Financial Intel Monthly

“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”.

You’ve likely been seeing headlines about the recent volatility in the market. While historically this is nothing new, it can be difficult to watch your account values fluctuate.

As investors, we find that maintaining a long-term perspective helps keep us grounded. We know that the market goes up more often than it goes down and that short-term fluctuations in price indicate a healthy market of buyers and sellers.

As the economy continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic over the past year, you may have noticed the term ‘inflation’ coming up in the news. But don’t let it scare you! The fact is, some inflation is good because it means the economy is bouncing back.

“Bouncing back” is exactly what it sounds like; stock and bond prices may show some volatility in the short term, as the market and the economy adjust to find a new equilibrium. That’s why, like always, it’s best to stay focused on your long-term financial goals rather than worry over any short-term noise.

Recently, you may have seen some headlines talking about an "inverted yield curve" and what it may mean for the economy. An inverted yield curve is just one indicator of the economy's possible direction, so let's put these headlines into context.

First, what is the yield curve, and what does it show? The yield curve is a graphical representation of interest rates (yields) paid out by US Treasury bonds. A normal yield curve shows increasingly higher yields for longer-dated bonds, creating an upward swing. An inverted curve has a downward slope, indicating that shorter-dated bonds yield more than longer-dated bonds, which isn't typical.

The stock market isn’t known for its emotional stability. When the markets react emotionally, it’s imperative to think rationally. Although no one can predict the future, panicked selling during a downturn is often the worst thing you can do.

Prevention is the best medicine for our health – washing our hands, not touching our face in public, getting enough rest, eating healthy and avoiding contact with individuals who are ill or have been exposed to someone ill. Similarly, planning for potential volatility before you experience it is vital.

We know the market has experienced some volatility lately, which may provoke some anxiety when you open your most recent statement. It can be hard to stomach seeing some red in your account! But don’t be alarmed – changes in value are typical and expected when investing in the market.

As investors, we find that maintaining a long-term perspective helps keep us grounded. We know that the market goes up more often than it goes down and that short-term fluctuations in price indicate a healthy market of buyers and sellers. It can feel counterintuitive, but the current environment may be a buying opportunity! In fact, there’s Nobel Prize-winning research into the effect that losses have on our behavior. We encourage you to take a moment to review the linked article! If you still feel uncertain about your specific situation, feel free to give us a call and one of our retirement-focused advisors in your area can speak with you.

Interest rates are trending upward, and if this trend continues ExxonMobil lump-sum payments will drop again in the fourth quarter of this year. The IRS has recently released the Segment rates for the month of April, recorded at: 3.00% / 4.22% / 4.17%. April's segment rates saw an increase of about 0.5% (in the second segment), which is a substantial jump for a single month.  This ongoing trend upward looks to be an early indicator of bad news for ExxonMobil employees opting for a lump-sum in the future.

ConocoPhillips employees considering the lump sum option on their pension payment may have an opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates in Q2 2022. With higher interest rates taking effect in Q3, and Q4 projecting to have even higher rates, retiring during Q2 may be the last opportunity to avoid a reduced lump-sum. April's segment rates were just released and they are 3.00%/4.22%/4.17%. These rates increased by about 0.5% (in the second segment) since March, which is a very large increase for a single month. 

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Many KP employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, are now seeing a significant decrease in their value. New segment rates have been released and there was a 0.5% increase in the second segment over the previous month. The second segment is the most impactful so if you have a pension of $1,000,000 you could see a reduction of about $50,000 simply by commencing your benefit in June as opposed to May. This is because when KP employees elect the month they would like to begin their pension, KP looks back two months to calculate the rates for the pension disbursement. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa. Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. This trend culminated in record lows for individuals who commenced their benefits in December of 2020. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing rapidly, causing a large reduction in pension lump-sums values.

Many Chevron employees who are waiting to commence their pension lump-sums, will now see a significant decrease in their value. With short, medium, and long-term rates rising significantly over the last month, the higher average rates will result in lower lump-sums for those retiring in July of 2022. This is because when Chevron employees elect the month they would like to begin their pension, Chevron looks back at the third, fourth, and fifth months' rates to calculate the pension disbursement. When these interest rates move up or down, your lump sum amount will move in an inverse direction, so if interest rates increase, your lump sum amount will decrease and vice versa.

Through the pandemic, interest rates dropped dramatically which greatly increased many lump sum payments. This trend culminated in record lows for individuals who commenced their benefits in December of 2020. However, since then this trend has shifted, as interest rates have been increasing quickly, there has been a large reduction in pension lump-sum values.

In March 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the most common measure of inflation, rose at an annual rate of 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981.¹ It's not surprising that a Gallup poll at the end of March found that one out of six Americans considers inflation to be the most important problem facing the United States.²

When inflation began rising in the spring of 2021, many economists, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, believed the increase would be transitory and subside over a period of months. One year later, inflation has proven to be more stubborn than expected. It may be helpful to look at some of the forces behind rising prices, the Fed's plan to combat them, and early signs that inflation may be easing.