Financial Intel Monthly

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2023)

August proved to be a tough month for stocks, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here ending the month notably lower. Investors tried to decipher mixed economic data throughout the month, attempting to gauge the course of the economy, while trying to determine what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates moving forward.

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, it did not meet in August, so interest rates remained unchanged. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (see below) and reiterated the Fed's intent to continue its restrictive policy until interest rates fell to 2.0%.

The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2023)

Stocks closed higher in July, with each of the benchmark indexes listed here posting notable gains. Both the stock market in particular, and the economy in general, have proven to be resilient in 2023, despite rising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve, in its endeavor to bring inflation down to the government's 2.0% target, hiked interest rates another 25.0 basis points in July, to the highest level in 22 years (see below). However, there are clear signs that inflation is finally receding. The Consumer Price Index and the personal consumption expenditures price index saw their respective 12-month rates fall to the lowest levels in nearly two years. Import and export prices dipped lower in July, as did producer prices.

On June 8, 2023, the S&P 500 index closed at 4,293.93, just over 20% higher than its lowest recent closing value of 3,577.03 reached on October 12, 2022.¹ According to a common definition of market cycles, this indicated that the benchmark index was officially in a bull market after a bear market that began in January 2022. By this definition, the current bull market began on October 13, 2022, the day after the bear market ended at its lowest point.

The Markets (as of market close January 31, 2023)

January proved to be a bumpy ride for investors, with stocks ultimately ending higher to begin the new year, despite concerns that the economy may be headed toward a significant slowdown or even a recession. Nevertheless, each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted solid gains in January, led by the Nasdaq as tech stocks rebounded from a rough 2022. Stocks began the month by climbing higher over the first two weeks of January. However, equities lagged mid-month, only to rebound at the end of January, closing out the month on a positive note.

The Markets (as of market close October 31, 2022)
October saw stocks close higher for the first monthly gain since July. Investors were uplifted by hopes that the Federal Reserve will pull back from its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. In addition, solid third-quarter earnings could be a sign that the economy can withstand the battle to lower inflation. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted notable gains led by the Dow, which rose nearly 14.0%. The Russell 2000 gained about 11.0%, followed by the Global Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.

The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2022)

Through the first half of August, the stock market continued to ride July's rally. Including the first two weeks of August, stocks had posted four consecutive weekly gains — the longest weekly rally of 2022. The latest inflation data showed prices had fallen in July, bolstering investor confidence that the Fed may begin to reel in its aggressive interest-rate hike policy. By mid-August, the S&P 500 had recouped half of its losses from the beginning of the year, and the Nasdaq had risen over 20.0% from its low in June. U.S. corporate profits rose 9.1% to a fresh record high of $2.62 trillion in the second quarter of 2022, following a 4.9% drop in the previous period. It appeared that even if the Fed continued its hawkish push to get inflation down to the 2.0% target, the economy had thus far been resilient, with the labor market continuing to show strength, while industrial production advanced.

DON’T PANIC

Both stocks and bonds are off to one of their worst starts to the year in history. The S&P 500 Index declined -12.92% through the end of April 2022, and other broad market indices were similarly down double digits.¹

What’s worse, investors, like those living in Texas or New York, are losing nearly as much on the fixed income side of their portfolios as they are on the equity side. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index, a broad measure of domestic fixed income, suffered its largest quarterly loss (-5.93%) since 1980 to start the year² and is down -9.50% through the end of April. The current environment has left investors feeling like there is nowhere to hide, and even prompted some to exit markets or go to cash, which is why we find it important to discuss this with our clients from Fortune 500.

Such a rash response could lead investors to miss out on an eventual rebound since historical equity performance post-corrections, as well as strong underlying economic fundamentals, suggest a bounce back in stocks will occur sooner rather than later. If you are unsure about your specific situation, feel free to speak to one of our retirement-focused advisors today!

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