Carlyle Group Employees: Is Now the Time to Sell Your Home, or Should You Wait?

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In view of the expected property price growth, Carlyle Group employees should consider their real estate as an important part of their wealth and determine their readiness to sell, recommends Tyson Mavar, a representative of The Retirement Group at Wealth Enhancement Group. 'Knowledge of the market trends and timings can make a huge difference to your financial returns.'

'Wesley Boudreaux of The Retirement Group at Wealth Enhancement Group recommends that Carlyle Group employees determine how the anticipated rise in home values will affect their personal financial plans. It is possible that delaying the decisions on the housing market, especially in the current economic environment, may improve their long-term financial position.'

In this article, we will discuss:

1. 'Forecasted Trends in Housing Prices: An analysis of the predicted rise in house prices by Bank of America and the possible positive implications for homeowners, particularly those from the Carlyle Group company in light of the pandemic and current mortgage rates.'

2. 'Economic Factors Influencing the Housing Market: Examining how changes caused by the pandemic, including increased remote working and preference for suburban areas, along with fluctuating mortgage rates, are influencing the present and future of real estate.'

3. 'Strategic Considerations for Home Selling: Examining the advantages and disadvantages of not selling a home until the prices rise and how population changes influence the housing market trends.'

Learn why it is beneficial to hold off on selling your real estate property in today’s market and how these tips can help you maximize your return on investment.

According to Michael Gapen, the Chief US Economist at Bank of America, the prices are still going to rise quickly. According to the bank, house prices will grow by 5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2024. For the Carlyle Group employees who plan on selling their homes, it may be worth considering the post-pandemic world and the present mortgage rates. It might be better to wait for a few more years.

The property market has been on the rise post-pandemic and the values of homes have increased by 6% on average every year. This has created a very good market for those who own the properties. Bank of America has pointed out that this trend is likely to persist.

In their most recent analysis of the housing market, Gapen and his team expect prices to keep rising by 4.5% this year and 5% in 2025. They predict that there will be no cooling down of the market until the year 2026, which means that current homeowners, including those from Carlyle Group, might stand to benefit from waiting since higher sale prices may be possible in the near future.

The Virtue of Patience

There are several good reasons why it could be advantageous for homeowners to prevent selling. Gapen points out that the economic effects of the pandemic are still ongoing and may not reach their fullest in late 2025. This has also increased long-term housing trends such as working from home and preferring suburban areas which still keep the prices high. Another important factor for homeowners is the changing mortgage rates. Many got rates as low as 3% during the pandemic. With rates now sitting at 7%, it may actually be more advantageous to remain in one’s home. The Federal Reserve may cut rates later this year, but Bank of America believes it may take years for the difference between current and historical mortgage rates to disappear, which makes a strong case for staying in one’s home.

Possibility of Price Increases After 2026

Homeowners can expect price increases for the next two years at the minimum. If the impacts of the pandemic decrease to the point of almost being unnoticeable by the end of 2025, the market may level off and even experience a slight rise of 0.5% in 2026. The macroeconomic conditions are expected to improve, the housing supply is expected to increase, and the monetary policy is expected to loosen, which should bring down the prices. However, there is a possibility of prices rising even after 2026.

Historically, real personal discretionary income has been highly correlated with housing prices. As Bank of America notes, the current momentum in home prices may lead to sustainably higher prices than the fundamental values. This inertia provides homeowners, including those at Carlyle Group, with more opportunities for appreciation. If the effects of the pandemic are worse than expected, and the housing market remains strong, prices can rise another 5% by 2026. Furthermore, the population dynamics in the subsequent years will continue to stimulate housing demand. Millennials have now become the largest home buying segment and are likely to influence the market in a big way.

Therefore, it is recommended that a homeowner only considers selling their property when they are certain that they can sell at a higher price due to market trends. A recent Harvard University study pointed out that the percentage of older individuals with mortgage debts has doubled over the last three decades, which is good news for many retirees to wait out potential increases in property value.

This information is not intended as a recommendation. The opinions are subject to change at any time and no forecasts can be guaranteed. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor's specific circumstances. Investing has its risks, including the possibility of losing principal.

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• Sources:

1. Santarelli, Marco. 'Housing Market: Sell Now or Wait? What Does Bank of America Say?' Norada Real Estate Investing July 8, 2024,  www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-sell-now-or-wait/ . Accessed February 4, 2025.

2. Dahl, Roxanne. 'According to Bank of America Economist, Housing Market is 'Stuck' Until at Least 2026.' Weekly Real Estate News, July 7, 2024, wrenews.com/bank-of-america-economist-housing-market-stuck-2026. Accessed February 4, 2025.

3. Amelia. 'Bank of America: Housing Market Challenges Expected to Persist Until 2026.' Realty Biz Blog, 2024, realtybizblog.com/us-housing-market-stuck-until-2026. Accessed February 4, 2025.

4. 'BoA Michael Gapen - Macro Economic Trends and Risks.' Motley Fool Community, September 11, 2022, discussion.fool.com/boa-michael-gapen-74773. Accessed February 4, 2025.

5. 'Household Spending Remains Strong.' Bloomberg, undated, bloomberg.com/article/household-spending-gapen/. Accessed February 4, 2025.