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Jabil Insights: What’s Fueling the 2025 Gold Rally?

'For Jabil employees navigating today’s volatile economic landscape, the surge in gold prices underscores the importance of reviewing long-term financial strategies through a lens of historical perspective and market resilience.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'The sharp rise in gold prices in 2025 reminds Jabil employees to evaluate how global economic shifts and inflation trends could impact their broader retirement planning approach.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

The driving forces behind gold’s price increase in 2025, including central bank activity and global economic conditions.
Historical patterns of gold rallies and their relevance to current market dynamics.
Strategic implications for investors, including Jabil employees, given gold's recent performance.

Gold is experiencing one of its strongest years on record, rising as much as 30% year-over-year. ¹ In April 2025, it rose as high as $3,500 per troy ounce ¹ —nearly double its price from the autumn of 2022. Multiple global factors are fueling this rise, including increased activity from central banks, shifts in investment strategies, and persistent economic uncertainty. These developments are influencing sentiment across financial markets, including for Jabil investors with concentrated commodity exposures.

The Rally's Basis

A primary catalyst of this rally has been a notable increase in gold purchases by central banks, especially from non-OECD countries. From 2022 to 2024, central banks added approximately 1,000 metric tons of gold to their reserves each year. ² Poland was a standout in 2024, acquiring 90 metric tons. ³ Boris Shepov, co-manager of the Fidelity® Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX), notes that this behavior reflects a move away from reliance on the U.S. dollar. ⁴ This trend may influence the strategic positioning of commodity-related businesses as dollar fluctuations impact both oil and gold pricing.

China’s ongoing demand for gold further reinforces global interest. In April 2025 alone, China imported 127.5 metric tons of gold—an 11-month high ⁵ —prompting the People’s Bank of China to ease bullion import controls. This surge in both consumer and institutional interest in gold reflects broader concerns about macroeconomic volatility, a factor that also affects pricing trends in global energy markets relevant to companies like Jabil.

Economic Instability as a Catalyst

Ongoing global financial concerns are contributing to increased demand for gold. Since late 2022, rising fears of a potential recession have driven investors toward assets viewed as more resilient in uncertain environments. These dynamics helped gold surpass the $2,000 threshold. In Q1 2025, after the U.S. credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s from 'Aaa' to 'Aa1' due to negative GDP growth, the shift toward gold intensified. Similar volatility affects investment behavior in sectors tied to commodities.

Historic Context

Previous gold rallies offer a useful frame of reference. In the late 1970s, runaway inflation sparked a rapid rise in gold prices. During the 2007–08 financial crisis, investors shifted to gold amid widespread economic disruption. The 2010s saw gold gradually rise in tandem with expanding global liquidity, while the 2020 pandemic fueled another gold spike as central banks introduced stimulus. As with oil, gold often mirrors broader economic trends—a trend that should remain on the radar of any investor, including those at Jabil.

Today’s Environment

The current rally gained momentum in late 2022 and accelerated significantly after gold broke through $2,000 in 2023. Now trading at record levels, gold’s rise reflects changing global capital allocation patterns and heightened economic uncertainty. For Jabil employees, this shift parallels evolving investment approaches influenced by inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical developments.

The Road Ahead

Despite the current bullish environment, many market analysts urge caution. Although gold’s price may be exceeding some underlying real-rate fundamentals, interest rates and inflation will still play a role in determining future trends. Jabil employees and retirees may find these macroeconomic signals relevant when reviewing oil-linked investments and corporate strategy outlooks.

Shepov remains positive on gold’s long-term trajectory, citing structural factors like fiscal deficits and expanded monetary supply. However, he also acknowledges the likelihood of short-term fluctuations, with corrections of 10% to 15% remaining a common feature during extended rallies.

Final Insights

The convergence of global instability, policy recalibration, and institutional demand has created a powerful backdrop for gold. While historical events help contextualize the present environment, each rally emerges from a unique combination of risk factors and potential opportunities. For Jabil employees evaluating investment allocation strategies, gold stands as both a potential value-preserving asset and a market influenced by evolving global conditions.

