitigating the anticipated financial impact on individuals and families. Click here to learn more

With tariffs on the rise, Cummins Inc employees need to understand how rising inflation and interest rates could affect their pensions and 401(k) bond portfolios and force them to adjust their strategies to limit losses,” said Patrick Ray of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement Group.

“For Cummins Inc employees, understanding how tariffs affect consumer prices and bond portfolios will help them protect their retirement savings,” said Michael Corgiat, of the Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement Group.

In this article, we will discuss:

• 1. How tariffs drive inflation & higher consumer prices.

• 2. Impact of tariffs on lump-sum pension values and interest rates.

• 3. The effect of rising interest rates on 401(k) bond portfolios.

Today's global economy is shaped by tariffs. Those changes could affect personal retirement savings and financial health - and for Cummins Inc employees, understanding how tariffs could affect the economy is critical. With rising tariffs comes higher inflation, consumer prices, interest rates and, most importantly, lump-sum pensions and 401(k) bond portfolios. This article explores how increased tariffs in the United States might drive higher inflation, consumer price swings, higher interest rates for Cummins Inc pensions and changes to bond portfolios in Cummins Inc employees' 401(k) accounts.

Tariffs and Inflation

Tariffs act like taxes on imported goods and are thus more expensive for consumers. When passed on, those extra costs drive up prices, creating inflation. That means higher prices for everyday goods and potential inflationary pressures on living costs for Cummins Inc employees. Imports become more expensive and domestic producers may also increase prices because of lower foreign competition, which may raise production costs across sectors. Suppose tariffs raise the cost of imported materials like steel - then manufacturers of the material might pass the higher cost on to consumers. During high-tariff environments, inflation may increase because of cost-push inflation: higher production costs mean more expensive consumer goods.

Impact of Tariffs on Consumer Prices

Increasing tariffs usually means immediate price increases for consumers, which reduce purchasing power. It could mean paying more for goods like electronics and clothing - or even vehicles that depend on imported parts - for Cummins Inc employees. With tariffs come higher costs for consumers - which could hurt economic growth. Also, a lower availability of foreign product could lead to fewer options or a higher cost for alternatives that may be of lower quality. Rising consumer costs could lower the buying power of Cummins Inc employees, which could mean lower consumption and spending adjustments.

Interest Rates & Lump-Sum Pension Values

Inflation normally triggers the Federal Reserve to increase short-term interest rates to stabilize the economy. That may be especially dramatic for Cummins Inc employees contemplating a lump-sum pension distribution. Rising interest rates often raise long-term bond yields - like the 10-year Treasury yield - which is used as a measure of lump-sum pension values. When tariffs push up the 10-year Treasury rate, the present value of future pension payments may decrease. This is because lump-sum payouts are calculated by discounting future pension payments at current interest rates - so if these rates rise, the lump-sum amount is lower. Hence, employees of Cummins Inc planning lump-sum distributions could see potential payouts cut by a high-interest-rate environment driven by higher tariffs.

401(k) Bond Portfolios Effect

Rising interest rates also affect Cummins Inc employees with 401(k) accounts that hold bond portfolios. Bond prices usually move inversely with interest rates, so higher interest rates make existing bonds generally less valuable. It happens because new bonds carry higher yields, making older bonds with lower yields less attractive. That could hurt bond holdings in some Cummins Inc 401(k) accounts. Employees with high bond exposure or longer-duration bonds are particularly affected. Shorter-duration bonds or funds with diversified strategies may, however, see a less pronounced effect and provide some protection in an increasing interest rate environment.

Inflation from higher tariffs could push consumer prices up - and for Cummins Inc employees that means more expensive imported goods - because consumers pay more. To cope with inflation, the Fed could hike interest rates - which would hit lump-sum pension values and potentially wipe out some bond-laden 401(k) portfolios. Cummins Inc retirees and employees approaching retirement should weigh these economic considerations when making financial decisions, particularly in a high-tariff, inflationary environment. The ripple effects of tariffs on retirement savings could help Cummins Inc employees understand how to save more for retirement.

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Sources:

1. Barbiero, Omar, and Hillary Stein. 'The Impact of Tariffs on Inflation.'  Federal Reserve Bank of Boston , 6 Feb. 2025,  https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2025/the-impact-of-tariffs-on-inflation.aspx .

2. Conerly, Bill. 'The Price-Inflation Paradox: How Tariffs Really Affect The Economy.'  Forbes , 21 Nov. 2024,  https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2024/11/21/the-price-inflation-paradox-how-tariffs-really-affect-the-economy/ .

3. Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein. 'The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare.'  Journal of Economic Perspectives , vol. 33, no. 4, Fall 2019, pp. 187–210.

4. 'The Economic and Investment Implications of Higher Tariffs.'  UBS , 3 Sept. 2024,  https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/insights/investment-research/us-elections/2024/the-economic-and-investment-implications-of-higher-tariffs.html .

5. 'How Five Pros Are Inflation-Proofing Their Investments.'  The Wall Street Journal , 6 Jan. 2025,  https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/how-five-pros-are-inflation-proofing-their-investments-a1c26770 .