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Moog Insights: What’s Fueling the 2025 Gold Rally?

'For Moog employees navigating today’s volatile economic landscape, the surge in gold prices underscores the importance of reviewing long-term financial strategies through a lens of historical perspective and market resilience.' – Michael Corgiat, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

'The sharp rise in gold prices in 2025 reminds Moog employees to evaluate how global economic shifts and inflation trends could impact their broader retirement planning approach.' – Brent Wolf, a representative of The Retirement Group, a division of Wealth Enhancement.

In this article we will discuss:

The driving forces behind gold’s price increase in 2025, including central bank activity and global economic conditions.
Historical patterns of gold rallies and their relevance to current market dynamics.
Strategic implications for investors, including Moog employees, given gold's recent performance.

Gold is experiencing one of its strongest years on record, rising as much as 30% year-over-year. ¹ In April 2025, it rose as high as $3,500 per troy ounce ¹ —nearly double its price from the autumn of 2022. Multiple global factors are fueling this rise, including increased activity from central banks, shifts in investment strategies, and persistent economic uncertainty. These developments are influencing sentiment across financial markets, including for Moog investors with concentrated commodity exposures.

The Rally's Basis

A primary catalyst of this rally has been a notable increase in gold purchases by central banks, especially from non-OECD countries. From 2022 to 2024, central banks added approximately 1,000 metric tons of gold to their reserves each year. ² Poland was a standout in 2024, acquiring 90 metric tons. ³ Boris Shepov, co-manager of the Fidelity® Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX), notes that this behavior reflects a move away from reliance on the U.S. dollar. ⁴ This trend may influence the strategic positioning of commodity-related businesses as dollar fluctuations impact both oil and gold pricing.

China’s ongoing demand for gold further reinforces global interest. In April 2025 alone, China imported 127.5 metric tons of gold—an 11-month high ⁵ —prompting the People’s Bank of China to ease bullion import controls. This surge in both consumer and institutional interest in gold reflects broader concerns about macroeconomic volatility, a factor that also affects pricing trends in global energy markets relevant to companies like Moog.

Economic Instability as a Catalyst

Ongoing global financial concerns are contributing to increased demand for gold. Since late 2022, rising fears of a potential recession have driven investors toward assets viewed as more resilient in uncertain environments. These dynamics helped gold surpass the $2,000 threshold. In Q1 2025, after the U.S. credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s from 'Aaa' to 'Aa1' due to negative GDP growth, the shift toward gold intensified. Similar volatility affects investment behavior in sectors tied to commodities.

Historic Context

Previous gold rallies offer a useful frame of reference. In the late 1970s, runaway inflation sparked a rapid rise in gold prices. During the 2007–08 financial crisis, investors shifted to gold amid widespread economic disruption. The 2010s saw gold gradually rise in tandem with expanding global liquidity, while the 2020 pandemic fueled another gold spike as central banks introduced stimulus. As with oil, gold often mirrors broader economic trends—a trend that should remain on the radar of any investor, including those at Moog.

Today’s Environment

The current rally gained momentum in late 2022 and accelerated significantly after gold broke through $2,000 in 2023. Now trading at record levels, gold’s rise reflects changing global capital allocation patterns and heightened economic uncertainty. For Moog employees, this shift parallels evolving investment approaches influenced by inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical developments.

The Road Ahead

Despite the current bullish environment, many market analysts urge caution. Although gold’s price may be exceeding some underlying real-rate fundamentals, interest rates and inflation will still play a role in determining future trends. Moog employees and retirees may find these macroeconomic signals relevant when reviewing oil-linked investments and corporate strategy outlooks.

Shepov remains positive on gold’s long-term trajectory, citing structural factors like fiscal deficits and expanded monetary supply. However, he also acknowledges the likelihood of short-term fluctuations, with corrections of 10% to 15% remaining a common feature during extended rallies.

Final Insights

The convergence of global instability, policy recalibration, and institutional demand has created a powerful backdrop for gold. While historical events help contextualize the present environment, each rally emerges from a unique combination of risk factors and potential opportunities. For Moog employees evaluating investment allocation strategies, gold stands as both a potential value-preserving asset and a market influenced by evolving global conditions.