One of the more prominent developments in 2025 has been the increase in gold-backed exchange traded fund (ETF) flows. Over 150 tonnes were added to global retirement portfolios in Q1, according to the World Gold Council. This activity suggests that many retirement-focused investors are adapting to changing market conditions by incorporating gold into their strategies.

Understanding the gold rally in 2025 requires an examination of central bank activity, inflation trends, U.S. dollar positioning, and ETF flows. For Jabil employees and stakeholders, these elements echo shifts in the broader energy and commodity sectors and speak to the ongoing need to pay close attention to shifting geopolitical and market trends when structuring portfolios.

Analogy

The 2025 surge in gold resembles a cargo ship returning to harbor after navigating turbulent seas. For seasoned investors—much like experienced Jabil employees monitoring ocean currents—the reappearance of familiar indicators such as elevated inflation and depreciating currencies suggests that gold’s ascent was a foreseeable response to prevailing conditions. This rally, like previous voyages, highlights the importance of maintaining a thoughtful approach during economic uncertainty.

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Sources:

1. J.P. Morgan. ' Will gold prices break $4,000/oz in 2026? ' June 10, 2025.

2. RBC Wealth Management. ' Gold's regime change? ' by Joseph Wu. June 26, 2025.

3. VettaFi Advisor Perspectives. ' Central Banks Continued Stockpiling Gold in Q1 ,' by Mike Maharrey. May 9, 2025.

4. Kitco News. ' Gold's long-term drivers remain, but investors should be cautious in the near term - Fidelity's Shepov and Oldham ,' by Ernest Hoffman. May 30, 2025.

5. Kitco News. ' China's gold imports via Hong Kong nearly tripled to 43.5 tonnes in April as premiums rose ,' by Ernest Hoffman. May 27, 2025.

Other Resources:

1. Stevens, Jessica. “Central Banks on Track for 4th Year of Massive Gold Purchases.” Reuters , 5 June 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/central-banks-track-4th-year-massive-gold-purchases-metals-focus-says-2025-06-05/ .

2. World Gold Council. Gold Demand Trends Q1 2025 . World Gold Council, May 2025, www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2025 .

3. Doshi, Aakash, and Diego Andrade. Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook . State Street Global Advisors, 4 June 2025, www.ssga.com/library-content/pdfs/global/gold-2025-midyear-outlook.pdf .

4. Szafron, Jeremy. “Gold Demand Surges in Q1 as Central Banks and Investors Buy Up Bullion.” Kitco News , 21 May 2025, https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-05-21/gold-demand-surges-q1-central-banks-and-investors-return-market-says-wgcs .

5. Mackenzie, Michael. “Gold Set to Rally Further This Year, Say Wall Street Banks.” Financial Times , 12 Jan. 2025, https://www.ft.com/content/9fa96c1d-03f2-4d25-9644-b29ae19407aa .

How does Jabil Circuit ensure the long-term sustainability of its Pension Scheme, and what role do the trustees play in this? In what ways does the investment strategy align with Jabil Circuit's overall business goals and the financial security of its employees?

Jabil Circuit Sustainability of Pension Scheme: Jabil Circuit ensures the long-term sustainability of its pension scheme by setting clear investment objectives that align with the interests of its members and beneficiaries. The trustees, operating under Jabil Pension Trustees Limited (JPT), focus on meeting the scheme's obligations and achieving asset returns above gilts over the long term, while balancing risk control and return generation. The investment strategy is designed to be consistent with return assumptions used by the scheme actuary, considering Jabil's interests in employer contribution payments.

What are the primary objectives of the investment policy for the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme, and how do these objectives impact the decision-making process regarding asset allocation and risk management? Additionally, how do Jabil Circuitâ€™s obligations to its beneficiaries shape these objectives?

Investment Policy Objectives: The primary objectives of Jabil Circuit's pension scheme investment policy are to meet the scheme's obligations to beneficiaries and to achieve long-term asset returns above gilts. These objectives influence decision-making in asset allocation and risk management by ensuring a balance between risk control and return generation. Jabil Circuit's obligations to beneficiaries shape these objectives by prioritizing financial security and the interests of the members.

