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New Update: Healthcare Costs Increasing by Over 60% in Some States. Will you be impacted?

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Is the U.S. Economy in a Recession?

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Healthcare Provider Update: Healthcare Provider for ConocoPhillips ConocoPhillips provides its employees with access to various healthcare plans through third-party providers, primarily offering services via large insurers such as Blue Cross Blue Shield and UnitedHealthcare. These plans typically include comprehensive medical, vision, and dental coverage tailored to meet the diverse needs of its workforce. Potential Healthcare Cost Increases in 2026 As the healthcare landscape evolves, ConocoPhillips employees can expect significant premium hikes in 2026, driven by a perfect storm of factors impacting the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. With anticipated increases exceeding 60% in some states and the potential expiration of federal premium subsidies, many employees could face out-of-pocket costs soaring by up to 75%, compounding the financial pressure. The ongoing upward trend in medical costs, coupled with employers' shifts in cost-sharing strategies, may further challenge employees as they navigate rising healthcare expenses. Planning ahead and understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective budgeting and healthcare management in the coming years. Click here to learn more

In an early July poll, 58% of Americans said they thought the U.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May. 1  Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The current situation is unusual, and there is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon. 2

Considering the high level of public concern, it may be helpful for ConocoPhillips employees and retirees to look at how a recession is officially determined and some current indicators that suggest strength or weakness in the U.S. economy.

Business Cycle Dating
U.S. recessions and expansions are officially measured and declared by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research. 3

The NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.' The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months. 4

To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced. 5



Strong Employment
Over the last few months, economic data has been mixed. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June. 6  Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month. 7  The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment). 8

The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969. 9  Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows. 10  In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points. 11

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Negative GDP Growth
One common definition of a recession is a decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter. 12  Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, the NBER committee cannot use it to measure monthly economic activity, but the committee does look at it for defining recessions more broadly.

Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. However, the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data. 13

Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter. 14

Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories. 15  Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it's too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels. 16  Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.


The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, it's important for ConocoPhillips employees to keep in consideration that the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.

The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981. 17  Wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market. 18  If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already underway.

Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July. 19  It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a 'soft landing' or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.

No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, from a remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023. 20  If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it's important for ConocoPhillips employees and retirees to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months. 21  To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.

Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1) Investor's Business Daily, July 12, 2022
2) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
3–5) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
6, 12, 15, 21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
7) Reuters, July 15, 2022
8–9, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
11) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
13–14) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022

 

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How does the retirement process at ConocoPhillips provide guidance to employees in selecting the most beneficial form of payment? In what ways can employees utilize available resources to maximize their understanding of the pension options offered by ConocoPhillips?

The retirement process at ConocoPhillips provides employees with various resources to guide them in selecting the most beneficial form of pension payment. Employees can access the "How to Choose the Best Form of Payment" link on Your Benefits Resources™ (YBR) to learn more about their options and determine what works best for their financial situation​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

What steps must be completed by employees at ConocoPhillips to ensure they initiate their retirement process accurately and avoid any delays? How crucial is the timing of these steps in determining the Benefit Commencement Date (BCD)?

Employees at ConocoPhillips must initiate the retirement process by requesting their pension paperwork 60-90 days before their Benefit Commencement Date (BCD). Timing is crucial, as missing deadlines may delay the BCD and associated payments. Completing all steps on time ensures that the retirement process flows smoothly​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

Given the complexities associated with the lump-sum pension payment option at ConocoPhillips, what considerations should employees take into account before electing this choice? How does the current interest rate at the Benefit Commencement Date impact the lump-sum amount?

Before electing a lump-sum pension payment, ConocoPhillips employees should consider the current interest rate at their BCD, as it directly affects the lump-sum amount. A higher interest rate typically reduces the lump-sum payment, making timing and rate awareness critical​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

In what ways can ConocoPhillips employees ensure their Pension Election Authorization form is completed correctly to facilitate timely pension payments? What are the implications of not adhering to the required notarized consent for married participants?

Ensuring the correct completion of the Pension Election Authorization form is vital for timely pension payments. For married participants, notarized spousal consent is required, and failure to provide this could result in delays or issues with payment processing​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

How does choosing direct deposit for pension payments at ConocoPhillips streamline the retirement process for employees? What should employees know about setup and changes regarding direct deposit after initiating their pension benefits?

Choosing direct deposit for pension payments simplifies the process for employees at ConocoPhillips, as it enables automatic payments to their bank account. Employees can set up direct deposit during their retirement process or update it at a later time​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

For employees considering rolling over their lump-sum pension payment from ConocoPhillips, what procedures should they follow to ensure compliance with IRS regulations and to avoid tax penalties? How can effective planning influence the success of this rollover?

Employees electing to roll over their lump-sum pension payment must follow specific IRS regulations to avoid tax penalties. Effective planning, such as obtaining rollover paperwork and adhering to IRS rules, ensures compliance and smooth fund transfer​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

What resources does ConocoPhillips provide for employees to calculate and project their retirement income? How can these tools empower employees to make informed decisions regarding their future financial security?