One of the more prominent developments in 2025 has been the increase in gold-backed exchange traded fund (ETF) flows. Over 150 tonnes were added to global retirement portfolios in Q1, according to the World Gold Council. This activity suggests that many retirement-focused investors are adapting to changing market conditions by incorporating gold into their strategies.

Understanding the gold rally in 2025 requires an examination of central bank activity, inflation trends, U.S. dollar positioning, and ETF flows. For Moog employees and stakeholders, these elements echo shifts in the broader energy and commodity sectors and speak to the ongoing need to pay close attention to shifting geopolitical and market trends when structuring portfolios.

Analogy

The 2025 surge in gold resembles a cargo ship returning to harbor after navigating turbulent seas. For seasoned investors—much like experienced Moog employees monitoring ocean currents—the reappearance of familiar indicators such as elevated inflation and depreciating currencies suggests that gold’s ascent was a foreseeable response to prevailing conditions. This rally, like previous voyages, highlights the importance of maintaining a thoughtful approach during economic uncertainty.

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Sources:

1. J.P. Morgan. ' Will gold prices break $4,000/oz in 2026? ' June 10, 2025.

2. RBC Wealth Management. ' Gold's regime change? ' by Joseph Wu. June 26, 2025.

3. VettaFi Advisor Perspectives. ' Central Banks Continued Stockpiling Gold in Q1 ,' by Mike Maharrey. May 9, 2025.

4. Kitco News. ' Gold's long-term drivers remain, but investors should be cautious in the near term - Fidelity's Shepov and Oldham ,' by Ernest Hoffman. May 30, 2025.

5. Kitco News. ' China's gold imports via Hong Kong nearly tripled to 43.5 tonnes in April as premiums rose ,' by Ernest Hoffman. May 27, 2025.

Other Resources:

1. Stevens, Jessica. “Central Banks on Track for 4th Year of Massive Gold Purchases.” Reuters , 5 June 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/central-banks-track-4th-year-massive-gold-purchases-metals-focus-says-2025-06-05/ .

2. World Gold Council. Gold Demand Trends Q1 2025 . World Gold Council, May 2025, www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2025 .

3. Doshi, Aakash, and Diego Andrade. Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook . State Street Global Advisors, 4 June 2025, www.ssga.com/library-content/pdfs/global/gold-2025-midyear-outlook.pdf .

4. Szafron, Jeremy. “Gold Demand Surges in Q1 as Central Banks and Investors Buy Up Bullion.” Kitco News , 21 May 2025, https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-05-21/gold-demand-surges-q1-central-banks-and-investors-return-market-says-wgcs .

5. Mackenzie, Michael. “Gold Set to Rally Further This Year, Say Wall Street Banks.” Financial Times , 12 Jan. 2025, https://www.ft.com/content/9fa96c1d-03f2-4d25-9644-b29ae19407aa .

How does the transition from the Moog Pension Plan to the RSP(+) Program affect my retirement savings strategy, and what steps should I take to optimize my contributions in light of the changes Moog has implemented to its retirement programs?

Transition from Pension Plan to RSP(+): The transition from the Moog Pension Plan to the RSP(+) Program offers greater flexibility and portability, as the RSP(+) includes both a retirement contribution and a matching contribution. To optimize your contributions, aim for the maximum percentage of your eligible compensation to take full advantage of Moog's increasing match, which phases up to 10% by October 2021. Evaluate your long-term goals and consult a financial advisor for personalized advice.

In what scenarios would remaining in the Current Retirement Program offered by Moog provide a greater benefit compared to the new RSP(+) program, and what factors should I consider when assessing my long-term retirement goals in relation to these two options?

Benefits of Staying in the Current Program: Remaining in the Current Retirement Program may provide greater benefits for long-term employees close to retirement. The Moog Pension Plan offers a defined benefit that provides predictable, stable income, which can be beneficial if you're near retirement age or value a guaranteed income. Weigh the security of the pension against the flexibility and growth potential of the RSP(+) based on your retirement goals.

