In view of the expected property price growth, University of Chicago employees should consider their real estate as an important part of their wealth and determine their readiness to sell, recommends Tyson Mavar, a representative of The Retirement Group at Wealth Enhancement Group. 'Knowledge of the market trends and timings can make a huge difference to your financial returns.'
'Wesley Boudreaux of The Retirement Group at Wealth Enhancement Group recommends that University of Chicago employees determine how the anticipated rise in home values will affect their personal financial plans. It is possible that delaying the decisions on the housing market, especially in the current economic environment, may improve their long-term financial position.'
In this article, we will discuss:
1. 'Forecasted Trends in Housing Prices: An analysis of the predicted rise in house prices by Bank of America and the possible positive implications for homeowners, particularly those from the University of Chicago company in light of the pandemic and current mortgage rates.'
2. 'Economic Factors Influencing the Housing Market: Examining how changes caused by the pandemic, including increased remote working and preference for suburban areas, along with fluctuating mortgage rates, are influencing the present and future of real estate.'
3. 'Strategic Considerations for Home Selling: Examining the advantages and disadvantages of not selling a home until the prices rise and how population changes influence the housing market trends.'
Learn why it is beneficial to hold off on selling your real estate property in today’s market and how these tips can help you maximize your return on investment.
According to Michael Gapen, the Chief US Economist at Bank of America, the prices are still going to rise quickly. According to the bank, house prices will grow by 5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2024. For the University of Chicago employees who plan on selling their homes, it may be worth considering the post-pandemic world and the present mortgage rates. It might be better to wait for a few more years.
The property market has been on the rise post-pandemic and the values of homes have increased by 6% on average every year. This has created a very good market for those who own the properties. Bank of America has pointed out that this trend is likely to persist.
In their most recent analysis of the housing market, Gapen and his team expect prices to keep rising by 4.5% this year and 5% in 2025. They predict that there will be no cooling down of the market until the year 2026, which means that current homeowners, including those from University of Chicago, might stand to benefit from waiting since higher sale prices may be possible in the near future.
The Virtue of Patience
There are several good reasons why it could be advantageous for homeowners to prevent selling. Gapen points out that the economic effects of the pandemic are still ongoing and may not reach their fullest in late 2025. This has also increased long-term housing trends such as working from home and preferring suburban areas which still keep the prices high. Another important factor for homeowners is the changing mortgage rates. Many got rates as low as 3% during the pandemic. With rates now sitting at 7%, it may actually be more advantageous to remain in one’s home. The Federal Reserve may cut rates later this year, but Bank of America believes it may take years for the difference between current and historical mortgage rates to disappear, which makes a strong case for staying in one’s home.
Possibility of Price Increases After 2026
Homeowners can expect price increases for the next two years at the minimum. If the impacts of the pandemic decrease to the point of almost being unnoticeable by the end of 2025, the market may level off and even experience a slight rise of 0.5% in 2026. The macroeconomic conditions are expected to improve, the housing supply is expected to increase, and the monetary policy is expected to loosen, which should bring down the prices. However, there is a possibility of prices rising even after 2026.
Historically, real personal discretionary income has been highly correlated with housing prices. As Bank of America notes, the current momentum in home prices may lead to sustainably higher prices than the fundamental values. This inertia provides homeowners, including those at University of Chicago, with more opportunities for appreciation. If the effects of the pandemic are worse than expected, and the housing market remains strong, prices can rise another 5% by 2026. Furthermore, the population dynamics in the subsequent years will continue to stimulate housing demand. Millennials have now become the largest home buying segment and are likely to influence the market in a big way.
Therefore, it is recommended that a homeowner only considers selling their property when they are certain that they can sell at a higher price due to market trends. A recent Harvard University study pointed out that the percentage of older individuals with mortgage debts has doubled over the last three decades, which is good news for many retirees to wait out potential increases in property value.
This information is not intended as a recommendation. The opinions are subject to change at any time and no forecasts can be guaranteed. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor's specific circumstances. Investing has its risks, including the possibility of losing principal.
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Sources:
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Santarelli, Marco. 'Housing Market: Sell Now or Wait? What Does Bank of America Say?' Norada Real Estate Investing July 8, 2024, www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-sell-now-or-wait/ . Accessed February 4, 2025.
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Dahl, Roxanne. 'According to Bank of America Economist, Housing Market is 'Stuck' Until at Least 2026.' Weekly Real Estate News, July 7, 2024, wrenews.com/bank-of-america-economist-housing-market-stuck-2026. Accessed February 4, 2025.
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Amelia. 'Bank of America: Housing Market Challenges Expected to Persist Until 2026.' Realty Biz Blog, 2024, realtybizblog.com/us-housing-market-stuck-until-2026. Accessed February 4, 2025.
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'BoA Michael Gapen - Macro Economic Trends and Risks.' Motley Fool Community, September 11, 2022, discussion.fool.com/boa-michael-gapen-74773. Accessed February 4, 2025.
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'Household Spending Remains Strong.' Bloomberg, undated, bloomberg.com/article/household-spending-gapen/. Accessed February 4, 2025.