ConocoPhillips provides employees with tools such as the "Project Retirement Income" feature on YBR, empowering them to calculate and project their retirement income. These resources help employees make informed decisions about their financial future​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

How do deadlines play a pivotal role in the benefits process for retiring employees at ConocoPhillips, and what specific dates must be adhered to in order to avoid payment delays? Can you provide examples of consequences resulting from missed deadlines?

Deadlines are critical in ConocoPhillips' retirement process, as missing them can delay pension payments. For example, requesting pension paperwork after the 15th of the month can delay the BCD by a month, affecting the pension payout date​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

What are the added advantages for employees at ConocoPhillips who actively seek assistance or information from the Benefits Center during their retirement planning? How can this proactive approach enhance their overall retirement experience?

Employees who seek assistance from the Benefits Center during their retirement planning benefit from personalized guidance. This proactive approach ensures that they fully understand their options and deadlines, enhancing their overall retirement experience​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

How can employees at ConocoPhillips contact the Benefits Center to receive personalized assistance in navigating their retirement options? What specific resources and support can they expect when reaching out for help?

ConocoPhillips employees can contact the Benefits Center by calling 800-622-5501 or accessing YBR online. The Benefits Center provides personalized assistance and guidance, helping employees navigate their pension options effectively​(ConocoPhillips_Your_Ret…).

With the current political climate we are in it is important to keep up with current news and remain knowledgeable about your benefits.
ConocoPhillips offers a defined benefit pension plan called the ConocoPhillips Retirement Plan, vesting employees after three years. Benefits are calculated based on final average salary and years of service. The ConocoPhillips Savings Plan (CPSP) is the company’s 401(k) plan, matching 6% of contributions and adding a discretionary 3% based on performance. The plan includes immediate 100% vesting and supports traditional and Roth contributions. [Source: ConocoPhillips Benefits Overview, 2022, p. 20]
Merger and Layoffs: ConocoPhillips is set to merge with Marathon Oil in a deal worth over $22 billion, which will likely lead to at least 500 job cuts. The merger aims to achieve $500 million in cost savings and increased operational efficiency, though it may result in localized negative impacts, particularly in Houston (Sources: KTRH, Yahoo News). Financial Performance: ConocoPhillips reported strong financial results for the first half of 2024, with a production increase and substantial cash flow. The company generated $10.2 billion in cash from operations (Source: ConocoPhillips). Operational Strategy: The merger is part of a broader consolidation trend in the oil and gas industry, aiming to enhance production and shareholder value (Source: KTRH).
ConocoPhillips grants stock options and RSUs to incentivize employees. Stock options allow employees to buy shares at a set price after vesting, while RSUs are awarded with vesting conditions such as tenure or performance. In 2022, ConocoPhillips focused on RSUs to retain talent and align with strategic goals. This continued in 2023 and 2024, with broader RSU programs and performance-linked stock options. Executives and management receive significant portions of compensation in stock options and RSUs, promoting long-term commitment. [Source: ConocoPhillips Annual Reports 2022-2024, p. 91]
ConocoPhillips made notable changes to its healthcare benefits in 2022, including expanded preventive care and chronic disease management services. The company introduced new telehealth options and wellness programs by 2023. In 2024, ConocoPhillips continued to focus on comprehensive employee healthcare and integrating innovative solutions. The strategy aimed to support overall health with enhanced mental health resources and preventive care services. ConocoPhillips’ updates reflected a commitment to maintaining robust benefits and addressing employee needs effectively.
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For more information you can reach the plan administrator for ConocoPhillips at p.o. box 4783 Houston, TX 77079; or by calling them at 918-661-6199.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1163165/000119312523077649/d367442d10k.htm - Page 9, https://hrcpdocctr.conocophillips.com/Documents/HR-Benefits-documents/AE/Retiree_Handbook.pdf - Page 18, https://static.conocophillips.com/files/resources/conocophillips-pension-plan_implementation-stateme.pdf - Page 13, https://hrcpdocctr.conocophillips.com/Documents/HR-Benefits-documents/2022_SARs-ConocoPhillips.pdf - Page 22, https://hrcpdocctr.conocophillips.com/Documents/2024_Annual_Enrollment/COBRA_Guide.pdf - Page 15, https://hrcpdocctr.conocophillips.com/Documents/SPD/Savings_SPD.pdf - Page 25, https://retiree.uhc.com/content/dam/retiree/pdf/conocophillips/2024/2024-PG-ConocoPhillips-15750.pdf - Page 20, https://retiree.uhc.com/content/dam/retiree/pdf/conocophillips/2022/2022_Plan_guide_ConocoPhillips_15750-15773.pdf - Page 27, https://hrcpdocctr.conocophillips.com/Documents/2023_Annual_Enrollment/COBRA_Guide.pdf - Page 30, https://retiree.uhc.com/content/dam/retiree/pdf/conocophillips/2023/2023-conocophillips-pg-15750.pdf - Page 35

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