With the Moog Pension Plan being "frozen" as of December 31, 2019, how does this affect my accrued benefits, and what are the implications for my retirement planning as I approach retirement age and consider other income sources?

Frozen Moog Pension Plan Impact: Since the Moog Pension Plan was frozen on December 31, 2019, your accrued benefits will not grow, but you retain the value you’ve earned. This fixed benefit, payable as an annuity, can still play a role in your overall retirement strategy. As you approach retirement, plan for other income sources, like Social Security or RSP withdrawals, to supplement your frozen pension benefit.

What are the specific vesting timelines for the different retirement options available through Moog, and how do these timelines impact my ability to access benefits if I decide to leave the company before reaching retirement age?

Vesting Timelines: The Moog Pension Plan vests after five years of service, while the RSP(+) retirement contribution vests after three years. The RSP(+) matching contributions are immediately vested for current employees, but newly hired employees face a three-year vesting schedule. If you leave Moog before vesting, you risk losing unvested contributions, so factor in your tenure when planning your exit.

Can you explain the various payment options available when I decide to withdraw from the Moog Pension Plan or RSP(+) account, specifically discussing the benefits and drawbacks of lump-sum distributions versus annuity options offered by Moog?

Payment Options: For both the Pension Plan and RSP(+) Program, Moog offers various withdrawal options. Pension benefits are generally paid as a monthly annuity, whereas the RSP(+) offers lump sum, installments, or partial withdrawals. A lump sum offers flexibility but shifts the investment risk to you, while an annuity provides stable, lifelong payments but limits liquidity.

What investment decisions do employees have the power to make regarding their contributions to the RSP and RSP(+) at Moog, and how might these decisions impact the overall performance of my individual retirement accounts as I prepare for retirement?

Investment Decisions in the RSP(+): Employees control investment decisions within the RSP(+) Program. Moog’s initial contributions are invested in Moog Class B Stock Fund-Restricted, but you can reallocate to other funds. Your choices significantly impact the growth of your retirement savings, so regularly review your investment strategy to ensure it aligns with your retirement timeline and risk tolerance.

How does Moog ensure the security of my retirement benefits under the Pension Plan, and what protections are in place in the event of financial difficulties faced by the company, including the role of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)?

Security of Retirement Benefits: Moog’s pension benefits are backed by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), providing a safety net in case of company financial difficulties. However, the RSP(+) accounts are not PBGC-insured, and the value depends on investment performance. Your pension is protected, but careful management of your RSP investments is crucial.

In the event of my death before receiving retirement benefits, what provisions does Moog have in place for disbursing my accrued benefits to my beneficiaries, and how does marital status affect these benefits under the Moog Pension Plan and RSP?

Death Benefits: If you pass away before receiving your Pension Plan benefits and are married, your spouse receives a monthly lifetime benefit. For the RSP(+) Program, your designated beneficiary will receive your account balance as a lump sum. Spousal consent is required if you wish to name a non-spousal beneficiary. Marital status directly impacts the distribution of your retirement benefits.

How can I maximize the company match contributions offered in the RSP and RSP(+) plans, and what specific contribution levels should I aim for to ensure that I am fully leveraging the benefits provided by Moog?

Maximizing Company Match: To maximize Moog’s matching contributions, contribute at least 6% of your eligible compensation initially, increasing to 8% in 2020 and 10% in 2021 to receive the full match. By reaching these thresholds, you leverage the full benefits of Moog's matching, boosting your retirement savings potential.

If I have further questions or need more information on my retirement options, how can I contact Moog's HR Employee Support team for assistance, and what resources are available to help me navigate the transition between retirement plans effectively? These questions are designed to encourage deeper exploration of individual retirement situations and the specific policies within the companyâ€™s retirement programs.

Contacting Moog HR for Further Information: For more questions or additional guidance, you can contact Moog's HR Employee Support team via email at employeesupport@moog.com or by calling 844-367-5787. Empower Retirement’s Call Center is also available for technical questions regarding the RSP(+) Program. These resources ensure you have the support needed during your retirement transition(Moog_Choice_Guide_Retir…).