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CHS Insights: What’s Fueling the 2025 Gold Rally?

'For CHS employees navigating today’s volatile economic landscape, the surge in gold prices underscores the importance of reviewing long-term financial strategies through a lens of historical perspective and market resilience.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'The sharp rise in gold prices in 2025 reminds CHS employees to evaluate how global economic shifts and inflation trends could impact their broader retirement planning approach.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

The driving forces behind gold’s price increase in 2025, including central bank activity and global economic conditions.
Historical patterns of gold rallies and their relevance to current market dynamics.
Strategic implications for investors, including CHS employees, given gold's recent performance.

Gold is experiencing one of its strongest years on record, rising as much as 30% year-over-year. ¹ In April 2025, it rose as high as $3,500 per troy ounce ¹ —nearly double its price from the autumn of 2022. Multiple global factors are fueling this rise, including increased activity from central banks, shifts in investment strategies, and persistent economic uncertainty. These developments are influencing sentiment across financial markets, including for CHS investors with concentrated commodity exposures.

The Rally's Basis

A primary catalyst of this rally has been a notable increase in gold purchases by central banks, especially from non-OECD countries. From 2022 to 2024, central banks added approximately 1,000 metric tons of gold to their reserves each year. ² Poland was a standout in 2024, acquiring 90 metric tons. ³ Boris Shepov, co-manager of the Fidelity® Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX), notes that this behavior reflects a move away from reliance on the U.S. dollar. ⁴ This trend may influence the strategic positioning of commodity-related businesses as dollar fluctuations impact both oil and gold pricing.

China’s ongoing demand for gold further reinforces global interest. In April 2025 alone, China imported 127.5 metric tons of gold—an 11-month high ⁵ —prompting the People’s Bank of China to ease bullion import controls. This surge in both consumer and institutional interest in gold reflects broader concerns about macroeconomic volatility, a factor that also affects pricing trends in global energy markets relevant to companies like CHS.

Economic Instability as a Catalyst

Ongoing global financial concerns are contributing to increased demand for gold. Since late 2022, rising fears of a potential recession have driven investors toward assets viewed as more resilient in uncertain environments. These dynamics helped gold surpass the $2,000 threshold. In Q1 2025, after the U.S. credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s from 'Aaa' to 'Aa1' due to negative GDP growth, the shift toward gold intensified. Similar volatility affects investment behavior in sectors tied to commodities.

Historic Context

Previous gold rallies offer a useful frame of reference. In the late 1970s, runaway inflation sparked a rapid rise in gold prices. During the 2007–08 financial crisis, investors shifted to gold amid widespread economic disruption. The 2010s saw gold gradually rise in tandem with expanding global liquidity, while the 2020 pandemic fueled another gold spike as central banks introduced stimulus. As with oil, gold often mirrors broader economic trends—a trend that should remain on the radar of any investor, including those at CHS.

Today’s Environment

The current rally gained momentum in late 2022 and accelerated significantly after gold broke through $2,000 in 2023. Now trading at record levels, gold’s rise reflects changing global capital allocation patterns and heightened economic uncertainty. For CHS employees, this shift parallels evolving investment approaches influenced by inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical developments.

The Road Ahead

Despite the current bullish environment, many market analysts urge caution. Although gold’s price may be exceeding some underlying real-rate fundamentals, interest rates and inflation will still play a role in determining future trends. CHS employees and retirees may find these macroeconomic signals relevant when reviewing oil-linked investments and corporate strategy outlooks.

Shepov remains positive on gold’s long-term trajectory, citing structural factors like fiscal deficits and expanded monetary supply. However, he also acknowledges the likelihood of short-term fluctuations, with corrections of 10% to 15% remaining a common feature during extended rallies.

Final Insights

The convergence of global instability, policy recalibration, and institutional demand has created a powerful backdrop for gold. While historical events help contextualize the present environment, each rally emerges from a unique combination of risk factors and potential opportunities. For CHS employees evaluating investment allocation strategies, gold stands as both a potential value-preserving asset and a market influenced by evolving global conditions.

One of the more prominent developments in 2025 has been the increase in gold-backed exchange traded fund (ETF) flows. Over 150 tonnes were added to global retirement portfolios in Q1, according to the World Gold Council. This activity suggests that many retirement-focused investors are adapting to changing market conditions by incorporating gold into their strategies.

Understanding the gold rally in 2025 requires an examination of central bank activity, inflation trends, U.S. dollar positioning, and ETF flows. For CHS employees and stakeholders, these elements echo shifts in the broader energy and commodity sectors and speak to the ongoing need to pay close attention to shifting geopolitical and market trends when structuring portfolios.

Analogy

The 2025 surge in gold resembles a cargo ship returning to harbor after navigating turbulent seas. For seasoned investors—much like experienced CHS employees monitoring ocean currents—the reappearance of familiar indicators such as elevated inflation and depreciating currencies suggests that gold’s ascent was a foreseeable response to prevailing conditions. This rally, like previous voyages, highlights the importance of maintaining a thoughtful approach during economic uncertainty.

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Sources:

1. J.P. Morgan. ' Will gold prices break $4,000/oz in 2026? ' June 10, 2025.

2. RBC Wealth Management. ' Gold's regime change? ' by Joseph Wu. June 26, 2025.

3. VettaFi Advisor Perspectives. ' Central Banks Continued Stockpiling Gold in Q1 ,' by Mike Maharrey. May 9, 2025.

4. Kitco News. ' Gold's long-term drivers remain, but investors should be cautious in the near term - Fidelity's Shepov and Oldham ,' by Ernest Hoffman. May 30, 2025.

