Adapting to Change: A Toll Brothers Employee's Guide to Navigating the Evolving Job Market

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The once unique job market in the United States has come to an end. The wave of unprecedented hiring and the historic drop in unemployment that allowed millions of workers, including those at Toll Brothers, to explore new opportunities, increase their salaries, and rethink their careers has become more ordinary. At Toll Brothers, although the overall health of the job market is maintained through various measures, signs of a recession are emerging.

The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% last month, marking the first time it has surpassed 4% since 2021. While still low by historical standards, this represents a noticeable increase from the rise to 3.4% at the beginning of the previous year. Moreover, the frenetic pace of job changes has slowed, and college graduates are finding it more challenging to enter the job market. The unemployment rate has returned to its pre-pandemic level of 1.2, down from over 2 in 2022. Despite the low risk of layoffs, hiring at Toll Brothers has decreased below pre-Covid levels.

Historically, periods with an unemployment rate below 4% for at least six months have been rare. The growth in the job market, driven by the economic impact of the pandemic, was never meant to be sustainable.

During the growth period, wages increased as employers competed for workers in a nationwide labor shortage. According to  government data , the wage growth rate reached a peak of 5.9% year-over-year in March 2022. Unions took advantage of this period to negotiate significant increases in wages and benefits for workers in various sectors, including UPS drivers, automotive workers, healthcare professionals, and retail workers.

However, the rate of wage growth has since moderated, decreasing to 3.9% year-over-year, which remains above the pre-pandemic average of about 3%. The U.S. economic growth continues to increase significantly each month—206,000 in June—extending a 42-month economic growth streak. However, recent hiring has been concentrated in sectors such as healthcare, construction, and public work, while other sectors, such as restaurants and certain high-level jobs, have stagnated or decreased after recording significant improvements during the pandemic.

This contrasts sharply with the labor shortage period, when companies urgently recruited HR professionals to manage their recruitment needs.

However, the dynamics have changed. With dwindling savings and networking attempts failing, finding new jobs has been challenging. 

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The latest  beige book  from the Federal Reserve, an economic review of its regional banks, revealed that some employers continue to face difficulties finding skilled workers in sectors such as manufacturing, engineering, auditing, and others. However, most regions have reported signs of a job market freeze. The Minneapolis Fed noted an increase in traffic at job markets and centers, while the Boston Fed highlighted that hotels are 'finally adequately staffed' after long labor shortages. In the Kansas City Fed district, many businesses have reduced their working hours and stopped posting jobs.

Despite the downturn in the job market, an advantage for workers is the low layoff rate, with many companies successfully recruiting employees they struggled to find during the labor shortage. Nevertheless, the hiring rate has slightly decreased below pre-Covid levels. 

The current situation in the job market is a transition from extraordinary times to more ordinary conditions. While the job market remains strong in many areas, workers and employers, including those at Toll Brothers, must exercise caution and adaptability in this constant evolution. The lessons learned from the health crisis highlight the dynamic nature of professional trends and the importance of preparing for future evolutions in the job market.

According to a recent study by the  AARP  published in May 2024, older individuals are increasingly opting for part-time and consultancy jobs to manage their transition to retirement while maintaining an income. This trend demonstrates a more general shift in the job market where flexible jobs are becoming more prevalent, allowing experienced professionals to leverage their expertise without committing to full-time positions. This evolution presents unique opportunities and challenges for older individuals exploring their career paths in an ever-changing job market.