Financial Intel Monthly

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2022)
October saw stocks close higher for the first monthly gain since July. Investors were uplifted by hopes that the Federal Reserve will pull back from its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. In addition, solid third-quarter earnings could be a sign that the economy can withstand the battle to lower inflation. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains led by the Dow, which rose nearly 14.0%. The Russell 2000 gained about 11.0%, followed by the Global Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.

Many employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, are now seeing a significant decrease in their value. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa. Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing rapidly, causing a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2022)

Through the first half of August, the stock market continued to ride July's rally. Including the first two weeks of August, stocks had posted four consecutive weekly gains — the longest weekly rally of 2022. The latest inflation data showed prices had fallen in July, bolstering investor confidence that the Fed may begin to reel in its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. By mid-August, the S&P 500 had recouped half of its losses from the beginning of the year, and the Nasdaq had risen over 20.0% from its low in June. U.S. corporate profits rose 9.1% to a fresh record high of $2.62 trillion in the second quarter of 2022, following a 4.9% drop in the previous period. It appeared that even if the Fed continued its hawkish push to get inflation down to the 2.0% target, the economy had thus far been resilient, with the labor market continuing to show strength, while industrial production advanced.

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law on August 16, 2022, includes health-care and energy-related provisions, a new corporate alternative minimum tax, and an excise tax on certain corporate stock buybacks. Additional funding is also provided to the IRS. Some significant provisions in the Act are discussed below.

Interest rates are trending upward, and if this trend continues ExxonMobil lump-sum payments will drop again in the fourth quarter of this year. The IRS has recently released the Segment rates for the month of May, recorded at: 3.23% / 4.59% / 4.69%. May's segment rates saw an increase of about 0.3% (in the second segment), which is a substantial jump for a single month.  This ongoing trend upward looks to be an early indicator of bad news for ExxonMobil employees opting for a lump-sum in the future.

ConocoPhillips employees considering the lump sum option on their pension payment may have an opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates in Q3 2022. With Q4 projecting to have higher rates, retiring during Q3 may be the last opportunity to avoid a reduced lump-sum. May's segment rates were just released and they are 3.23%/4.59%/4.69%. These rates increased by about 0.3% (in the second segment) since April, which is a very large increase for a single month. 

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Many KP employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, are now seeing a significant decrease in their value. New segment rates have been released and there was a 0.3% increase in the second segment over the previous month. The second segment is the most impactful so if you have a pension of $1,000,000 you could see a reduction of about $30,000 simply by commencing your benefit in July as opposed to June. This is because when KP employees elect the month they would like to begin their pension, KP looks back two months to calculate the rates for the pension disbursement. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa. Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. This trend culminated in record lows for individuals who commenced their benefits in December of 2020. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing rapidly, causing a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

Many Chevron employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, will now see a significant decrease in their value. With short, medium, and long-term rates rising significantly over the last month, the higher average rates will result in lower lump-sums for those retiring in August of 2022. This is because when Chevron employees elect the month they would like to begin their pension, Chevron looks back at the third, fourth, and fifth months' rates to calculate the pension disbursement. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa.

Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. This trend culminated in record lows for individuals who commenced their benefits in December of 2020. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing quickly, there has been a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

Interest rates are a key driver of most financial assets. While most often referenced in relation to the bond market, rates are also a key input in traditional equity valuation models, which incorporate market interest rates to determine the appropriate rate to discount future cash flows. Interest rates are an essential element in bond pricing and the yield that investors require to own a particular fixed-income security. Since hitting an all-time low in 2020, interest rates increased in 2021 and have continued that climb higher thus far in 2022. This has put pressure on fixed incomes and certain areas of the equity market, which has led to stress in certain areas of the stock market, such as growth stocks, which can be sensitive to interest rate shocks. With that in mind, let’s examine why rates have been moving up, and whether this should be a cause for concern for Fortune 500 employees.

DON’T PANIC

Both stocks and bonds are off to one of their worst starts to the year in history. The S&P 500 Index declined -12.92% through the end of April 2022, and other broad market indices were similarly down double digits.¹

What’s worse, investors, like those living in Texas or New York, are losing nearly as much on the fixed income side of their portfolios as they are on the equity side. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index, a broad measure of domestic fixed income, suffered its largest quarterly loss (-5.93%) since 1980 to start the year² and is down -9.50% through the end of April. The current environment has left investors feeling like there is nowhere to hide, and even prompted some to exit markets or go to cash, which is why we find it important to discuss this with our clients from Fortune 500.

Such a rash response could lead investors to miss out on an eventual rebound since historical equity performance post-corrections, as well as strong underlying economic fundamentals, suggest a bounce back in stocks will occur sooner rather than later. If you are unsure about your specific situation, feel free to speak to one of our retirement-focused advisors today!