Can you elaborate on the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) policies of Jabil Circuit and how these policies influence investment decisions made by the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme? In what ways does Jabil Circuit engage with its investment managers to uphold these ESG principles?

ESG Policies Influence: Jabil Circuit incorporates Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) policies into its investment decisions through a structured policy that includes climate change considerations. This policy guides the trustee's engagement with investment managers, ensuring ESG factors are considered in the investment process. Regular reviews and training provided by Mercer help reinforce these principles and ensure they are integrated into the pension scheme's investment strategy.

How do climate change considerations factor into Jabil Circuit's investment approach, particularly in the context of the Pension Scheme? What measures does Jabil Circuit take to assess and manage climate-related risks associated with its investment portfolio?

Climate Change Considerations: Climate change is a significant factor in Jabil Circuit's investment approach, particularly for the pension scheme. The trustees undertake climate scenario modeling and stress testing annually, aligning the investment portfolio with climate-related financial disclosure recommendations and the Paris Agreement objectives. This approach helps manage climate-related risks and ensures the portfolio is positioned to handle various climate scenarios.

What strategies does Jabil Circuit employ to communicate and engage with employees regarding their pension benefits and retirement options? How can employees participate in discussions about changes or updates to the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme?

Employee Communication and Engagement: Jabil Circuit employs strategies to actively engage with employees regarding their pension benefits and retirement options. Regular reporting and updates are provided, and employees have opportunities to participate in discussions about changes to the pension scheme. This open communication ensures employees are well-informed and can make knowledgeable decisions about their retirement planning.

In the context of the current IRS limits for 2024, how does Jabil Circuit assist employees in understanding their retirement savings options, particularly in relation to contributions to the Pension Scheme? What resources are available for employees to navigate these changes?

Understanding Retirement Savings Options: In light of the current IRS limits for 2024, Jabil Circuit assists employees by providing resources and guidance on retirement savings options, particularly concerning contributions to the pension scheme. Educational materials and support systems are in place to help employees understand how these changes affect their retirement planning and contributions.

How does the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme address the issue of responsible investing, and what are the specific exclusions that have been put in place? How does Jabil Circuit balance ethical investment practices with the need for financial returns?

Responsible Investing: Jabil Circuit addresses responsible investing through clear exclusions and ethical investment practices within its pension scheme. The scheme excludes investments in controversial and civilian weapons and tobacco from its active fixed income funds. This approach balances ethical considerations with the need for financial returns, adhering to broader corporate responsibility standards.

What is the frequency and nature of the reporting provided to Jabil Circuit regarding the performance of the Pension Scheme investments? How does this reporting influence the strategic decisions made by the trustees in managing the scheme?

Investment Performance Reporting: The frequency and nature of reporting on the pension scheme's investment performance involve regular updates from Mercer, the investment consultant. These reports influence the trustees' strategic decisions by providing insights into asset performance, risk management, and compliance with investment objectives. This systematic reporting ensures that the trustees are well-informed to manage the scheme effectively.

How has the trustee board of the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme evolved over time, and what qualifications or experiences do board members bring to their roles? In what ways do these factors contribute to effective oversight of the Pension Scheme?

Evolution and Qualifications of Trustee Board: The trustee board of the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme has evolved to include members with specific qualifications and experiences that contribute to effective oversight. Regular training sessions and strategic reviews help trustees stay informed and capable of managing complex investment decisions, ensuring the pension scheme is managed with expertise and due diligence.

How can employees contact Jabil Circuit to learn more about their specific benefits under the Pension Scheme and to seek guidance during the retirement process? What channels are available for employees to access this information effectively?

Contacting Jabil Circuit for Pension Benefits: Employees seeking information about their benefits under the Jabil Circuit Pension Scheme can contact the human resources department or designated pension scheme administrators. Multiple channels, including direct consultations, informational seminars, and online resources, are available to ensure employees have effective access to guidance throughout their retirement process.