Financial Intel Monthly

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2023)

Stocks declined for the third straight month in October, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here ending the month notably lower. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 endured their worst October since 2018. The S&P 500, down for three straight months, had its worst three-month performance since the period ended June 2022. The Nasdaq also had its worst October since 2018, down about 11.0% over the past three months, marking its poorest three-month performance since the August-October period in 2022. This was not a good month for the Dow, which suffered its worst October since 2020.

The Markets (third quarter through September 29, 2023)

The positive momentum of the first two quarters of the year did not carry over to the third quarter. Inflation continued to prove stubborn throughout the third quarter, moderating somewhat, but not enough to curb the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy. Crude oil and gasoline prices soared during the summer. Job gains, while steady, declined throughout the third quarter. The housing sector slowed on rising mortgage rates and dwindling inventory. The third quarter saw most of the market sectors decline from the second quarter. Utilities, real estate, information technology, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary fell the furthest, while energy rose by more than 16.0%.

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2023)

August proved to be a tough month for stocks, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here ending the month notably lower. Investors tried to decipher mixed economic data throughout the month, attempting to gauge the course of the economy, while trying to determine what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates moving forward.

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, it did not meet in August, so interest rates remained unchanged. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (see below) and reiterated the Fed's intent to continue its restrictive policy until interest rates fell to 2.0%.

The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2023)

Stocks closed higher in July, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting notable gains. Both the stock market in particular, and the economy in general, have proven to be resilient in 2023, despite rising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve, in its endeavor to bring inflation down to the government's 2.0% target, hiked interest rates another 25.0 basis points in July, to the highest level in 22 years (see below). However, there are clear signs that inflation is finally receding. The Consumer Price Index and the personal consumption expenditures price index saw their respective 12-month rates fall to the lowest levels in nearly two years. Import and export prices dipped lower in July, as did producer prices.

Three important developments occurred recently in the world of federal student loans: the U.S. Supreme Court blocked an executive order offering loan cancellation to certain borrowers; Congress set an expiration date for the payment moratorium that has been in effect since March 2020; and new student loan interest rates have been set for the 2023–2024 school year. Here are the details.

Financial markets reacted turbulently to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10, 2023, followed two days later by the failure of Signature Bank of New York. With $209 billion in assets and $175 billion in deposits, SVB was the nation's 16th largest bank and the second largest to fail in U.S. history. ^1-2

This news was alarming to savers who worried their own bank accounts could be at risk and investors who feared a wider financial crisis. To help restore confidence in the U.S. financial system, the federal government pledged to make all depositors whole and to support other banks that might face liquidity issues stemming from the rapid rise in interest rates. ³

These events have drawn new attention to how banks operate and the risks they take to earn money on customer deposits, as well as the government's role in regulating and supervising bank activities.

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2022)
October saw stocks close higher for the first monthly gain since July. Investors were uplifted by hopes that the Federal Reserve will pull back from its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. In addition, solid third-quarter earnings could be a sign that the economy can withstand the battle to lower inflation. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains led by the Dow, which rose nearly 14.0%. The Russell 2000 gained about 11.0%, followed by the Global Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.

Many employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, are now seeing a significant decrease in their value. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa. Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing rapidly, causing a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2022)

Through the first half of August, the stock market continued to ride July's rally. Including the first two weeks of August, stocks had posted four consecutive weekly gains — the longest weekly rally of 2022. The latest inflation data showed prices had fallen in July, bolstering investor confidence that the Fed may begin to reel in its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. By mid-August, the S&P 500 had recouped half of its losses from the beginning of the year, and the Nasdaq had risen over 20.0% from its low in June. U.S. corporate profits rose 9.1% to a fresh record high of $2.62 trillion in the second quarter of 2022, following a 4.9% drop in the previous period. It appeared that even if the Fed continued its hawkish push to get inflation down to the 2.0% target, the economy had thus far been resilient, with the labor market continuing to show strength, while industrial production advanced.

Could Lump-Sums for Grandfathered Southern California Edison employees be on the decline? The September interest rates, which Southern California Edison uses to determine lump sum values for everyone who retires in 2022 were released in October. We now have new monthly segment rates which show that interest rates are continuing to rise. Rates have been steadily increasing over the past year and with the recent announcement of next year's interest rates we are very likely to see a reduction in lump-sum values for Southern California Edison employees who retire in 2023. Southern California Edison interest rates decreased in 2020 causing 2021 lump sums to hit record highs. Based on the current trend of interest rates and monetary policy announcements it is likely that rates seen in 2020 will be the lowest for the foreseeable future - meaning that the Lump Sum Values for Southern California Edison employees who retired in 2021 will likely be the highest for the foreseeable future. When interest rates move up or down, your pension lump sum amount will move in an inverse relationship.