Financial Intel Monthly

One silver lining in the current bear market is that this could be a good time to convert assets from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Converted assets are subject to federal income tax in the year of conversion, which might be a substantial tax bill. However, if assets in your traditional IRA have lost value, you will pay taxes on a lower asset base when you convert. If all conditions are met, the Roth account will incur no further income tax liability for you or your designated beneficiaries, no matter how much growth the account experiences.

With approximately 94% of American workers covered by Social Security and 65 million people currently receiving benefits, keeping Social Security healthy is a major concern.1 Social Security isn't in danger of going broke — it's financed primarily through payroll taxes — but its financial health is declining, and benefits may eventually be reduced unless Congress acts.

Each year, the Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds release a detailed report to Congress that assesses the financial health and outlook of this program. The most recent report, released on June 2, 2022, shows that the effects of the pandemic were not as significant as projected in last year's report — a bit of good news this year.

Could Lump-Sums for Grandfathered Southern California Edison employees be on the decline? The September interest rates, which Southern California Edison uses to determine lump sum values for everyone who retires in 2022 were released in October. We now have new monthly segment rates which show that interest rates are continuing to rise. Rates have been steadily increasing over the past year and with the recent announcement of next year's interest rates we are very likely to see a reduction in lump-sum values for Southern California Edison employees who retire in 2023. Southern California Edison interest rates decreased in 2020 causing 2021 lump sums to hit record highs. Based on the current trend of interest rates and monetary policy announcements it is likely that rates seen in 2020 will be the lowest for the foreseeable future - meaning that the Lump Sum Values for Southern California Edison employees who retired in 2021 will likely be the highest for the foreseeable future. When interest rates move up or down, your pension lump sum amount will move in an inverse relationship. 

The Markets (as of market close July 29, 2022)

During the intensely volatile first 100 trading days of 2022, the stocks of companies in the S&P 500 index delivered their worst performance since 1970.¹ The S&P 500 continued to tumble, and the benchmark index descended into a bear market — typically defined as a sustained drop in stock prices of at least 20% — on June 13, 2022. When the market closed, the S&P 500 had dropped 21.8% from its January 3 peak, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ, already in bear territory, had plunged 32.7% from its November 19, 2021 peak.²

Interest rates are trending upward, and if this trend continues ExxonMobil lump-sum payments will drop again in the fourth quarter of this year. The IRS has recently released the Segment rates for the month of May, recorded at: 3.23% / 4.59% / 4.69%. May's segment rates saw an increase of about 0.3% (in the second segment), which is a substantial jump for a single month.  This ongoing trend upward looks to be an early indicator of bad news for ExxonMobil employees opting for a lump-sum in the future.

ConocoPhillips employees considering the lump sum option on their pension payment may have an opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates in Q3 2022. With Q4 projecting to have higher rates, retiring during Q3 may be the last opportunity to avoid a reduced lump-sum. May's segment rates were just released and they are 3.23%/4.59%/4.69%. These rates increased by about 0.3% (in the second segment) since April, which is a very large increase for a single month. 

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Many KP employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, are now seeing a significant decrease in their value. New segment rates have been released and there was a 0.3% increase in the second segment over the previous month. The second segment is the most impactful so if you have a pension of $1,000,000 you could see a reduction of about $30,000 simply by commencing your benefit in July as opposed to June. This is because when KP employees elect the month they would like to begin their pension, KP looks back two months to calculate the rates for the pension disbursement. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa. Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. This trend culminated in record lows for individuals who commenced their benefits in December of 2020. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing rapidly, causing a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

Many Chevron employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, will now see a significant decrease in their value. With short, medium, and long-term rates rising significantly over the last month, the higher average rates will result in lower lump-sums for those retiring in August of 2022. This is because when Chevron employees elect the month they would like to begin their pension, Chevron looks back at the third, fourth, and fifth months' rates to calculate the pension disbursement. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa.

Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. This trend culminated in record lows for individuals who commenced their benefits in December of 2020. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing quickly, there has been a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

Nearly three quarters of workers and 77% of retirees in a recent survey said they remain at least somewhat confident that they will experience a comfortable retirement, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Nevertheless, a third of workers and a quarter of retirees felt less confident this year due to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, with many respondents citing inflation as the reason.

Not surprisingly, those feeling less confident were also more likely to report poor health, lower income and saving rates, and higher debt. Women were much more likely than men to report lower confidence levels.