5. Kitco News. ' China's gold imports via Hong Kong nearly tripled to 43.5 tonnes in April as premiums rose ,' by Ernest Hoffman. May 27, 2025.

Other Resources:

1. Stevens, Jessica. “Central Banks on Track for 4th Year of Massive Gold Purchases.” Reuters , 5 June 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/central-banks-track-4th-year-massive-gold-purchases-metals-focus-says-2025-06-05/ .

2. World Gold Council. Gold Demand Trends Q1 2025 . World Gold Council, May 2025, www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2025 .

3. Doshi, Aakash, and Diego Andrade. Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook . State Street Global Advisors, 4 June 2025, www.ssga.com/library-content/pdfs/global/gold-2025-midyear-outlook.pdf .

4. Szafron, Jeremy. “Gold Demand Surges in Q1 as Central Banks and Investors Buy Up Bullion.” Kitco News , 21 May 2025, https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-05-21/gold-demand-surges-q1-central-banks-and-investors-return-market-says-wgcs .

5. Mackenzie, Michael. “Gold Set to Rally Further This Year, Say Wall Street Banks.” Financial Times , 12 Jan. 2025, https://www.ft.com/content/9fa96c1d-03f2-4d25-9644-b29ae19407aa .

What are the specific criteria that determine eligibility for the various contributions within the CHS 401(k) plan, and how do these contributions affect an employeeâ€™s retirement savings over time at CHS? Understanding these criteria can help employees maximize their contributions to ensure they are making the most of the benefits offered by CHS.

Eligibility for 401(k) Contributions: CHS employees can contribute up to 75% of their eligible compensation to their 401(k), with an IRS limit of $18,000 (in 2017) plus an additional $6,000 for those aged 50 and older. CHS also provides a basic contribution of 2% and a performance-based contribution, which increases based on years of service(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Understanding these contributions can help maximize retirement savings.

How does the CHS Pension Plan work, particularly regarding the differences between the traditional account and the cash balance account? Employees might want to delve into how their choices and years of service will impact their retirement payout from either account.

CHS Pension Plan Structure: CHS offers a pension plan with both traditional and cash balance accounts. The traditional account is based on average pay and years of service, while the cash balance account accrues pay credits based on service. After December 31, 2017, pay credits ceased, but interest credits continue(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Employees should understand how these accounts affect their retirement benefits.

In what ways does the vesting schedule of CHS employer contributions influence an employee's retirement strategy? Employees at CHS need to understand how vesting affects their overall benefits and what steps they must take to ensure they are fully vested in time for retirement.

Vesting Schedule Impact: CHS has a three-year vesting schedule for its basic 401(k) contributions, while match and performance-based contributions are immediately vested(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Knowing the vesting rules is crucial for employees planning their retirement strategy, ensuring full benefits are realized.

Can you explain what "frozen" benefits mean for employees nearing retirement at CHS, and how this affects the calculations of future pension benefits? It's critical for employees to grasp the implications of a frozen pension account on their retirement plans.

Frozen Benefits: CHS employees with frozen benefits in the pension plan will not receive further pay credits after December 31, 2017, but interest credits will continue(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Understanding this freeze is essential for planning retirement payouts.

How can employees at CHS plan for their retirement withdrawals post-employment, particularly focusing on the pension distribution options that are available to them? Employees may find it beneficial to understand the long-term effects of these options on their financial health during retirement.

Retirement Withdrawals: CHS employees have the option to withdraw retirement savings via lump-sum payments or monthly annuities(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Choosing the right distribution option can significantly impact long-term financial health in retirement.

What actions should employees take if they want to change their contribution elections or investment strategies within CHS retirement plans? Knowledge of the processes for making changes can empower employees to take proactive steps in managing their retirement savings.

Changing Contribution Elections: Employees can change their contribution and investment elections online via the Empower Retirement portal or by calling Empower Retirement(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). This flexibility allows for proactive management of retirement savings.

How does the ability to access and review pension benefits online through the Empower Retirement website enhance the retirement planning process for employees at CHS? This question can lead to discussions about the importance of staying informed about one's financial future.

Access to Pension Benefits Online: Employees can access their pension benefits through Empower Retirement’s website(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Regularly reviewing these accounts is crucial for staying informed about retirement planning.

What are the implications for CHS employees who are not 100% vested in the Pension Plan before the freeze date, and what alternative options do they have for their retirement savings? Understanding this will help employees make informed choices regarding their benefits.

Not Fully Vested Before Freeze: If employees were not fully vested in the pension plan before the freeze date, they are still eligible to receive vested benefits(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Exploring alternative retirement savings options is important for those affected.

How do fluctuations in national interest rates impact the retirement plans of employees at CHS, particularly in the context of cash balance accounts? Employees should consider how external economic factors can affect their financial future.

Interest Rate Impact: The interest rate used to calculate cash balance account credits is the 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate plus 2%. These rates fluctuate annually(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Employees should be aware of how changes in interest rates affect their pension growth.

How should employees contact CHS for more information regarding their retirement benefits, and what resources are particularly useful for navigating the complexities of the pension and 401(k) plans? Contacting the right departments or utilizing specific resources can be crucial for maximizing retirement benefits at CHS. These questions are designed to provide depth and complexity, enabling employees to better understand their retirement benefits and the policies at CHS.

Contacting CHS for Retirement Information: Employees can contact Empower Retirement for pension and 401(k) inquiries via the Empower Retirement website or by phone(CHS_12_31_2017_Retireme…). Utilizing these resources can help navigate complex retirement options.

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