What are the eligibility criteria for participation in the SEPP plan for employees of The University of Chicago, and how can factors like years of service and age impact an employee's benefits under this plan? Discuss how these criteria might have changed for new employees post-2016 and what implications this has for retirement planning.
Eligibility Criteria for SEPP: Employees at The University of Chicago become eligible to participate in the SEPP upon meeting age and service requirements: being at least 21 years old and completing one year of service. For employees hired after the plan freeze on October 31, 2016, these criteria have been crucial in determining eligibility for newer employees, impacting their retirement planning as they do not accrue benefits under SEPP beyond this freeze date.
In what ways does the SEPP (Staff Employees Pension Plan) benefit calculation at The University of Chicago reflect an employee's years of service and final average pay? Examine the formulas involved in the benefits determination process, including how outside factors such as Social Security compensation can affect the total pension benefits an employee receives at retirement.
Benefit Calculation Reflecting Service and Pay: The SEPP benefits are calculated based on the final average pay and years of participation, factoring in Social Security covered compensation. Changes post-2016 have frozen benefits accrual, meaning that current employees’ benefits are calculated only up to this freeze date, affecting long-term benefits despite continued employment.
How can employees at The University of Chicago expect their SEPP benefits to be paid out upon their retirement, especially in terms of the options between lump sum distributions and annuities? Analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each payment option, and how these choices can impact an employee's financial situation in retirement.
Payout Options (Lump Sum vs. Annuities): Upon retirement, employees can opt for a lump sum payment or annuities. Each option presents financial implications; lump sums provide immediate access to funds but annuities offer sustained income. This choice is significant for financial stability in retirement, particularly under the constraints post the 2016 plan changes.
Can you elaborate on the spousal rights associated with the pension benefits under the SEPP plan at The University of Chicago? Discuss how marital status influences annuity payments and the required spousal consent when considering changes to beneficiary designations.
Spousal Rights in SEPP Benefits: Spouses have rights to pension benefits, requiring spousal consent for altering beneficiary arrangements under the SEPP. Changes post-2016 do not impact these rights, but understanding these is vital for making informed decisions about pension benefits and beneficiary designations.
As an employee nearing retirement at The University of Chicago, what considerations should one keep in mind regarding taxes on pension benefits received from the SEPP? Explore the tax implications of different types of distributions and how they align with current IRS regulations for the 2024 tax year.
Tax Considerations for SEPP Benefits: SEPP distributions are taxable income. Employees must consider the tax implications of their chosen payout method—lump sum or annuities—and plan for potential tax liabilities. This understanding is crucial, especially with the plan’s benefit accrual freeze affecting the retirement timeline.
What resources are available for employees of The University of Chicago wishing to understand more about their retirement benefits under SEPP? Discuss the types of information that can be requested from the Benefits Office and highlight the contact methods for obtaining more detailed assistance.
Resources for Understanding SEPP Benefits: The University provides resources for employees to understand their SEPP benefits, including access to the Benefits Office for personalized queries. Utilizing these resources is essential for employees, especially newer ones post-2016, to fully understand their retirement benefits under the current plan structure.
How does The University of Chicago address benefits for employees upon their death, and what provisions exist for both spouses and non-spouse beneficiaries under the SEPP plan? Analyze the specific benefits and payment structures available to beneficiaries and the conditions under which these benefits are distributed.
Posthumous Benefits: The SEPP includes provisions for spouses and non-spouse beneficiaries, detailing the continuation or lump sum payments upon the death of the employee. Understanding these provisions is crucial for estate planning and ensuring financial security for beneficiaries.
What factors ensure an employee remains fully vested in their pension benefits with The University of Chicago, and how does the vesting schedule affect retirement planning strategies? Consider the implications of not fulfilling the vesting criteria and how this might influence decisions around employment tenure and retirement timing.
Vesting and Retirement Planning: Vesting in SEPP requires three years of service, with full benefits contingent on meeting this criterion. For employees navigating post-2016 changes, understanding vesting is crucial for retirement planning, particularly as no additional benefits accrue beyond the freeze date.
Discuss the impact of a Qualified Domestic Relations Order (QDRO) on the SEPP benefits for employees at The University of Chicago. How do divorce or separation proceedings influence pension benefits, and what steps should employees take to ensure compliance with a QDRO?
Impact of QDROs on SEPP Benefits: SEPP complies with Qualified Domestic Relations Orders, which can allocate pension benefits to alternate payees. Understanding how QDROs affect one’s benefits is crucial for financial planning, especially in the context of marital dissolution.
How can employees at The University of Chicago, who have questions about their benefits under the SEPP plan, effectively communicate with the Benefits Office for clarity and assistance? Specify the various communication methods available for employees and what kind of information or support they can expect to receive.
Communicating with the Benefits Office: Employees can reach out to the Benefits Office via email or phone for detailed assistance on their SEPP benefits. Effective communication with this office is vital for employees to clarify their benefits status, particularly in light of the post-2016 changes to the plan.