Financial Intel Monthly

Financial markets reacted turbulently to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10, 2023, followed two days later by the failure of Signature Bank of New York. With $209 billion in assets and $175 billion in deposits, SVB was the nation's 16th largest bank and the second largest to fail in U.S. history. ^1-2

This news was alarming to savers who worried their own bank accounts could be at risk and investors who feared a wider financial crisis. To help restore confidence in the U.S. financial system, the federal government pledged to make all depositors whole and to support other banks that might face liquidity issues stemming from the rapid rise in interest rates. ³

These events have drawn new attention to how banks operate and the risks they take to earn money on customer deposits, as well as the government's role in regulating and supervising bank activities.

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2022)
October saw stocks close higher for the first monthly gain since July. Investors were uplifted by hopes that the Federal Reserve will pull back from its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. In addition, solid third-quarter earnings could be a sign that the economy can withstand the battle to lower inflation. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains led by the Dow, which rose nearly 14.0%. The Russell 2000 gained about 11.0%, followed by the Global Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.

Many employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, are now seeing a significant decrease in their value. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa. Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing rapidly, causing a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2022)

Through the first half of August, the stock market continued to ride July's rally. Including the first two weeks of August, stocks had posted four consecutive weekly gains — the longest weekly rally of 2022. The latest inflation data showed prices had fallen in July, bolstering investor confidence that the Fed may begin to reel in its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. By mid-August, the S&P 500 had recouped half of its losses from the beginning of the year, and the Nasdaq had risen over 20.0% from its low in June. U.S. corporate profits rose 9.1% to a fresh record high of $2.62 trillion in the second quarter of 2022, following a 4.9% drop in the previous period. It appeared that even if the Fed continued its hawkish push to get inflation down to the 2.0% target, the economy had thus far been resilient, with the labor market continuing to show strength, while industrial production advanced.

Could Lump-Sums for Grandfathered Southern California Edison employees be on the decline? The September interest rates, which Southern California Edison uses to determine lump sum values for everyone who retires in 2022 were released in October. We now have new monthly segment rates which show that interest rates are continuing to rise. Rates have been steadily increasing over the past year and with the recent announcement of next year's interest rates we are very likely to see a reduction in lump-sum values for Southern California Edison employees who retire in 2023. Southern California Edison interest rates decreased in 2020 causing 2021 lump sums to hit record highs. Based on the current trend of interest rates and monetary policy announcements it is likely that rates seen in 2020 will be the lowest for the foreseeable future - meaning that the Lump Sum Values for Southern California Edison employees who retired in 2021 will likely be the highest for the foreseeable future. When interest rates move up or down, your pension lump sum amount will move in an inverse relationship. 

ConocoPhillips employees considering the lump sum option on their pension payment may have an opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates in Q3 2022. With Q4 projecting to have higher rates, retiring during Q3 may be the last opportunity to avoid a reduced lump-sum. May's segment rates were just released and they are 3.23%/4.59%/4.69%. These rates increased by about 0.3% (in the second segment) since April, which is a very large increase for a single month. 

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Many KP employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, are now seeing a significant decrease in their value. New segment rates have been released and there was a 0.3% increase in the second segment over the previous month. The second segment is the most impactful so if you have a pension of $1,000,000 you could see a reduction of about $30,000 simply by commencing your benefit in July as opposed to June. This is because when KP employees elect the month they would like to begin their pension, KP looks back two months to calculate the rates for the pension disbursement. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa. Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. This trend culminated in record lows for individuals who commenced their benefits in December of 2020. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing rapidly, causing a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

Many Chevron employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, will now see a significant decrease in their value. With short, medium, and long-term rates rising significantly over the last month, the higher average rates will result in lower lump-sums for those retiring in August of 2022. This is because when Chevron employees elect the month they would like to begin their pension, Chevron looks back at the third, fourth, and fifth months' rates to calculate the pension disbursement. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa.

Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. This trend culminated in record lows for individuals who commenced their benefits in December of 2020. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing quickly, there has been a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

Interest rates are a key driver of most financial assets. While most often referenced in relation to the bond market, rates are also a key input in traditional equity valuation models, which incorporate market interest rates to determine the appropriate rate to discount future cash flows. Interest rates are an essential element in bond pricing and the yield that investors require to own a particular fixed-income security. Since hitting an all-time low in 2020, interest rates increased in 2021 and have continued that climb higher thus far in 2022. This has put pressure on fixed incomes and certain areas of the equity market, which has led to stress in certain areas of the stock market, such as growth stocks, which can be sensitive to interest rate shocks. With that in mind, let’s examine why rates have been moving up, and whether this should be a cause for concern for Fortune 500 employees.

As the economy continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic over the past year, you may have noticed the term ‘inflation’ coming up in the news. But don’t let it scare you! The fact is, some inflation is good because it means the economy is bouncing back.

“Bouncing back” is exactly what it sounds like; stock and bond prices may show some volatility in the short term, as the market and the economy adjust to find a new equilibrium. That’s why, like always, it’s best to stay focused on your long-term financial goals rather than worry over any short-term noise.